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USA

South Alabama 38 at Central Michigan 24

CMU
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:35 · Marshall Meeder 36 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Home team on offense−28.1Score differential−15.2Pregame prior+6.5Garbage-time factor−6.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:29: La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +5.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:05: Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 22 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +5.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:14: Jalen Wayne 10 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Carter Bradley Pass to Devin Voisin for Two-Point Conversion) — USA win probability +18.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 12:14: Timeout SOUTH ALABAMA, clock 12:14 — CMU win probability +7.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 5:47: Diego Guajardo 36 yd FG GOOD — USA win probability +7.5 pts (now 67%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 14:39CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:51USA 4th & 5 at USA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:48CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:35CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 34, down 6
    Close callPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00CMU 4th & 6 at midfield, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:17CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:47USA 4th & 12 at CMU 18, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:49CMU 4th & 18 at CMU 17, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−3.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:12USA 4th & 9 at USA 38, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:12USA 4th & 9 at USA 38, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:12CMU 4th & 4 at USA 20, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−6.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:21CMU 4th & 14 at USA 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    23.4%−2.0
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:18USA 4th & 2 at USA 26, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.8
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:35CMU 4th & 14 at USA 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−2.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−7.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:00USA 4th & 2 at CMU 15, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    94.7%−0.4
    83% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−3.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:59CMU 4th & 14 at USA 39, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%
    36% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:39USA 4th & 13 at USA 44, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:39CMU 4th & 1 at USA 47, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:51USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:08CMU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:29USA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:05USA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:14USA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    56.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:53USA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:43CMU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.3%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:30CMU Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    4.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:2168% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
67.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Dallas DixonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
67.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Carlos CarriereSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
67.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Carlos CarriereSimilar
Q1 14:39
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
67.4%
Luke Elzinga punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4833% → 33%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
67.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 14:39
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
67.5%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
67.4%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+5
67.4%
Jack Brooks punt for 42 yds , Jordyn Williams returns for 5 yds to the CMich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5967% → 67%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
67.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Jalen McGaughySimilar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
67.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Myles BaileySimilar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+4
67.2%
Myles Bailey run for 4 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
67.1%
Luke Elzinga punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 2:4233% → 35%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
67.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 10 yds to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
67.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 6 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+40
66.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 40 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
66.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the CMich 31Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+12
66.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 12 yds to the CMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
66.1%
Terrion Avery run for 3 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+16
65.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Damarcus Thomas for 16 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1666% → 65%
Q1 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
65.5%
Myles Bailey run for 9 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
65.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Carlos CarriereSimilar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
65.5%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the CMich 34Similar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
64.9%
Luke Elzinga punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the SAlab 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:1935% → 35%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+51
65.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 36 yds to the CENTMICH 47 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Jayden Davis) to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-23
64.3%
Carter Bradley sacked by Thomas Incoom for a loss of 23 yards to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 33
OWN 45
0
64.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Lincoln SefcikSimilar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 33
OWN 45
0
64.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 33
OWN 45
+25
65.1%
Jack Brooks punt for 43 yds , Jordyn Williams returns for 25 yds to the CMich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:0865% → 69%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
65.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 12 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
65.8%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+43
65.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Dallas Dixon for 43 yds to the SAlab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
68.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 2:2933% → 40%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
66.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Damarcus Thomas for 8 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+7
66.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
50
0
65.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 10
50
+5
66.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 5 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+7
66.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 7 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
65.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+12
65.9%
Carter Bradley run for 12 yds to the CMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
65.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Damarcus Thomas for 14 yds to the CMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
65.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 9 yds to the CMich 3Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
60.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:1240% → 45%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
60.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
60.5%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Omni WellsSimilar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+22
54.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 22 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:0557% → 57%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
57.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 21 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
57.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 6
50
0
58.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Dallas DixonSimilar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 6
50
0
57.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Joel WilsonSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 6
50
0
56.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Dallas DixonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:4646% → 65%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
53.9%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+26
53.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 26 yds to the CMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
53.5%
Terrion Avery run for 3 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+5
53.5%
Terrion Avery run for 5 yds to the CMich 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+3
53.7%
Terrion Avery run for 3 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
35.3%
Jalen Wayne 10 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Carter Bradley Pass to Devin Voisin for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:5748% → 43%
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
47.7%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the CMich 14Similar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+5
47.6%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Dallas Dixon for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Sideline Inteference (Wy'Kevious Thomas) to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
48.3%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Jalen McGaughySimilar
Q2 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
48.0%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the CMich 35Similar
Q2 12:14
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
47.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for no gain to the CMich 35Similar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
43.3%
Luke Elzinga punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 4:3058% → 67%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
41.6%
Braylon McReynolds run for no gain to the SAlab 20Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
41.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 4 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+18
41.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 18 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
40.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 5 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+7
40.7%
Marco Lee run for 7 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
40.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to La'Damian WebbSimilar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+15
40.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 15 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
40.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bradley,Carter pass incomplete short left to Wayne,Jalen, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CMU Pass Interference (Sturkey,Rolliann) 15 yards from CMU31 to CMU16, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
39.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 12
OPP 18
0
40.1%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Lincoln SefcikSimilar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 12
OPP 18
0
40.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q2 5:47
4TH & 12
OPP 18
+36
32.9%
Diego Guajardo 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:5836% → 35%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
36.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
36.1%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brayden Swartout) to the CMich 17Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
