2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadLIU aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreLIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:43 · J.B. Awolowo 34 Yd Punt Return (Andrew Glass Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:52: Devontez Walker 50 Yd pass from Collin Schlee (Andrew Glass Kick) — KENT win probability +25.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 9:40: Michael Coney 32 Yd Field Goal — LIU win probability +1.8 pts (now 4%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q2 7:56: Bryan Bradford 14 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick) — KENT win probability +5.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:22: Gavin Garcia 12 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick) — KENT win probability +1.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:43: J.B. Awolowo 34 Yd Punt Return (Andrew Glass Kick) — LIU win probability +0.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: LIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1LIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 6:35LIU 4th & 15 at KENT 17, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.115% to convertField goalTheir call2.2%80% to makePunt1.8%−0.4average punt
- Q2 9:40LIU 4th & 5 at KENT 15, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.6%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call3.6%83% to makePunt2.8%−0.8average punt
- Q2 0:00LIU 4th & 1 at KENT 46, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.5%70% to convertField goal7.4%−1.123% to makePunt7.9%−0.6average punt
- Q2 5:34LIU 4th & 5 at LIU 30, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snapGo for it3.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.4%average punt
- Q2 1:43LIU 4th & 14 at LIU 37, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q2 0:33LIU 4th & 3 at LIU 32, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q3 8:17LIU 4th & 15 at LIU 44, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 4:32LIU 4th & 4 at LIU 31, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 10:29LIU 4th & 8 at KENT 39, down 46Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%34% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 8:12KENT 4th & 12 at KENT 18, up 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 6:03LIU 4th & 10 at KENT 39, down 52Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%30% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.136% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6LIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 4:52KENT Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:49LIU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.8%97% to makeGo for two2.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:57KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:56KENT Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:22KENT Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:17KENT Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:55KENT Touchdown, up 45 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLIUDrive 1MISSED FG28 plays · 58 yds · 6:352% → 4%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.6%
Derek Green pass complete to Michael Love for 9 yds to the LongIs 34Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+12
96.4%
Derek Green pass complete to Owen Glascoe for 12 yds to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+8
96.4%
Derek Green pass complete to Davon Wells for 8 yds to the KntSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
96.3%
Derek Green run for a loss of 10 yards to the KntSt 36 Derek Green fumbled, recovered by LongIs Derek GreenSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 20
OPP 36
+13
96.4%
Derek Green pass complete to Owen Glascoe for 13 yds to the KntSt 23Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+11
96.4%
Derek Green pass complete to Owen Glascoe for 11 yds to the KntSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2TD6 plays · 80 yds · 4:5298% → 98%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+8
97.5%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 3TD4 plays · 75 yds · 2:493% → 3%
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
96.6%
Derek Green pass complete to Michael Love for 9 yds to the LongIs 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4TD10 plays · 55 yds · 0:0397% → 97%
LIUDrive 5FG10 plays · 50 yds · 9:404% → 8%
KENTDrive 6TD7 plays · 75 yds · 7:5697% → 97%
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+39
96.2%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Luke Floriea for 39 yds to the KENTST 32 for a 1ST down LONG ISLAND Penalty, off-side (Jayson Emery) to the LongIs 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 5:343% → 4%
KENTDrive 8TD6 plays · 89 yds · 4:0797% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 9TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:591% → 1%
Q2 1:59
3RD & 14
OWN 37
0
98.7%
Derek Green pass incomplete to Tosin Oyekanmi, broken up by D.J. Miller Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:362% → 1%
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.0%
Derek Green pass complete to Owen Glascoe for 5 yds to the LongIs 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11END OF HALF3 plays · -12 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
KENTDrive 12TD10 plays · 75 yds · 12:17100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
99.9%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Dante Cephas for 21 yds to the KntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Devontez Walker, broken up by Javal StatonSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
99.9%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for 14 yds to the LongIs 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 8:170% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.9%
Jonathan DeBique run for a loss of 3 yards to the LongIs 22 Jonathan DeBique fumbled, recovered by LongIs Derek GreenSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+28
99.9%
Derek Green pass complete to Davon Wells for 13 yds to the LongIs 34 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, personal foul (Montre Miller) to the LongIs 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14TD8 plays · 85 yds · 6:04100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
99.9%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Raymond James for 13 yds to the KntSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
99.9%
LONG ISLAND Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Orin Ormsby) to the LongIs 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+19
99.9%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Dante Cephas for 19 yds to the LongIs 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 4:320% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16TD9 plays · 49 yds · 0:05100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
99.9%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Raymond James KENT ST Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the LongIs 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 28
+17
99.9%
Gavin Garcia run for 5 yds to the LongIs 23 for a 1ST down LONG ISLAND Penalty, face mask (12 yards) (Michael Thompson) to the LongIs 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 36 yds · 10:290% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 8:12100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-4
100.0%
Devin Kargman run for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 17 Devin Kargman fumbled, recovered by KntSt Daniel BanguraSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 19DOWNS7 plays · 29 yds · 6:030% → 0%
Q4 6:03
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
100.0%
Luca Stanzani pass incomplete to Davon Wells, broken up by Naijee JonesSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+13
100.0%
Luca Stanzani pass complete to Davon Wells for 13 yds to the KntSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
100.0%
Luca Stanzani pass complete to Michael Love for 10 yds to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
100.0%
Luca Stanzani pass incomplete to Davon Wells, broken up by Sekou DiabySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20TD6 plays · 61 yds · 2:16100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIUDrive 21Uncategorized4 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 4:52
Devontez Walker 50 Yd pass from Collin Schlee (Andrew Glass Kick)
+25.7
TD · Q2 7:56
Bryan Bradford 14 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)
+5.5
FG · Q2 9:40
Michael Coney 32 Yd Field Goal
-1.8