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NIU

Northern Illinois 38 at Ball State 44

BALL
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:02 · Tom Foley punt for 42 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 181Home team on offense−28.5Pregame prior−0.5Score differential−3.5Garbage-time factor−13.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:49: Ethan Hampton pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 31 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +13.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:38: Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +12.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:09: John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 17 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK) — BALL win probability +29.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 6:43: Harrison Waylee run for 68 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +18.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:36: John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK) — BALL win probability +42.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 8 of 8NIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 11:43BALL 4th & 14 at BALL 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:52NIU 4th & 5 at BALL 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−3.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:13BALL 4th & 19 at BALL 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−1.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:45BALL 4th & 1 at NIU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    33.3%−2.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    34.1%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:02BALL 4th & 11 at NIU 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:39BALL 4th & 5 at NIU 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    19.8%−0.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:49NIU 4th & 5 at BALL 10, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−6.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:11BALL 4th & 8 at NIU 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:11BALL 4th & 8 at NIU 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:50NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 21, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:01NIU 4th & 20 at BALL 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−4.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:59BALL 4th & 7 at NIU 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−4.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:02NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:00NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 49, tied
    Numbers favored punt by 3.7 ptsWent for it · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.3%−3.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:19NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:51NIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:49NIU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:06BALL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:15BALL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:38NIU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:26BALL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:09BALL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:43NIU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:36BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−7.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:1736% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
36.3%
Carson Steele run for 8 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
36.3%
Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
36.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
36.3%
Jayshon Jackson run for 5 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
36.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for no gain to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-15
36.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Paddock,John pass complete deep right to Jackson,Jayshon for 17 yards to the NIU28 (Hansen,Jordan) PENALTY BSU Chop Block (Crowe,Ethan) 15 yards from NIU45 to BSU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 40
+6
36.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 6 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 11:43
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
37.4%
Lucas Borrow punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2TD
13 plays · 81 yds · 6:2462% → 65%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
37.6%
Harrison Waylee run for 6 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+9
37.5%
Ethan Hampton run for 9 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
37.5%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+11
37.5%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Fabian McCray for 11 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
37.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
37.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cole Tucker for 7 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
37.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
37.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 10 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
37.2%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cole Tucker for 9 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+4
37.1%
Justin Lynch run for 4 yds to the BalSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
37.1%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+1
37.1%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the BalSt 13Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+13
35.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 13 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2436% → 36%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.3%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
36.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Vaughn Pemberton for 1 yd to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
36.1%
John Paddock pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4MISSED FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0365% → 65%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
34.9%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the BalSt 15Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
34.9%
Harrison Waylee run for no gain to the BalSt 15Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+4
35.2%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 4 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+29
35.2%
John Richardson 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3936% → 35%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
36.0%
John Paddock run for 15 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
36.2%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
36.8%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Brady HuntSimilar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-12
36.1%
John Paddock sacked by Devonte O'Malley for a loss of 12 yards to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 0:13
4TH & 19
OWN 26
0
35.0%
Lucas Borrow punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 0:2265% → 70%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
34.6%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Fabian McCraySimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
34.7%
Jaiden Credle run for 9 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+52
29.6%
Harrison Waylee run for 52 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:0171% → 71%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
29.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hampton,Ethan rush left for 4 yards gain to the BSU21 (King,Kyle) PENALTY NIU Holding (Schooley,Matthew) 10 yards from BSU25 to BSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+8
29.3%
Justin Lynch run for 8 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 12
OPP 27
-7
28.6%
Ethan Hampton sacked by Tyler Potts for a loss of 7 yards to the BalSt 34 Ethan Hampton fumbled, recovered by BalSt Kyron Mims , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8MISSED FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:4331% → 29%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
30.5%
Carson Steele run for 12 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
31.5%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
31.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+6
31.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+3
31.4%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
31.6%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+18
31.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 18 yds to the NoIll 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
32.0%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+3
32.0%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 3 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
31.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q2 10:02
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+37
29.1%
Ben VonGunten 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 5:1373% → 86%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
27.4%
Harrison Waylee run for 7 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
27.0%
Jaiden Credle run for 5 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
27.2%
Justin Lynch run for 12 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
26.5%
Harrison Waylee run for no gain to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
26.7%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+7
26.8%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Fabian McCray for 7 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
26.5%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 7 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+1
26.4%
Justin Lynch run for 1 yd to the BalSt 38Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+7
26.7%
Justin Lynch run for 7 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
13.7%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 31 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 1:4318% → 26%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
17.6%
PENALTY BSU Illegal Snap (Crowe,Ethan) 5 yards from BSU30 to BSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+30
17.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 30 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
19.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Rico Barfield for 3 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+2
19.1%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
18.9%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 5
OPP 40
+10
18.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 10 yds to the NoIll 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
19.4%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
26.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 30 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 2:1776% → 85%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
24.0%
Justin Lynch run for 24 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
22.8%
Justin Lynch run for 2 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+8
22.9%
Justin Lynch run for 8 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
22.8%
PENALTY BSU Offside (Mims,Kyron) 5 yards from BSU41 to BSU36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 5
OPP 36
+11
22.7%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cole Tucker for 11 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
22.6%
Justin Lynch run for 10 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
22.6%
Justin Lynch run for 2 yds to the BalSt 13Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+3
