Try the model
BGSU

Bowling Green 31 at Akron 28

AKR
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · InfoCision Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:41 · Noah Gettman punt for 44 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Home team on offense−5.3Pregame prior−22.6Garbage-time factor−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score differential−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:15: Christian Sims 3 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick) — BGSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:58: Clyde Price III 13 Yd pass from DJ Irons (Noah Perez Kick) — AKR win probability +3.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:37: Alex Adams 36 Yd pass from DJ Irons (Noah Perez Kick) — AKR win probability +22.2 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 12:12: Odieu Hiliare 18 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick) — BGSU win probability +14.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:11: Alex Adams 41 Yd pass from DJ Irons (Noah Perez Kick) — AKR win probability +22.7 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 4 of 6BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 12:40BGSU 4th & 2 at AKR 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    71.1%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:29AKR 4th & 11 at BGSU 11, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.0%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    29.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−2.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:53BGSU 4th & 22 at AKR 39, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    70.9%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:41AKR 4th & 14 at BGSU 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    26.1%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:21BGSU 4th & 3 at AKR 44, up 10
    Close callPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    74.0%−0.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:01AKR 4th & 5 at BGSU 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    23.9%−1.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:50AKR 4th & 14 at BGSU 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:22BGSU 4th & 3 at AKR 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    62.3%−2.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:13AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 40, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:16BGSU 4th & 7 at AKR 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    66.7%−4.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:33AKR 4th & 6 at AKR 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.9%−5.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 1 of 2BGSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 7:37AKR Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 12:12BGSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:11AKR Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AKRDrive 1TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.4%
Clyde Price III 3 Yd Run (Noah Perez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 12:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
21.0%
PaSean Wimberly run for 1 yd to the Akron 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3FG
1 play · 28 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 3:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
-29
21.5%
Jalen Burton 29 Yd Interception Return (Mason Lawler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4PUNT
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:0778% → 77%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
22.0%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Odieu Hiliare for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Rishad Hence) to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
21.9%
Jaison Patterson run for 13 yds to the Akron 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 22
OPP 39
0
22.9%
Sami Sir punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
19.7%
Christian Sims 3 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT
1 play · 48 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 10:41
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
21.3%
Noah Gettman punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 7:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.4%
Andrew Bench 3 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 3:58
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
24.1%
Clyde Price III 13 Yd pass from DJ Irons (Noah Perez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9PUNT
1 play · 27 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 1:21
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
21.2%
Sami Sir punt for 41 yds , Bobby Golden returns for no gain to the Akron 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10DOWNS
2 plays · 39 yds · 0:0121% → 21%
Q2 0:01
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
21.1%
pass incomplete to Daniel GeorgeSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
20.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Clyde Price III for 3 yds to the Akron 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 12:5020% → 19%
Q3 12:50
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
19.7%
Noah Gettman punt for 48 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
19.7%
Clyde Price III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 43Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
19.2%
DJ Irons pass incomplete to Alex Adams, broken up by Deshawn Jones Jr.Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+13
18.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 13 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
21.0%
AKRON Penalty, Offensive holding (Nate Williams) to the Akron 46Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 46
0
19.1%
pass incomplete to Alex AdamsSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 20
OWN 46
+6
18.8%
Clyde Price III run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 48
0
18.7%
DJ Irons pass incomplete to Daniel George, broken up by Deshawn Jones Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12INT
7 plays · 35 yds · 10:0580% → 84%
Q3 10:05
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
19.6%
Matt McDonald pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
18.6%
Jamal Johnson run for 18 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
17.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 7 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+2
16.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 2 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
17.2%
Matt McDonald run for 4 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
16.5%
Jamal Johnson run for 9 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-5
16.3%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (CJ Lewis) to the Akron 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 7:3739% → 42%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
38.6%
