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BALL

Ball State 23 at Georgia Southern 34

GASO
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
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Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:27 · Anthony Beck II punt for 51 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior+7.7Home team on offense+1.1Garbage-time factor−1.2Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:54: John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 9 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK) — BALL win probability +9.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:10: Kyle Vantrease run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +13.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:19: John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 19 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK) — BALL win probability +18.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:39: Ben VonGunten 25 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +7.8 pts (now 53%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:04: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 7 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +29.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 7:09GASO 4th & 8 at BALL 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:11BALL 4th & 5 at GASO 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:14GASO 4th & 3 at BALL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    71.5%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:15BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:15GASO 4th & 10 at BALL 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:06BALL 4th & 11 at GASO 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:41GASO 4th & 6 at BALL 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    70.3%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 39, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00BALL 4th & 1 at GASO 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%−2.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−8.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:56BALL 4th & 5 at GASO 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−8.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:27GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−2.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:39BALL 4th & 2 at GASO 8, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.8%−3.0
    90% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−19.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:03GASO 4th & 7 at BALL 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:51BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−3.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:30BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 45, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%−3.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:30GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.9%−4.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 2 of 4BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 5:29GASO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:54BALL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:10GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:19BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:04GASO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:40GASO Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASODrive 1FG
16 plays · 81 yds · 7:4676% → 75%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
75.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 12 yds to the GeoSo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
75.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 3 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+13
75.5%
Jalen White run for 13 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
75.5%
Kyle Vantrease run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+10
75.5%
Jalen White run for 10 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
75.5%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-1
75.5%
Jalen White run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 45Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+15
75.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Beau Johnson for 15 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
75.6%
Gerald Green run for 14 yds to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
75.6%
Gerald Green run for 2 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+6
75.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jalen White for 6 yds to the BalSt 8Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+4
75.5%
Jalen White run for 4 yds to the BalSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
75.6%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the BalSt 2Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
75.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 6Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
75.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Amare Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 8Similar
Q1 7:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
74.6%
Alex Raynor 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2FG
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:5825% → 28%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
74.6%
Jayshon Jackson run for 20 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
74.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 4 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
74.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 5 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+19
73.9%
Carson Steele run for 19 yds to the GeoSo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
73.7%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Face mask (7 yards) (Justin Birdsong) to the GeoSo 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
73.7%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
73.7%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the GeoSo 5Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
73.9%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
72.4%
Ben VonGunten 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 46 yds · 3:5173% → 73%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
72.9%
Gerald Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+15
72.8%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass up the middle incomplete intended for BURGESS JR., Derwin thrown to the GS47. PENALTY BSU Pass Interference on RILEY, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the GS36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
73.2%
OJ Arnold run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+11
73.6%
OJ Arnold run for 11 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
73.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 6 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
73.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+7
73.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Amare Jones for 7 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
73.9%
OJ Arnold run for 2 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+5
74.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 5 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
73.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:14
4TH & 3
OPP 29
0
72.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4529% → 28%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
71.1%
Carson Steele run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+4
71.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 4 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
71.5%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+3
71.8%
Lucas Borrow punt for 41 yds , Amare Jones returns for 3 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5FG
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:0072% → 73%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
72.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+44
71.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 44 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
73.6%
OJ Arnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
73.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
73.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
72.5%
Alex Raynor 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:0927% → 27%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
72.9%
PADDOCK, John pass to the right incomplete intended for KOZIOL, Tanner broken up by FREE, Wylan at the BSU43. PENALTY BSU Holding enforced 10 yards from the BSU25 to the BSU15 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+6
73.0%
Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+16
73.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 16 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
72.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 17 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
71.5%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+5
71.5%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Delay Of Game (5 Yards) to the GeoSo 40Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-10
71.3%
STEELE, Carson rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the GS35 (ELLIS, Justin). PENALTY BSU Holding on LEZON, Ryan enforced 10 yards from the GS40 to the BSU50. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 14
50
+3
72.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 3 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
72.3%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:06
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
72.8%
Lucas Borrow punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:3772% → 80%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
72.0%
Jalen White run for 16 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
72.5%
Darius Lewis run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
73.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Amare Jones for 3 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
72.9%
Kyle Vantrease run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
73.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Amare Jones for 22 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
74.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jalen White for 3 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+2
74.0%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+19
73.4%
Gerald Green run for 19 yds to the BalSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
74.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
80.4%
Gerald Green run for 6 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3521% → 34%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.8%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+25
78.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 25 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
77.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 5 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+8
76.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 8 yds to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
76.5%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+12
76.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 12 yds to the GeoSo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
76.2%
Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 14Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+7
76.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 7 yds to the GeoSo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
