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MUR

Murray State 0 at Ball State 31

BALL
2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadMUR aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreMUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Rico Barfield run for no gain to the MurrS 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q1 0:00: Cortezz Jones run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line — MUR win probability +1.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: MUR has the ball).
  2. PUNT · Q2 11:38: Lucas Borrow punt for 45 yds for a touchback — MUR win probability +0.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:59: John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 18 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK) — BALL win probability +2.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:57: John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 14 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK) — BALL win probability +3.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:13: Carson Steele run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK) — BALL win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MUR made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 12:50MUR 4th & 1 at MUR 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:50MUR 4th & 1 at MUR 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:05MUR 4th & 4 at MUR 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:05MUR 4th & 4 at MUR 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:24BALL 4th & 5 at MUR 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    90.1%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    90.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 8:24BALL 4th & 5 at MUR 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    90.1%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    90.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 6:27MUR 4th & 2 at MUR 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q1 5:38BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  9. Q1 4:07BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 14:05MUR 4th & 3 at BALL 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 10:10MUR 4th & 4 at MUR 26, down 7
    Close callPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:50MUR 4th & 8 at MUR 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  13. Q2 5:03BALL 4th & 3 at MUR 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    90.1%−0.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q2 2:33MUR 4th & 15 at BALL 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  15. Q2 1:04BALL 4th & 6 at MUR 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    91.1%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 9:25MUR 4th & 6 at MUR 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  17. Q3 9:25MUR 4th & 6 at MUR 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  18. Q3 5:21BALL 4th & 3 at MUR 10, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.4%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−1.5
    average punt
  19. Q3 4:05MUR 4th & 17 at MUR 18, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:27MUR 4th & 6 at BALL 12, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:52BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 32, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:40BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:59BALL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:57BALL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:13BALL Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MURDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:067% → 8%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
92.9%
Cortezz Jones run for 2 yds to the MurrS 23Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+11
92.9%
LaMartez Brooks pass complete to Dameon Gomes for 11 yds to the MurrS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
92.9%
Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to Quindarrius MayesSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
92.9%
LaMartez Brooks run for 3 yds to the MurrS 37Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+6
92.9%
Isaac McNamee pass complete to Dameon Gomes for 6 yds to the MurrS 43Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
92.3%
Cortezz Jones run for no gain to the MurrS 43Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
92.3%
Cortezz Jones run for no gain to the MurrS 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:1092% → 93%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
92.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for no gain to the MurrS 43Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
92.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 8 yds to the MurrS 35Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+22
92.4%
Will Jones run for 22 yds to the MurrS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
92.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 13 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:298% → 8%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
92.4%
Jawaun Northington run for 8 yds to the MurrS 24Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+2
92.4%
LaMartez Brooks run for 2 yds to the MurrS 22Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 4
OWN 22
0
92.4%
Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to DeQuan DallasSimilar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 4
OWN 22
+14
92.2%
Lewis Halton punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 45 , Jayshon Jackson returns for 14 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 4
OWN 22
+14
92.2%
Lewis Halton punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 45 , Jayshon Jackson returns for 14 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4192% → 92%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
92.3%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
92.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 15 yds to the MurrS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
92.4%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-RahmanSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
92.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Dean Tate for 4 yds to the MurrS 36Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+1
92.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Will Jones for 1 yd to the MurrS 35Similar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
92.0%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-RahmanSimilar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
92.0%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Amir Abdur-RahmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:578% → 8%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
91.9%
Jawaun Northington run for no gain to the MurrS 35Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
91.9%
Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the MurrS 34Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+9
92.0%
Isaac McNamee pass complete to Taylor Shields for 9 yds to the MurrS 43Similar
Q1 6:27
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
91.6%
Lewis Halton punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4992% → 91%
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.7%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the BalSt 20Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
91.6%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Carson SteeleSimilar
Q1 6:27
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
91.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q1 5:38
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
91.3%
Lucas Borrow punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MurrS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
91.3%
Isaac McNamee pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2292% → 91%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
91.8%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the BalSt 47Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
91.7%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
91.6%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
91.2%
