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BUF

Buffalo 26 at Coastal Carolina 38

CCU
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Brooks Stadium (SC)
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Win probability · CCU
modelCCU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playCCU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:42 · Jackson Baltar punt for 36 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Pregame prior+19.6Home team on offense+3.8Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:48: C. Beasley run for 10 yds for a TD, (K. Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +11.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:36: C. Snyder pass,to J. Marshall for 15 yds for a TD, (A. McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +13.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:15: Jahmar Brown 21 Yd Fumble Return (Kade Hensley Kick) — CCU win probability +23.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:05: G. McCall pass,to T. Mobley for 4 yds for a TD, (K. Hensley KICK) — CCU win probability +14.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:36: C. Snyder pass,to Q. Williams for 10 yds for a TD, (A. McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +20.3 pts (now 29%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BUF made the numbers' call on 13 of 15
  1. Q1 11:41BUF 4th & 9 at CCU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:33CCU 4th & 1 at BUF 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.8%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:25BUF 4th & 12 at CCU 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    21.5%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:05BUF 4th & 12 at CCU 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    21.7%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:05CCU 4th & 8 at CCU 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:03CCU 4th & 8 at CCU 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:17BUF 4th & 15 at CCU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:47BUF 4th & 18 at CCU 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:42BUF 4th & 19 at BUF 19, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−2.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:29BUF 4th & 19 at BUF 19, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.2%−2.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:10CCU 4th & 9 at BUF 41, up 5
    Close callPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    75.3%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 14:53BUF 4th & 18 at BUF 43, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−4.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:03BUF 4th & 18 at BUF 43, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−5.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:09CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 33, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.6%−2.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:04CCU 4th & 1 at CCU 33, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.6%−2.5
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:04BUF 4th & 1 at CCU 11, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.7%−4.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−18.0
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:13BUF 4th & 7 at CCU 7, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    26.2%−16.2
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:14CCU 4th & 10 at BUF 27, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−2.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    34.8%−13.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:15BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 34, up 2
    Numbers favored punt by 3.8 ptsWent for it · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.8%−3.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:58BUF 4th & 1 at CCU 15, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%−1.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−6.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:36BUF 4th & 8 at CCU 10, down 12
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−3.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:55BUF 4th & 12 at BUF 32, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CCU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 7:33CCU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:48CCU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:36BUF Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:15CCU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:05CCU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:36BUF Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.1%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:03CCU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CCUDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:3281% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
81.2%
Reese White run for 10 yds to the CCaro 45 Reese White fumbled, recovered by Buff James PattersonSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
81.1%
Reese White run for 10 yds to the CCaro 45 Reese White fumbled, recovered by Buff James PattersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:4719% → 20%
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
81.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 16 yds to the CCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
81.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the CCaro 23Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+4
81.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 4 yds to the CCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
81.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the CCaro 17Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+1
81.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the CCaro 18Similar
Q1 14:28
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
81.1%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+36
80.1%
Alex McNulty 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:2680% → 80%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
80.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 14 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
80.2%
Jared Brown run for 17 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
80.4%
Max Balthazar run for 1 yd to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+5
80.4%
De'Andre Coleman run for 5 yds to the Buff 38 De'Andre Coleman fumbled, recovered by Buff Ibrahim KanteSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+5
80.0%
De'Andre Coleman run for 5 yds to the Buff 38 De'Andre Coleman fumbled, recovered by Buff Ibrahim KanteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:0021% → 21%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
79.5%
Mike Washington run for 8 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+4
79.4%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
50
-7
79.0%
Cole Snyder sacked by Lance Boykin for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 43 Cole Snyder fumbled, recovered by CCaro Kennedy Roberts , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 43 yds · 1:4280% → 80%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
79.7%
Jared Brown run for 3 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+1
79.5%
Max Balthazar run for 1 yd to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+11
79.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Reese White for 11 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+34
80.3%
G. McCall pass,to J. Jenkins for 34 yds for a TD, (K. Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:2020% → 20%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
79.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 11 yds to the CCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
79.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the CCaro 46Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 12
OPP 46
0
79.9%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
80.1%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
80.4%
Jackson Baltar punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 6:05
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
80.3%
Jackson Baltar punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0280% → 79%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
79.7%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
79.7%
Grayson McCall run for 2 yds to the CCaro 22Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
79.5%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:05
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
79.3%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Quian Williams at the Buff 33Similar
Q1 5:03
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
79.1%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Quian Williams at the Buff 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8FG
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:4620% → 22%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
79.8%
Jamari Gassett run for 1 yd to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
