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BUF

Buffalo 50 at Eastern Michigan 31

EMU
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:37 · Samson Evans run for 4 yds to the Buff 3 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.0+26.00−26.0−52.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Home team on offense−7.3Pregame prior+8.1Score differential−4.4Garbage-time factor−2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:30: Mike Washington run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +9.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:28: Austin Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jesus Gomez KICK) — EMU win probability +14.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 10:38: Darius Boone Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick) — EMU win probability +12.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:15: Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 65 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +20.3 pts (now 58%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 2:08: Alex McNulty 37 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +9.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:44BUF 4th & 1 at EMU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:44BUF 4th & 3 at EMU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    32.4%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00BUF 4th & 1 at EMU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%−0.8
    86% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−3.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:18EMU 4th & 4 at BUF 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.7%−0.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−3.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:37EMU 4th & 1 at BUF 7, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%−2.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−7.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:40EMU 4th & 5 at EMU 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:08BUF 4th & 6 at EMU 18, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−11.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:36EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 33, down 9
    Numbers favored punt by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.8%−1.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:32BUF 4th & 9 at EMU 9, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−11.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:48EMU 4th & 2 at EMU 39, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.4%−1.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:28EMU 4th & 20 at EMU 41, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:35BUF 4th & 2 at EMU 44, up 19
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.4%−0.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:47BUF 4th & 5 at EMU 27, up 19
    Close callWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    97.3%−1.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:11BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:57EMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:30BUF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:28EMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:38EMU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:15BUF Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:39BUF Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3235% → 35%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
65.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Trevor Borland for 9 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
65.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+59
65.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 59 yds to the EMich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.6%
Cole Snyder run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 7:2235% → 37%
Q1 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
65.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
65.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
65.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 13 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+3
64.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
64.9%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the EMich 35Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+5
65.1%
Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the EMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
64.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for 5 yds to the EMich 25Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+2
64.8%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the EMich 23Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
64.9%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+5
65.0%
Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the EMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
64.8%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the EMich 13Similar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
64.9%
PENALTY BUFF False Start (Wright,Isaiah) 5 yards from BUFF45 to BUFF40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+14
65.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Clevester Hines for 14 yds to the EMich 46Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+2
64.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the EMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
64.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
63.1%
C. Snyder pass,to Q. Williams for 13 yds for a TD, (A. McNulty PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5265% → 66%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
64.8%
Samson Evans run for 2 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
64.9%
Jaylon Jackson run for 3 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
64.7%
Austin Smith pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 6 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
65.2%
Samson Evans run for 6 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+2
65.6%
Samson Evans run for 2 yds to the EMich 44Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+17
65.5%
Samson Evans run for 17 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+29
65.8%
Austin Smith run for 29 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
66.3%
Austin Smith pass complete to Tanner Knue for 10 yds for a TD, (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:4236% → 40%
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
63.4%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Al-Jay HendersonSimilar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
64.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Clevester Hines for 10 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
62.9%
Cole Snyder run for 8 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+3
61.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+30
61.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 30 yds to the EMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
60.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 5 yds to the EMich 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+3
60.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the EMich 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+1
61.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the EMich 12Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+5
62.1%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the EMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
60.7%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the EMich 2Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
59.6%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:3365% → 62%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
65.4%
Austin Smith pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 15 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
66.7%
Samson Evans run for 9 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+7
67.0%
Austin Smith pass complete to Gunnar Oakes for 7 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
67.5%
Austin Smith run for 13 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
66.7%
Austin Smith pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 5 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+2
66.7%
Samson Evans run for 2 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+1
65.9%
Samson Evans run for 1 yd to the Buff 16Similar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+35
61.5%
Jesus Gomez 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4842% → 54%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 6 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
57.8%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
58.3%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
57.8%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the EMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
56.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+4
56.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 4 yds to the EMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
56.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 7 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+10
55.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 10 yds to the EMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
55.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the EMich 20Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+16
55.8%
Cole Snyder run for 16 yds to the EMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
46.3%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:0246% → 59%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+67
45.9%
Austin Smith pass complete to Tanner Knue for 67 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
49.1%
Jaylon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+1
49.1%
Jaylon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Buff 11Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+4
47.8%
Austin Smith pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 4 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q2 1:37
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+4
