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CMU

Central Michigan 17 at Toledo 38

TOL
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:45 · Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 10 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense+21.4Score differential+16.6Pregame prior+5.4Garbage-time factor+4.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.9Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:56: Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +4.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:24: Micah Kelly run for 2 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +6.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:16: Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 11 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +10.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:59: Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +6.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:35: Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 18 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder PAT MISSED) — CMU win probability +8.8 pts (now 11%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 10:04CMU 4th & 4 at TOL 24, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%−<0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:47TOL 4th & 7 at CMU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:47CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:14TOL 4th & 25 at TOL 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−1.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:11CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 32, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:27CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:38CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:36CMU 4th & 6 at TOL 35, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%
    45% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:04TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 39, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:20TOL 4th & 10 at CMU 25, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:45TOL 4th & 17 at TOL 18, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−1.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:45CMU 4th & 4 at TOL 49, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.1%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:45CMU 4th & 5 at TOL 34, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:45CMU 4th & 7 at TOL 20, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−4.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:09TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:56CMU 4th & 10 at TOL 19, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    8.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−5.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:35CMU 4th & 20 at CMU 10, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 14:56TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:24TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:16TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:59TOL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:32CMU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:35CMU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    7.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:36TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 4:4836% → 36%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
64.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+1
64.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 43Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+10
64.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Finn Hogan for 10 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
64.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 1 yd to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+8
64.5%
Myles Bailey run for 8 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+8
64.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Cade Conley for 8 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
64.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+4
64.5%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 3
OPP 23
-1
64.5%
Marion Lukes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 24Similar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+42
63.8%
Marshall Meeder 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:1764% → 64%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
63.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-5
64.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
63.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 5 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+4
64.1%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
64.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 26 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
64.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
64.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the CMich 26Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
64.3%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+45
64.2%
Thomas Cluckey 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0036% → 36%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
63.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 6 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
63.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:47
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
64.1%
Luke Elzinga punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:3364% → 63%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
63.8%
Dequan Finn run for 12 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
64.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 13
OWN 36
-10
63.8%
FINN, Dequan pass to the left complete for 4 yards to MADDOX, Devin caught at the TOL40 and advanced to the TOL40 (KENT JR., Ronald) (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY TOL Holding on ATEMAN, Kelvin enforced 10 yards from the TOL36 to the TOL26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 23
OWN 26
0
63.6%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 23
OWN 26
-2
63.2%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 24Similar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 25
OWN 24
0
62.6%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 53 yds , Jordyn Williams returns for no gain to the CMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0337% → 37%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
63.3%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 22Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+9
63.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 9 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+1
62.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 1 yd to the CMich 32Similar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
63.3%
Luke Elzinga punt for 38 yds , Adam Beale returns for no gain to the Toled 32 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Kick Catch Interference on KENT JR., Ronald enforced (Ronald Kent Jr.) to the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:1565% → 70%
Q1 1:11
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+41
64.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 41 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
65.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Nick Rosi) to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+3
64.4%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+6
64.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 6 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
66.0%
Micah Kelly run for 9 yds to the CMich 1Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · -13 yds · 0:2031% → 31%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
68.7%
NICHOLS, Lew rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the CMU21 (CULPEPPER, Judge;WOLIVER, Adrian). PENALTY CMU Holding on POWELL-WOODS, Deiyantei enforced 10 yards from the CMU20 to the CMU10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 20
OWN 10
-3
68.9%
Daniel Richardson sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:0971% → 77%
Q2 14:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
70.5%
Micah Kelly run for 3 yds to the CMich 4Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
70.5%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the CMich 2Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.9%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:5725% → 23%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
74.7%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
75.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Noah Koenigsknecht for 9 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
74.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 37Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
74.6%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
74.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+58
76.2%
Luke Elzinga punt for 63 yds for a touchback CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Illegal Formation (Jalen McGaughy)Similar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
77.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Kelvin Ateman) to the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1177% → 89%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+18
77.3%
Dequan Finn run for 18 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
78.0%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 33Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+12
77.4%
Dequan Finn run for 12 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+5
77.7%
Dequan Finn run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
50
+17
78.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 17 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+23
78.4%
Micah Kelly run for 23 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
78.4%
Dequan Finn run for no gain to the CMich 10Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
78.8%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 11Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
89.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 11 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3813% → 12%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-15
86.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Personal Foul (Noah Koenigsknecht) to the CMich 15Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+11
87.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 11 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
87.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+6
88.2%
Luke Elzinga punt for 42 yds , Adam Beale returns for 6 yds to the Toled 32 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Illegal Formation (Jalen McGaughy) to the Toled 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 3:3991% → 97%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+38
90.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 38 yds to the CMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
90.8%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-3
90.7%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 18Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+15
90.4%
Dequan Finn run for 15 yds to the CMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
90.4%
KELLY, Micah rush to the right for a loss of 2 yards to the CMU5 (HELDMAN, Michael). PENALTY TOL Holding on SCIURY, Vinny enforced 10 yards from the CMU3 to the CMU13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+7
90.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the CMich 6Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
90.4%
Devin Maddox run for 2 yds to the CMich 4Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13DOWNS