Alex Adams 36 Yd pass from DJ Irons (Noah Perez Kick)Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
37.8%
Clyde Price III run for 4 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
40.2%
DJ Irons pass incomplete to TJ Banks BOWLING GREEN Penalty, off-side (Blaine Spires) to the Akron 42Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+8
41.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Clyde Price III for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
42.0%
DJ Irons run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
42.3%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 4 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+8
41.9%
DJ Irons run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14DOWNS
12 plays · 42 yds · 2:2267% → 69%
Q3 2:22
4TH & 3
OPP 32
0
32.9%
pass incomplete to Tyrone BrodenSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
34.2%
Jamal Johnson run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-5
33.3%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (Alex Wollschlaeger) to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
34.6%
pass incomplete to Tyrone BrodenSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+16
35.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 16 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
31.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Cavon Croom for 2 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
31.6%
pass incomplete to Tyrone BrodenSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+8
32.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 8 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
30.8%
Jaison Patterson run for 10 yds to the Akron 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
30.8%
Jamal Johnson run for 1 yd to the Akron 38Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+7
30.8%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 7 yds to the Akron 31Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-1
30.7%
Jaison Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:1338% → 40%
Q3 0:13
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+9
37.9%
Noah Gettman punt for 57 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for 9 yds to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
37.8%
Clyde Price III run for 1 yd to the Akron 33Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+6
37.6%
DJ Irons run for 6 yds to the Akron 39Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+1
39.7%
Clyde Price III run for 1 yd to the Akron 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 2:4865% → 85%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
34.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 9 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+3
33.3%
Jamal Johnson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
34.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive holding (Jalen Grant) to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 14
+59
34.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 59 yds to the Akron 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
29.1%
Jaison Patterson run for 4 yds to the Akron 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+5
29.1%
Jaison Patterson run for 5 yds to the Akron 18Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+18
14.8%
Odieu Hiliare 18 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 8:1138% → 26%
Q4 8:11
3RD & 16
OPP 41
+41
37.5%
Alex Adams 41 Yd pass from DJ Irons (Noah Perez Kick)Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.7%
DJ Irons run for 5 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
25.6%
Clyde Price III run for 10 yds to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-8
25.6%
DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the Akron 32Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 32
+8
22.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to TJ Banks for 8 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+15
22.7%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 15 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
29.7%
Clyde Price III run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
34.2%
DJ Irons pass complete to Clyde Price III AKRON Penalty, Offensive holding (Shocky Jacques-Louis) to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 20
OPP 45
0
26.3%
Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+4
26.1%
DJ Irons run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 27 yds · 6:1672% → 88%
Q4 6:16
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
28.2%
Sami Sir punt for 44 ydsSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+24
14.4%
Jamal Johnson run for 24 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
12.4%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
12.5%
Jamal Johnson run for 3 yds to the Akron 46Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
12.5%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Odieu Hiliare, broken up by Tony Grimes Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 1:3330% → 22%
Q4 1:33
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
30.3%
pass incomplete to Alex AdamsSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
20.2%
Clyde Price III run for 5 yds to the Akron 7Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+4
19.8%
DJ Irons run for 4 yds to the Akron 11Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+2
19.6%
DJ Irons run for 2 yds to the Akron 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
21.3%
DJ Irons pass complete to Daniel George for 13 yds to the Akron 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
22.9%
AKRON Penalty, false start (Nate Williams) to the Akron 21Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 21
-7
21.3%
DJ Irons sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 14Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 22
OWN 14
+24
19.6%
DJ Irons run for 24 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
24.1%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
24.1%
DJ Irons pass incomplete to TJ Banks, broken up by Darren AndersSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+4
22.0%
DJ Irons run for 4 yds to the Akron 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20Uncategorized
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2790% → 88%
Q4 1:27
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+1
10.4%
Jamal Johnson run for 1 yd to the Akron 33Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+1
11.2%
Jamal Johnson run for 1 yd to the Akron 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 12
OPP 34
-1
10.6%
Jamal Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 34Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
12.2%
Jamal Johnson run for 8 yds to the Akron 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:11
Alex Adams 41 Yd pass from DJ Irons (Noah Perez Kick)
+22.7
TD · Q3 7:37
Alex Adams 36 Yd pass from DJ Irons (Noah Perez Kick)
+22.2
TD · Q4 12:12
Odieu Hiliare 18 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick)
-14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com