2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadRMU aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreRMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:08 · George Souders III punt for 48 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q4 0:19: Michael Benson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — RMU win probability +2.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: RMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:37: Mac Hippenhammer 22 Yd pass from Aveon Smith (Graham Nicholson Kick) — M-OH win probability +0.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:29: Keyon Mozee 1 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick) — M-OH win probability +2.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:47: Mac Hippenhammer 18 Yd pass from Aveon Smith (Graham Nicholson Kick) — M-OH win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:19: Amir Jordan 8 Yd pass from Jake Simmons (Jayson Jenkins Kick) — RMU win probability +2.0 pts (now 3%) (top driver: RMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6RMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
- Q1 12:22M-OH 4th & 5 at RMU 28, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snapGo for it95.9%41% to convertField goalTheir call95.9%−<0.160% to makePunt95.5%−0.3average punt
- Q1 9:13RMU 4th & 11 at M-OH 28, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call4.4%60% to makePunt4.1%−0.3average punt
- Q1 0:43RMU 4th & 2 at M-OH 48, down 6Close callPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:21M-OH 4th & 8 at M-OH 26, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snapGo for it93.5%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.6%average punt
- Q2 10:37RMU 4th & 12 at RMU 36, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snapGo for it5.8%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.1%average punt
- Q2 0:08RMU 4th & 8 at midfield, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.6%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.6%average punt
- Q3 11:34RMU 4th & 10 at RMU 45, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q3 0:00M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 26, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snapGo for it97.1%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.1%average punt
- Q3 6:44RMU 4th & 2 at RMU 31, down 17Close callPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it4.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%−0.1average punt
- Q3 3:39M-OH 4th & 10 at RMU 12, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.3%−0.425% to convertField goalTheir call96.6%86% to makePunt94.4%−2.2average punt
- Q3 1:28RMU 4th & 1 at RMU 46, down 17Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 3.5% before the snapGo for it3.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%−1.1average punt
- Q4 14:51M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 26, up 17Close callPunted · 96.9% before the snapGo for it97.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%−0.2average punt
- Q4 13:33RMU 4th & 23 at RMU 29, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it1.9%−1.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.1%average punt
- Q4 9:08RMU 4th & 10 at RMU 25, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q4 3:25M-OH 4th & 3 at RMU 12, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.4%50% to convertField goal99.4%−0.186% to makePunt99.0%−0.4average punt
- Q4 1:05RMU 4th & 1 at RMU 21, down 24Close callPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 0 of 1RMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q4 9:47M-OH Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%−0.197% to makeGo for two99.4%45% to convert
- Q4 0:19RMU Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.3%97% to makeGo for two1.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartM-OHDrive 1FUMBLE1 play · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.3%
Jaylon Bester run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 27 Jaylon Bester fumbled, recovered by RbtMr Jacob WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2FG20 plays · 47 yds · 12:2296% → 93%
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+6
93.3%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kevin Davis for 6 yds to the RbtMr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 3TD5 plays · 81 yds · 10:175% → 7%
RMUDrive 4MISSED FG4 plays · -1 yds · 9:135% → 7%
M-OHDrive 5TD11 plays · 62 yds · 9:1396% → 94%
Q1 9:13
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+9
95.6%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Nate Muersch for 9 yds to the RbtMr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+7
95.1%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 7 yds to the RbtMr 38Similar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
95.1%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Nate Muersch, broken up by Sydney Audiger ROBERT MORRIS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Sydney Audiger) to the RbtMr 17Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+9
94.1%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Nate Muersch for 9 yds to the RbtMr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 29 yds · 0:436% → 7%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+7
93.5%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to Devon Mondy for 7 yds to the RbtMr 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
93.5%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to Devon Mondy for 10 yds to the RbtMr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
93.3%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to Kimon O'Sullivan for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT3 plays · 13 yds · 0:3994% → 93%
M-OHDrive 8TD1 play · 22 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
94.3%
Mac Hippenhammer 22 Yd pass from Aveon Smith (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 9INT4 plays · 17 yds · 12:446% → 8%
RMUDrive 10Uncategorized4 plays · -10 yds · 10:375% → 5%
Q2 10:37
4TH & 12
OWN 36
+7
95.2%
George Souders III punt for 44 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 7 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
94.4%
ROBERT MORRIS Penalty, Offensive holding (Ryan Iiams) to the RbtMr 28Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+5
94.9%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to Jamal Hill for 5 yds to the RbtMr 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11INT3 plays · 33 yds · 9:0296% → 96%
RMUDrive 12INT5 plays · 12 yds · 6:165% → 6%
Q2 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+11
94.4%
Anthony Chiccitt pass complete to Devon Mondy for 11 yds to the MiaOh 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13TD7 plays · 43 yds · 2:2996% → 96%
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+18
95.9%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kevin Davis for 18 yds to the RbtMr 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 25 yds · 1:035% → 5%
M-OHDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 11:344% → 3%
Q3 11:34
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+8
96.0%
George Souders III punt for 43 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 8 yds to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
96.7%
Jake Simmons pass complete to Parker Fetterman for 13 yds to the RbtMr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
96.7%
Jake Simmons pass incomplete to Demonte Martin, broken up by John Saunders Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17PUNT3 plays · 6 yds · 10:4696% → 97%
Q3 0:00
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+41
96.8%
Dom Dzioban punt for 41 yds , Tahseen Howard returns for no gain to the RbtMr 23 , Tahseen Howard returns for no gain to the RbtMr 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 6:444% → 3%
Q3 6:44
4TH & 2
OWN 31
+9
96.1%
George Souders III punt for 44 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 9 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19MISSED FG8 plays · 54 yds · 3:4497% → 97%
RMUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:284% → 3%
M-OHDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0997% → 97%
RMUDrive 22Uncategorized3 plays · -8 yds · 13:333% → 2%
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-9
98.2%
Jamal Hill sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the RbtMr 34 ROBERT MORRIS Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the RbtMr 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23TD7 plays · 67 yds · 9:4799% → 100%
RMUDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 9:081% → 1%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Jake Simmons pass incomplete to Demonte Martin, broken up by Dominic NardoneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25DOWNS12 plays · 61 yds · 4:5599% → 100%
RMUDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:051% → 1%
Q4 1:05
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
99.5%
George Souders III punt for 39 yds , Kevin Davis returns for no gain to the MiaOh 28 Kevin Davis fumbled, recovered by RbtMr William Barber , return for no gain to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+6
99.5%
Jake Simmons pass complete to Jack Oedekoven for 6 yds to the RbtMr 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 27TD5 plays · 28 yds · 0:193% → 3%
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
97.7%
Jake Simmons pass complete to Jamal Hill for 7 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+13
97.8%
for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, personal foul (Nasir Washington) to the MiaOh 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.5%
Jake Simmons pass complete to Jamal Hill ROBERT MORRIS Penalty, illegal touching (Jamal Hill) to the MiaOh 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 28Uncategorized1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:29
Keyon Mozee 1 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)
+2.3
FG · Q4 0:19
Michael Benson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
-2.1
TD · Q4 0:19
Amir Jordan 8 Yd pass from Jake Simmons (Jayson Jenkins Kick)
-2