44.5%
Samson Evans run for 4 yds to the Buff 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
47.9%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
47.7%
Samson Evans run for no gain to the Buff 1Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.9%
Austin Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8FG
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:1350% → 49%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
50.5%
PENALTY BUFF False Start 5 yards from EMU18 to EMU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 15
OPP 23
0
51.0%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 15
OPP 23
0
51.4%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 23
+41
51.0%
Alex McNulty 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:2251% → 68%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
51.2%
Samson Evans run for 6 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+29
52.9%
Austin Smith pass complete to Tanner Knue for 29 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
55.5%
Samson Evans run for 1 yd to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+4
55.5%
Austin Smith run for 4 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+5
54.0%
Austin Smith run for 5 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
55.5%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Darius LassiterSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+18
55.5%
Austin Smith run for 18 yds to the Buff 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
55.5%
Samson Evans run for 2 yds to the Buff 8Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
55.5%
Samson Evans run for 5 yds to the Buff 3Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
68.1%
Darius Boone Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2336% → 58%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Snyder,Cole pass complete short left to Williams,Quian for 7 yards to the BUFF32 (Shine,Kempton) PENALTY EMU Offside (Evans,Carter) 5 yards from BUFF25 to BUFF30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+6
62.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 6 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
62.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 1 yd to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+65
42.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 65 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3545% → 44%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
45.3%
Austin Smith pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 5 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
47.0%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Darius LassiterSimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
44.8%
Austin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
43.7%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 62 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12FG
19 plays · 81 yds · 6:3257% → 72%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
42.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 7 yds to the Buff 8Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+4
43.2%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
42.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 8 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+1
40.9%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the Buff 21Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+4
41.8%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
41.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 6 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
39.9%
Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
39.9%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
40.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 10 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
38.6%
Mike Washington run for 10 yds to the EMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
37.7%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-2
37.8%
Cole Snyder sacked by T.J. Peavy for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 45Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+15
39.4%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Targeting (Joe Sparacio) to the EMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
36.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the EMich 18Similar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
36.8%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Ron Cook Jr.Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
37.5%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+37
28.1%
Alex McNulty 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3223% → 20%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
23.2%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Tanner KnueSimilar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
22.9%
Samson Evans run for 1 yd to the EMich 28Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+5
22.2%
Austin Smith run for 5 yds to the EMich 33Similar
Q3 0:36
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
20.4%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Darius LassiterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:0477% → 84%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+25
23.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 17 yds to the EMich 16 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jordan Crawford) to the EMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
22.6%
PENALTY BUFF False Start (Bessent,Desmond) 5 yards from EMU08 to EMU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+3
22.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the EMich 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
22.6%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the EMich 9Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
23.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q4 13:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+28
16.4%
Alex McNulty 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4415% → 13%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
15.0%
Austin Smith pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 5 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
15.4%
Austin Smith run for no gain to the EMich 36Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+3
14.8%
Austin Smith run for 3 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+1
12.5%
Austin Smith run for 1 yd to the EMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16TD
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:0991% → 98%
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
8.9%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+4
8.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the EMich 32Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+3
8.3%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the EMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
7.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the EMich 32Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+27
7.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 27 yds to the EMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
7.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the EMich 2Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
2.2%
Cole Snyder run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
2.1%
PENALTY EMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Price,Peyton) 15 yards from BUFF35 to BUFF50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:112% → 1%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
2.0%
Austin Smith pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 26 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
2.2%
PENALTY EMU False Start (Johnson,Marcellus) 5 yards from BUFF49 to EMU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 15
OWN 46
0
2.0%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Samson EvansSimilar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 15
OWN 46
-7
2.0%
Austin Smith sacked by James Hook for a loss of 7 yards to the EMich 39Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 22
OWN 39
+2
2.0%
Austin Smith run for 2 yds to the EMich 41Similar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 20
OWN 41
+11
1.3%
Austin Smith pass complete to Samson Evans for 11 yds to the Buff 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5399% → 99%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
1.3%
Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the EMich 46Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+1
1.3%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the EMich 45Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+1
1.3%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the EMich 44Similar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
1.0%
Anthony Venneri punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.6%
Austin Smith pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
9 plays · 3 yds · 4:2799% → 100%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
0.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+2
0.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the EMich 26Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+1
1.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the EMich 27Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+6
0.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 6 yds to the EMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
0.6%
Cole Snyder run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 24Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 13
OPP 24
-2
0.7%
Cole Snyder run for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 26Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 26
-3
0.4%
Cole Snyder run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:15
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 65 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
-20.3
TD · Q2 0:28
Austin Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jesus Gomez KICK)
+14.1
TD · Q3 10:38
Darius Boone Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)
+12.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com