19.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the BalSt 10Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
18.2%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
14.7%
John Richardson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12INT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:4422% → 29%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
22.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Will Jones for 3 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+5
22.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 5 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+11
22.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 11 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
21.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Will Jones for 7 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
22.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Will Jones for 4 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
29.4%
John Paddock pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2181% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.8%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Harrison Waylee for no gain to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
18.7%
Ethan Hampton pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2422% → 31%
Q3 13:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
21.6%
Jayshon Jackson run for 1 yd to the NoIll 5Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
21.6%
Shotgun Paddock,John pass incomplete short left to Jackson,Jayshon broken up by Brown,C.J. PENALTY NIU Holding (Knighten,Amariyun) 3 yards from NIU05 to NIU02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
22.1%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the NoIll 2Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
31.0%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3773% → 87%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
27.5%
Justin Lynch run for 13 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
26.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
50
+1
26.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+16
26.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cole Tucker for 16 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+22
25.8%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cole Tucker for 22 yds to the BalSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
25.6%
Harrison Waylee run for 11 yds to the BalSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
25.7%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the BalSt 1Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.4%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:2217% → 16%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
17.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 9 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
17.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 4 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
17.8%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
17.8%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
17.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
16.2%
Lucas Borrow punt for 46 ydsSimilar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
16.2%
Lucas Borrow punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 3:2186% → 88%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
14.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 5 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+6
14.4%
Harrison Waylee run for 6 yds to the NoIll 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
14.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 8 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+1
14.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the NoIll 21Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 1
OWN 21
0
14.5%
Justin Lynch run for no gain to the NoIll 21Similar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
12.3%
Tom Foley punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18TD
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:2415% → 26%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
15.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Nick Presley for 3 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+2
15.5%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+8
15.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 8 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
15.6%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
15.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Carson SteeleSimilar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+10
15.2%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Paddock,John pass incomplete short right to Abdur-Rahman,Amir broken up by McGarrell,Cyrus PENALTY NIU Holding (McGarrell,Cyrus) 10 yards from NIU37 to NIU27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+17
16.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 17 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
16.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Vaughn Pemberton for 7 yds to the NoIll 3Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
26.2%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19PUNT
14 plays · 26 yds · 4:5978% → 85%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
21.9%
Harrison Waylee run for 6 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
21.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 5 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
20.8%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+3
20.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+3
20.4%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+5
21.9%
PENALTY BSU Offside (Coll,Clayton) 5 yards from NIU45 to NIU50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+9
19.5%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 9 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
19.4%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Fabian McCraySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
19.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
19.5%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to George GumbsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
19.6%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Kacper RutkiewiczSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-10
19.9%
Ethan Hampton sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 20
OPP 49
0
15.5%
Tom Foley punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 1:5215% → 47%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
14.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 13 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
15.3%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
14.8%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Carson SteeleSimilar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+13
13.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 13 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
16.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 6 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+22
17.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 22 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
19.5%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the NoIll 32Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
19.3%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+15
17.5%
(08:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Paddock,John pass incomplete short left to Abdur-Rahman,Amir PENALTY NIU Pass Interference (Finley,Jacob) 15 yards from NIU32 to NIU17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
47.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 17 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2668% → 87%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
32.4%
Jaiden Credle run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
31.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+68
13.0%
Harrison Waylee run for 68 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 2:4413% → 24%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
13.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Carson Steele for 8 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+18
14.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 18 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
15.9%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+11
15.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 11 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
16.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Carson Steele for 3 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
18.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 6 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+8
16.7%
Carson Steele run for 8 yds to the NoIll 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
17.9%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
17.9%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
16.6%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-RahmanSimilar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
24.0%
Ben VonGunten 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:5786% → 88%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
13.7%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 21Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+1
14.0%
Justin Lynch run for 1 yd to the NoIll 22Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+8
15.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 8 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 2:02
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
11.7%
Tom Foley punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 1:2617% → 67%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
17.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 16 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
19.7%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Carson SteeleSimilar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+15
18.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 15 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
22.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Brady HuntSimilar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
21.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Will JonesSimilar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+12
19.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 12 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
25.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Carson Steele for 4 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+9
24.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 9 yds to the NoIll 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
24.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 10 yds to the NoIll 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
66.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:3051% → 48%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
49.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cole Tucker for 14 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
46.0%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cole Tucker for 10 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
42.9%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Fabian McCraySimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
44.1%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+1
46.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
52.1%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Fabian McCraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+47.9
TD · Q4 0:36
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)
+42.1
TD · Q4 8:09
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 17 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)
+29.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com