15 plays · 37 yds · 1:183% → 3%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
97.4%
RICHARDSON, Daniel pass to the right incomplete intended for KOENIGSKNECHT, Noah thrown to the CMU49. PENALTY TOL Offsides on CULPEPPER, Judge enforced 5 yards from the CMU28 to the CMU33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 5
OWN 33
0
96.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
97.0%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+15
97.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Noah Koenigsknecht for 15 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.3%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
97.3%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+5
97.3%
RICHARDSON, Daniel pass to the left incomplete intended for CARRIERE, Carlos thrown to the TOL15; QB hurried by CULPEPPER, Judge. PENALTY Before the snap, TOL Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the CMU48 to the TOL47. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+8
96.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kenny Brewer III for 8 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
97.1%
RICHARDSON, Daniel pass to the right complete for 35 yards to SPANN, Caleb caught at the TOL8 and advanced to the TOL4 (FULLER, Andre). PENALTY Before the snap, CMU False Start on SWARTOUT, Brayden enforced 5 yards from the TOL39 to the TOL44. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+9
97.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 9 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
97.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
97.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
96.7%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3298% → 97%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-12
97.5%
Dequan Finn sacked by Thomas Incoom for a loss of 12 yards to the Toled 23Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 22
OWN 23
+16
97.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 16 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
97.4%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
97.3%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 34 yds, downed at the CMich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
97.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16MISSED FG
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:4098% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 11 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
97.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 12 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+27
97.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 27 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
97.9%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
97.9%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
97.9%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
98.3%
Thomas Cluckey 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:482% → 6%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
98.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Cade Conley for 23 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
98.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 8
50
+7
98.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 7 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+4
98.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
98.4%
BAILEY, Myles rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the TOL37 (HINES, Jamal). PENALTY CMU Holding on POWELL-WOODS, Deiyantei enforced 10 yards from the TOL39 to the TOL49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+2
98.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 2 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 18
OPP 47
0
98.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 18
OPP 47
+47
94.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Noah Koenigsknecht for 47 yds for a TD, (Daniel Richardson pass to Noah Koenigsknecht for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4795% → 95%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
95.2%
Devin Maddox run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 20Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-10
95.1%
STUART, Jacquez rush to the left for a gain of 29 yards to the TOL49 (STEPNEY, De'Javion). PENALTY TOL Holding on TORRES, Anthony enforced 10 yards from the TOL20 to the TOL10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 25
OWN 10
+8
95.1%
Micah Kelly run for 8 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
95.0%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
95.2%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jordyn Williams at the CMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19FUMBLE
16 plays · 41 yds · 6:385% → 3%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
94.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
94.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
94.8%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 4
OPP 49
+10
94.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 10 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
94.7%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-2
94.7%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 41Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+7
94.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Kenny Brewer III for 7 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+11
94.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 11 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
94.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Marcus Young for 2 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+1
94.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the Toled 20Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
94.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+16
94.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 16 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
94.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the Toled 3Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
94.0%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Cavon Butler for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 8Similar
Q3 1:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-6
97.1%
Daniel Richardson sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 14Similar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
97.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Kendall Major) to the Toled 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:0798% → 98%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 15
OWN 9
+3
97.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+4
97.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 4 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+15
97.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Personal Foul (Michael Heldman) to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.8%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
97.8%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the Toled 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
97.7%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21TD
3 plays · 29 yds · 7:142% → 8%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
97.9%
Daniel Richardson run for 11 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
89.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 18 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder PAT MISSED)Similar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
92.2%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the Toled 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2694% → 93%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.7%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.6%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
93.4%
Dequan Finn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
93.1%
punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:1311% → 9%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
89.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 6 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+6
88.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 6 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
88.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
89.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
90.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 10
OPP 19
0
91.0%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24FUMBLE
7 plays · 50 yds · 4:1694% → 96%
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
94.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+1
94.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 23Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+11
94.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 11 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+31
94.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for 31 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
95.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q4 10:56
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+2
95.0%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 1
OPP 26
-5
96.3%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 31 Dequan Finn fumbled, recovered by CMich John Wesley WhitesideSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25FUMBLE
1 play · 9 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
93.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 9 yds Joel Wilson fumbled, recovered by Toled Adrian WoliverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:5297% → 99%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
96.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 41Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+8
96.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 8 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 3
OPP 33
-5
96.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, False Start (Kendall Major) to the CMich 38Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
99.2%
Thomas Zsiros 0 Yd Run (Thomas Cluckey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:571% → 1%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 3 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
99.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Finn Hogan for 4 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-5
99.3%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, False Start (Jamezz Kimbrough) to the CMich 22Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-7
99.3%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Adrian Woliver for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 15Similar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 15
OWN 15
-5
99.3%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Delay Of Game (Ronald Kent Jr.) to the CMich 10Similar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
99.4%
Luke Elzinga punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
99.3%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Personal Foul (Kyle Moretti) to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
99.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 3
OPP 38
0
99.3%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the CMich 38Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+12
99.3%
Micah Kelly run for 12 yds to the CMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
99.3%
Micah Kelly run for 7 yds to the CMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:16
Dequan Finn pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 11 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
+10.6
TD · Q4 12:35
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 18 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder PAT MISSED)
-8.8
TD · Q2 13:24
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
+6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com