80.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+12
80.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 12 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
79.5%
Ron Cook Jr. pass complete to Trevor Borland for 14 yds to the CCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
79.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 18 yds to the CCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
79.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the CCaro 30Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 16
OPP 30
+3
79.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 3 yds to the CCaro 27Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 13
OPP 27
-2
79.6%
Cole Snyder sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 2 yards to the CCaro 29Similar
Q1 1:17
4TH & 15
OPP 29
+47
78.3%
Alex McNulty 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · 67 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+67
78.3%
Reese White run for 67 yds to the Buff 8 Reese White fumbled, recovered by Buff Jahmin MuseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10FG
16 plays · 68 yds · 7:1422% → 27%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
78.3%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the Buff 9Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+17
78.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 17 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+17
78.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 17 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
77.7%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Jamari GassettSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
77.7%
Mike Washington run for 7 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+7
77.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 7 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
76.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 2 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
76.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for 9 yds to the CCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
76.5%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the CCaro 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+15
76.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 15 yds to the CCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
76.1%
Cole Snyder run for 3 yds to the CCaro 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+20
76.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 20 yds to the CCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
76.1%
Cole Snyder sacked by Emmanuel Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the CCaro 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 26
0
76.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Robbie MangasSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 26
+2
77.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 2 yds to the CCaro 24Similar
Q2 8:47
4TH & 18
OPP 24
+42
73.2%
Alex McNulty 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 11FUMBLE
10 plays · 42 yds · 2:3374% → 75%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
74.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 13 yds to the CCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
74.7%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jacob JenkinsSimilar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
74.5%
CJ Beasley run for 5 yds to the CCaro 43Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+6
74.9%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 6 yds to the CCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
75.6%
Jared Brown run for 2 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
75.8%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+20
75.2%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 20 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
76.7%
Ty Lyles run for 4 yds to the Buff 33 Ty Lyles fumbled, recovered by Buff Caleb OffordSimilar
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
75.3%
Ty Lyles run for 4 yds to the Buff 33 Ty Lyles fumbled, recovered by Buff Caleb OffordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2130% → 30%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
70.1%
Cole Snyder pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
69.9%
Cole Snyder pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 13TD
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 5:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
81.0%
C. Beasley run for 10 yds for a TD, (K. Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 2:1321% → 20%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
79.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-7
79.2%
Cole Snyder sacked by Jerrod Clark for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 21Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 17
OWN 21
+2
79.9%
Cole Snyder run for 2 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 19
OWN 19
0
80.3%
Jackson Baltar punt for 36 ydsSimilar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 19
OWN 19
0
80.2%
Jackson Baltar punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:1980% → 79%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
80.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 13 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
80.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Beasley,CJ rush left for 9 yards gain to the BUF33 (Patterson,James; Bambara,Solomanie) PENALTY CCU Holding (Wilson,Donnell) 10 yards from BUF42 to CCU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+10
79.4%
Grayson McCall run for 10 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+1
80.3%
Grayson McCall run for 1 yd to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
80.0%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Jared BrownSimilar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
78.5%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:3420% → 38%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
80.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 15 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
79.7%
No Huddle Snyder,Cole pass complete short right to Washington,Mike for 0 yards to the BUF35 (Bruce,Shane; Boykin,Lance) PENALTY CCU Targeting (Bruce,Shane) 15 yards from BUF35 to BUF50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
50
+13
77.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 13 yds to the CCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
77.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 4 yds to the CCaro 33Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+15
76.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 15 yds to the CCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
76.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the CCaro 15Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
62.2%
C. Snyder pass,to J. Marshall for 15 yds for a TD, (A. McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 17END OF HALF
8 plays · 57 yds · 1:1270% → 69%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
69.9%
PENALTY CCU False Start (Mobley,Tyson) 5 yards from CCU39 to CCU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+16
68.7%
CJ Beasley run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Jared Brown for 5 yds to the CCaro 30Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
69.0%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Beasley for 9 yds to the CCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+32
68.8%
Jarrett Guest pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 32 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
14 plays · 14 yds · 4:5035% → 35%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
65.2%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+2
64.3%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+5
64.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 5 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
63.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
63.3%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+7
64.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 7 yds to the CCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
62.9%
BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 43Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 18
OWN 43
+3
64.8%
Cole Snyder run for 3 yds to the Buff 40 Cole Snyder fumbled, recovered by Buff Cole SnyderSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 21
OWN 40
0
65.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 21
OWN 40
+8
65.8%
Cole Snyder run for 8 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 13
OWN 48
-5
67.0%
PENALTY BUF False Start (Brown,Solomon) 5 yards from BUF48 to BUF43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 18
OWN 43
+7
67.1%
Jackson Baltar punt for 40 yds , Tyson Mobley returns for 7 yds to the CCaro 24Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 18
OWN 43
+7
64.9%
Jackson Baltar punt for 40 yds , Tyson Mobley returns for 7 yds to the CCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:5964% → 61%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