Lucas Borrow punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 5:029% → 10%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
91.2%
Jawaun Northington run for 9 yds to the MurrS 28Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+1
91.0%
LaMartez Brooks run for 1 yd to the MurrS 27Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+9
91.2%
DeQuan Dallas run for 9 yds to the MurrS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
91.1%
Jawaun Northington run for 4 yds to the MurrS 40Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
90.9%
Cortezz Jones run for no gain to the MurrS 40Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+8
91.1%
Isaac McNamee pass complete to Jake Saathoff for 8 yds to the MurrS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
89.8%
Cortezz Jones run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
50
+5
89.7%
Jawaun Northington run for 5 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
89.8%
Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to Jake SaathoffSimilar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+11
89.8%
Lewis Halton punt blocked by Nic Jones blocked by Nic JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:2790% → 90%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
90.4%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+4
90.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 4 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+6
90.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 6 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
90.7%
Carson Steele run for 11 yds to the MurrS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
90.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Vaughn Pemberton for 4 yds to the MurrS 40Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
90.8%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-5
90.6%
PENALTY Ball False Start (Schmidt,Seth) 5 yards from Murray40 to Murray45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
89.9%
Lucas Borrow punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2810% → 10%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
89.6%
LaMartez Brooks run for 5 yds to the MurrS 25Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
89.4%
Cortezz Jones run for 1 yd to the MurrS 26Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
89.7%
Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to DeQuan DallasSimilar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+11
89.7%
Lewis Halton punt for 40 yds , Jayshon Jackson returns for 11 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:1190% → 93%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
90.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Carson Steele for 3 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
90.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+15
89.8%
MURRAY ST Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Bolden,Jaylon) 15 yards from Murray48 to Murray33, 1ST DOWN. (Nick Walker) to the MurrS 33Similar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
90.3%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the MurrS 31Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+7
90.3%
Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the MurrS 24Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+6
90.0%
Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the MurrS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
90.3%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
92.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 18 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:048% → 8%
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
92.2%
BALL ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MurrS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
91.9%
Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to DeQuan DallasSimilar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
92.0%
Jawaun Northington run for 2 yds to the MurrS 33Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
92.4%
Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to Jake SaathoffSimilar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
92.5%
Lewis Halton punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:4793% → 93%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+26
92.8%
Jayshon Jackson run for 26 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
93.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 13 yds to the MurrS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
93.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Dean TateSimilar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
93.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+7
92.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 7 yds to the MurrS 38Similar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
92.6%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:308% → 7%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
92.2%
Jawaun Northington run for 3 yds to the MurrS 41Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-10
92.1%
MURRAY ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MurrS 36Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 12
OWN 36
+20
92.4%
Jawaun Northington run for 20 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
91.8%
PENALTY Murray False Start (Northington,Jawaun) 5 yards from Ball44 to Ball49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 15
OPP 49
0
92.3%
Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to DeQuan DallasSimilar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 15
OPP 49
0
92.3%
Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to Jake SaathoffSimilar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 15
OPP 49
0
92.5%
Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to DeQuan DallasSimilar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
92.6%
Lewis Halton punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 1:2993% → 93%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
93.0%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
93.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+10
92.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 10 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
93.3%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
93.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Ryan Lezon for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
50
+4
93.4%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the MurrS 46Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
93.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
92.8%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
92.5%
Lucas Borrow punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dameon Gomes at the MurrS 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 17END OF HALF
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:048% → 7%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
92.2%
Jawaun Northington run for no gain to the MurrS 10Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+11
92.5%
Jawaun Northington run for 11 yds to the MurrS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
92.7%
Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the MurrS 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0393% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
92.9%
Carson Steele run for 22 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
93.3%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+4
93.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 4 yds to the MurrS 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+4
93.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 4 yds to the MurrS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
93.3%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the MurrS 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+16
93.3%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 16 yds to the MurrS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
93.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 12 yds to the MurrS 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
94.0%
Jackson,Jayshon rush left for 2 yards gain to the Murray07 (Powell,Lawaun) PENALTY Ball Holding (Boggs,Joseph) 10 yards from Murray09 to Murray19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+5