35.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Joel WilsonSimilar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
35.7%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Jalen McGaughySimilar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+27
34.5%
Luke Elzinga punt for 49 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 27 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:3771% → 75%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
28.8%
Terrion Avery run for 5 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+8
28.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 8 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
28.0%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
27.7%
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the SAlab 38Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
27.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Damarcus ThomasSimilar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
25.2%
Jack Brooks punt for 42 yds for a 1ST down , Jordyn Williams returns for no gain to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
25.2%
Jack Brooks punt for 42 yds for a 1ST down , Jordyn Williams returns for no gain to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:5131% → 31%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+39
31.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 39 yds to the SAlab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
34.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 6 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
34.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Finn HoganSimilar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
34.0%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Dallas DixonSimilar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 4
OPP 20
0
33.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 10 yds to the SAlab 10 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Davis Heinzen) to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 14
OPP 30
+48
30.6%
Marshall Meeder 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:5979% → 81%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
20.9%
PENALTY USA Delay Of Game 5 yards from USA18 to USA13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+11
22.1%
Carter Bradley run for 11 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+1
20.9%
Omni Wells run for 1 yd to the SAlab 25Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+1
19.8%
Omni Wells run for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
19.1%
Jack Brooks punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jordyn Williams at the CMich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
25.9%
Daniel Richardson sacked by CJ Rias for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19INT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:5481% → 83%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
19.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 4 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
18.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 4 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+2
19.6%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
18.7%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
18.7%
Terrion Avery run for 6 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
17.1%
Carter Bradley pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20MISSED FG
14 plays · 40 yds · 5:3123% → 15%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
23.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 15
OWN 28
+15
22.5%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaden Voisin) to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
24.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CMich 38Similar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 20
OWN 38
0
23.3%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Lew Nichols IIISimilar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 20
OWN 38
+11
23.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 11 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+12
24.4%
Daniel Richardson run for 12 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
25.3%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the SAlab 39Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
25.0%
Daniel Richardson run for 7 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+3
25.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
26.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Chris Parker for 15 yds to the SAlab 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
26.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the SAlab 12Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 8
OPP 12
-6
26.1%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Wy'Kevious Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 18Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 14
OPP 18
0
24.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Sam HicksSimilar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 14
OPP 18
+36
14.9%
Marshall Meeder 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21DOWNS
15 plays · 61 yds · 6:3590% → 96%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
10.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
10.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 8 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
10.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the SAlab 31Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+4
10.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 4 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
10.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin Voisin for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offside Pass Interference (Donte Kent) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
50
0
5.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 10
50
0
5.1%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 10
50
+12
5.1%
Carter Bradley run for 12 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
5.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
5.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 15 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
4.9%
Terrion Avery run for 1 yd to the CMich 24Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+1
5.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+10
5.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 10 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 2
OPP 15
-4
3.6%
Carter Bradley sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:016% → 4%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
6.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 18Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+8
6.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 8 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+13
5.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 13 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
5.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Carlos Carriere for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ricky Fletcher) to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
6.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 8 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+3
6.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
6.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Jalen McGaughySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-8
6.5%
Daniel Richardson sacked by James Miller for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 43
+4
5.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 4 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
4.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Finn HoganSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:0698% → 100%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
2.4%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
2.4%
La'Damian Webb run for 8 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+1
2.4%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the CMich 43Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
-10
2.2%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+16
2.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 16 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
0.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 30 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:100% → 3%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
0.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 11 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
0.2%
Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the CMich 37Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+2
0.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Myles Bailey for 2 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+22
0.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Myles Bailey for 22 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
0.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Myles Bailey for 3 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 13
OPP 42
0
0.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Joel WilsonSimilar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 13
OPP 42
+21
0.2%
Marion Lukes run for 21 yds to the SAlab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
0.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 9 yds to the SAlab 12Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+12
2.6%
Marion Lukes run for 12 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
Q4 8:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
2.6%
PENALTY CMU Delay Of Game 5 yards from USA03 to USA03. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:3699% → 99%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
1.3%
Marco Lee run for 4 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
1.3%
Marco Lee run for 1 yd to the CMich 48Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-8
1.3%
Caullin Lacy run for 2 yds to the SAlab 46 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jacob Hopper) to the SAlab 44Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 13
OWN 44
0
1.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Braylon McReynoldsSimilar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 13
OWN 44
+12
1.1%
Jack Brooks punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 18 , Jordyn Williams returns for 12 yds to the CMich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 2:091% → 6%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
1.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 6 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+5
1.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 5 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
1.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Richardson,Daniel pass incomplete short right to McGaughy,Jalen, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY USA Pass Interference (Luter Jr.,Darrell) 15 yards from CMU29 to CMU44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
1.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 4
50
0
1.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Finn HoganSimilar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 4
50
+3
1.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Chris Parker for 3 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+10
1.3%
Myles Bailey run for 10 yds to the SAlab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
1.3%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Carlos CarriereSimilar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+16
1.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 16 yds to the SAlab 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
1.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
5.6%
Joel Wilson 21 Yd pass from Daniel Richardson (Daniel Richardson Pass to D.C. Temple for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 27END OF GAME
9 plays · 45 yds · 4:3097% → 99%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
3.1%
Terrion Avery run for 1 yd to the CMich 45Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+18
3.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 18 yds to the CMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
3.0%
Terrion Avery run for 1 yd to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+19
3.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 19 yds to the CMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
3.0%
Marco Lee run for 2 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
3.0%
Terrion Avery run for 2 yds to the CMich 3Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
1.4%
Marco Lee run for 2 yds to the CMich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:14
Jalen Wayne 10 Yd pass from Carter Bradley (Carter Bradley Pass to Devin Voisin for Two-Point Conversion)
-18.4
TD · Q2 12:14
Timeout SOUTH ALABAMA, clock 12:14
+7.5
FG · Q2 5:47
Diego Guajardo 36 yd FG GOOD
-7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com