64.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun McCall,Grayson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CCU27 (Patterson,James; Fuqua,Marcus) PENALTY CCU Holding (Moise,Willie) 10 yards from CCU24 to CCU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 20
OWN 14
+14
63.9%
CJ Beasley run for 14 yds to the CCaro 28Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
64.6%
Max Balthazar run for no gain to the CCaro 28Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
63.2%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:09
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+5
60.7%
Crenshaw,Evan punt 37 yards to the BUF35, out of bounds at BUF35 PENALTY BUF Running Into The Kicker (Brown,Solomon) 5 yards from CCU28 to CCU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:09
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+1
61.3%
CJ Beasley run for 1 yd to the CCaro 32Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+1
61.3%
CJ Beasley run for 1 yd to the CCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20FG
10 plays · 25 yds · 3:5145% → 54%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
55.4%
Mike Washington run for 8 yds to the CCaro 24Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+4
55.0%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the CCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
54.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the CCaro 15Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+3
54.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the CCaro 12Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+1
56.5%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the CCaro 11Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+1
58.5%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the CCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
54.9%
Cole Snyder run for 1 yd to the CCaro 9Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
54.9%
Cole Snyder run for 2 yds to the CCaro 7Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
56.5%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+26
45.9%
Alex McNulty 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 21FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:5949% → 59%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
48.8%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 17 yds to the CCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
52.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Sam Pinckney for 20 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
54.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Tyler Roberts for 11 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
55.8%
CJ Beasley run for no gain to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
55.6%
Max Balthazar run for no gain to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 4:13
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
53.2%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Sam PinckneySimilar
Q3 1:14
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+44
58.9%
Kade Hensley 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22FUMBLE RETURN TD
10 plays · -4 yds · 1:5448% → 26%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
52.6%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+17
51.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 17 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Marlyn Johnson) to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
51.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 17 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Marlyn Johnson) to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
51.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 17 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Marlyn Johnson) to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
49.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 2 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
49.8%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Mike WashingtonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
51.5%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+21
74.5%
Jahmar Brown 21 Yd Fumble Return (Kade Hensley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0727% → 27%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
72.6%
Cole Snyder pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
72.6%
Cole Snyder pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:5780% → 94%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
50
+31
79.6%
CJ Beasley run for 31 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
80.1%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Beasley for 6 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+5
80.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Beasley,CJ rush right for 3 yards loss to the BUF16 (Williams,Daymond) PENALTY BUF Offside (Bazile,C.J.) 5 yards from BUF13 to BUF08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
80.1%
PENALTY BUF Offside (Williams,Daymond) 4 yards from BUF08 to BUF04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.1%
G. McCall pass,to T. Mobley for 4 yds for a TD, (K. Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25TD
19 plays · 71 yds · 6:2211% → 29%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
89.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 14
OWN 25
0
90.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Al-Jay HendersonSimilar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 14
OWN 25
+16
90.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 16 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
88.6%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
89.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for no gain to the Buff 41Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+14
89.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 14 yds to the CCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
88.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 5 yds to the CCaro 40Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+4
87.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the CCaro 36Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+12
87.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 12 yds to the CCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
86.9%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+7
87.4%
Mike Washington run for 7 yds to the CCaro 17Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+2
87.8%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the CCaro 15Similar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+3
88.2%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the CCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
86.9%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
86.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 6 yds to the CCaro 6Similar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 4
OPP 6
-4
91.6%
Cole Snyder sacked by Braylon Ryan for a loss of 4 yards to the CCaro 10Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+10
71.3%
C. Snyder pass,to Q. Williams for 10 yds for a TD, (A. McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 26TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3386% → 98%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.4%
Grayson McCall pass complete to Logan Mauldin for 9 yds to the CCaro 34Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+14
87.3%
CJ Beasley run for 14 yds to the CCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
88.6%
CJ Beasley run for no gain to the CCaro 48Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-10
88.2%
COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CCaro 41Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 17
OWN 41
0
87.4%
Grayson McCall pass incomplete to Tyson MobleySimilar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 17
OWN 41
+59
97.7%
Grayson McCall pass complete to CJ Beasley for 59 yds for a TD, (Kade Hensley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:024% → 3%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
96.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 3 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+1
96.9%
Cole Snyder run for 1 yd to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 12
OWN 32
0
97.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
97.2%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CCUDrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:5598% → 99%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
98.3%
Nate Hope II run for 11 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
98.3%
Nate Hope II run for 9 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+5
98.5%
Nate Hope II run for 5 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
98.6%
Grayson McCall run for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:15
Jahmar Brown 21 Yd Fumble Return (Kade Hensley Kick)
+23
TD · Q4 5:36
C. Snyder pass,to Q. Williams for 10 yds for a TD, (A. McNulty KICK)
-20.3
TD · Q4 12:05
G. McCall pass,to T. Mobley for 4 yds for a TD, (K. Hensley KICK)
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com