75.4%
Carson Steele run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
65.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 9 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 1:1371% → 72%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 5 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
71.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+21
70.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 21 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
73.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Amare Jones for 5 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
74.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 4 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
73.9%
Jalen White run for no gain to the BalSt 40Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 1
OPP 40
-5
72.8%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (Brian Miller) to the BalSt 45Similar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
72.4%
Anthony Beck II punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:4127% → 26%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
73.2%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
73.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 10 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
72.9%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
75.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 7 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+2
73.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 2 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+10
74.2%
Lucas Borrow punt for 53 yds , Amare Jones returns for 10 yds to the GeoSo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11FG
15 plays · 56 yds · 6:0430% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
70.2%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+16
70.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 16 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
68.1%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+9
68.1%
Carson Steele run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
68.1%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
68.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 8 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
68.0%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+1
69.3%
John Paddock run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
66.9%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+2
67.1%
John Paddock run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+9
68.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 9 yds to the GeoSo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
66.8%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 12
-3
66.8%
Carson Steele run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+6
68.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 6 yds to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
61.3%
Ben VonGunten 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4666% → 83%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
65.8%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass to the left incomplete intended for JONES, Amare broken up by UZODINMA, Amechi at the GS48. PENALTY BSU Pass Interference on UZODINMA, Amechi enforced 15 yards to the GS40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
67.9%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+53
67.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 53 yds to the BalSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
70.4%
Gerald Green run for 2 yds to the BalSt 4Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
83.3%
Kyle Vantrease run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 3:4623% → 43%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
77.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Carson Steele for 8 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 2
OWN 25
-3
76.7%
Carson Steele run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 22Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+37
78.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 37 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
74.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 4 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
74.0%
Will Jones run for no gain to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+19
74.9%
Carson Steele run for 19 yds to the GeoSo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
74.8%
Will Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+2
75.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 2 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+19
56.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 19 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5265% → 62%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.0%
Jalen White run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
64.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
63.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:27
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
62.2%
Anthony Beck II punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:4840% → 53%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
60.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Nick Presley for 6 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+5
59.1%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
59.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 3 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+9
58.6%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 9 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
56.6%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 6
50
0
56.0%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
50
+24
55.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 24 yds to the GeoSo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
53.0%
Carson Steele run for 10 yds to the GeoSo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
53.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 3 yds to the GeoSo 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
53.0%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the GeoSo 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+5
54.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 5 yds to the GeoSo 8Similar
Q4 12:39
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+25
47.0%
Ben VonGunten 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:3651% → 47%
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
51.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 10 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
52.0%
Kyle Vantrease sacked by Tavion Woodard for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-2
51.8%
Gerald Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+16
49.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 16 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
55.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 3 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
56.7%
Gerald Green run for no gain to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
55.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
47.3%
Anthony Beck II punt for 41 yds, downed at the BalSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1257% → 57%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
42.9%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+2
42.0%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 13Similar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
43.4%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
43.2%
Lucas Borrow punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:4753% → 85%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
52.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
52.4%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass to the right incomplete intended for HOOD, Khaleb thrown to the BSU25. PENALTY BSU Pass Interference on AMOS, Jaquan enforced 15 yards to the BSU28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
55.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
55.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to OJ Arnold for 2 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+12
52.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Amare Jones for 12 yds to the BalSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
55.7%
OJ Arnold run for 7 yds to the BalSt 7Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
85.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 7 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 5:1426% → 21%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.5%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
74.7%
PADDOCK, John pass up the middle incomplete intended for TYLER, Yo'Heinz thrown to the BSU45. PENALTY GS Roughing the Passer on ELLIS, Justin enforced 15 yards from the BSU25 to the BSU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
71.7%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-15
72.6%
BALL ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Yo'Heinz Tyler) to the BalSt 39Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-15
73.1%
BALL ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Yo'Heinz Tyler) to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
72.0%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+6
74.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 6 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
74.1%
Lucas Borrow punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Amare Jones at the GeoSo 14Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
79.0%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 3:5083% → 97%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
82.6%
OJ Arnold run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+9
82.5%
OJ Arnold run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
83.2%
OJ Arnold run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+2
83.1%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+5
82.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 5 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+4
82.2%
Kyle Vantrease run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
84.5%
Jalen White run for 12 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
92.7%
Jalen White run for no gain to the BalSt 49Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
92.7%
Jalen White run for 2 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+47
97.3%
K. Vantrease pass,to A. Jones for 47 yds for a TD, (A. Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21INT
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:393% → 4%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.4%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
97.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
50
+7
96.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 7 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+16
96.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 16 yds to the GeoSo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
96.0%
John Paddock pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
97.3%
Jalen White run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:04
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 7 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)
+29.5
TD · Q3 3:19
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 19 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)
-18.5
TD · Q3 7:10
Kyle Vantrease run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)
+13
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com