94.0%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the MurrS 14Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
97.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 14 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:323% → 2%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Isaac McNamee pass complete to LaMartez Brooks for no gain to the MurrS 25Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.3%
Dameon Gomes run for 4 yds to the MurrS 29Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
97.2%
Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to DeQuan DallasSimilar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
97.6%
Lewis Halton punt for 44 yds , Jayshon Jackson returns for no gain to the BalSt 27Similar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
97.6%
Lewis Halton punt for 44 yds , Jayshon Jackson returns for no gain to the BalSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20FG
10 plays · 76 yds · 4:0498% → 98%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
97.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 5 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+7
97.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 7 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
97.9%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+10
97.9%
Carson Steele run for 10 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
97.9%
Carson Steele run for 23 yds to the MurrS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
98.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 19 yds to the MurrS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
98.0%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 2 yds to the MurrS 15Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+5
98.0%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 5 yds to the MurrS 10Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
98.0%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the MurrS 10Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
98.4%
Ben VonGunten 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:162% → 1%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.3%
LaMartez Brooks run for 3 yds to the MurrS 22Similar
Q3 5:21
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+1
98.4%
Jawaun Northington run for 1 yd to the MurrS 23Similar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
98.4%
Shotgun McNamee,Isaac pass incomplete short left to Dallas,DeQuan QB hurried by Mims,Kyron PENALTY Murray Illegal Touch-Pass (Frye,Jacob) 5 yards from Murray23 to Murray18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+1
98.6%
Lewis Halton punt for 36 yds , Dean Tate returns for 1 yd to the BalSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22TD
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:5299% → 100%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
98.8%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+15
98.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Ryan Lezon for 15 yds to the MurrS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
98.8%
Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the MurrS 30Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+7
98.8%
Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the MurrS 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
98.8%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the MurrS 22Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+7
98.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Dean Tate for 7 yds to the MurrS 15Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+2
98.8%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 2 yds to the MurrS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
98.8%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the MurrS 8Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+2
99.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Carson Steele for 2 yds to the MurrS 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+5
99.1%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the MurrS 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 23INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:460% → 0%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
99.9%
Isaac McNamee pass complete to DeQuan Dallas for 22 yds to the MurrS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Jawaun Northington run for no gain to the MurrS 47Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
99.9%
Isaac McNamee pass complete to Deshun Britten for 7 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q4 12:27
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Isaac McNamee pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24INT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-9
99.9%
John Paddock sacked by Nick Walker for a loss of 9 yards to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 19
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
Ryan Lezon run for 3 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 16
OWN 36
-15
99.9%
BALL ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:350% → 0%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
99.9%
Jawaun Northington run for 2 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+2
99.9%
Jawaun Northington run for 2 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
99.9%
Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to Taylor ShieldsSimilar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 6
OPP 12
0
99.9%
Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to Taylor ShieldsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:35100% → 100%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+18
99.9%
Carson Steele run for 18 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.9%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd to the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+1
99.9%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 1 yd to the BalSt 32Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Dean Tate run for no gain to the BalSt 32Similar
Q4 6:52
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+13
99.9%
Lucas Borrow punt for 52 yds for a 1ST down , Dameon Gomes returns for 13 yds to the MurrS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 27FUMBLE
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:190% → 0%
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Isaac McNamee pass incomplete to Taylor ShieldsSimilar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
100.0%
Isaac McNamee run for 4 yds to the MurrS 40 Isaac McNamee fumbled, recovered by MurrS Brandon BergerSimilar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
100.0%
Isaac McNamee run for 4 yds to the MurrS 40 Isaac McNamee fumbled, recovered by MurrS Brandon BergerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
10 plays · 39 yds · 6:33100% → 100%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
99.9%
Rico Barfield run for 1 yd to the MurrS 41Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+1
99.9%
Rico Barfield run for 1 yd to the MurrS 40Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+17
99.9%
Rico Barfield run for 17 yds to the MurrS 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.9%
Rico Barfield run for 3 yds to the MurrS 20Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+3
99.9%
Rico Barfield run for 3 yds to the MurrS 17Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+10
99.9%
Rico Barfield run for 10 yds to the MurrS 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
99.9%
Rico Barfield run for 3 yds to the MurrS 4Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
100.0%
Rico Barfield run for 3 yds to the MurrS 1Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
100.0%
Rico Barfield run for no gain to the MurrS 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:57
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 14 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)
+3.8
TD · Q2 7:59
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 18 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)
+2.4
KEY PLAY · Q1 0:00
Cortezz Jones run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line
-1.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com