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HC

Holy Cross 37 at Buffalo 31

BUF
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadHC aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreHC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:26 · Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin Marshall, broken up by Hugh Kelly
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Home team on offense−5.8Pregame prior+0.9Garbage-time factor−6.1Score differential−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:50: Quian Williams 59 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick) — BUF win probability +6.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:08: Justin Marshall 69 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick) — BUF win probability +11.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:32: Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jalen Coker for 62 yds for a TD, (Derek Ng KICK) — HC win probability +24.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: HC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:31: Alex McNulty 52 Yd Field Goal — BUF win probability +17.4 pts (now 57%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Jalen Coker 46 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka — HC win probability +44.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: HC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6HC made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 13:05BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:45HC 4th & 7 at HC 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:24BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:24HC 4th & 1 at HC 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:09HC 4th & 7 at BUF 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    29.9%−0.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:22HC 4th & 5 at HC 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−1.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 2:42BUF 4th & 15 at BUF 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−4.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:13BUF 4th & 9 at HC 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    47.7%−0.8
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:12HC 4th & 8 at BUF 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−20.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:26BUF 4th & 9 at HC 35, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.7 ptsWent for it · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%−3.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−9.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:18HC 4th & 2 at HC 43, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.9 ptsPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−4.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:31BUF 4th & 10 at HC 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−8.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.7%
    47% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−17.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 2:32HC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
15 plays · 3 yds · 13:0565% → 69%
Q1 13:05
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
65.0%
Jackson Baltar punt for 52 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-3
69.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
68.5%
Cole Snyder sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 11:4534% → 31%
Q1 11:45
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+14
66.2%
Patrick Haughney punt for 51 yds , Quian Williams returns for 14 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
68.5%
Peter Oliver run for 1 yd to the HCrss 21Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
68.5%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Justin Shorter for 2 yds to the HCrss 23Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
69.0%
pass incomplete to Jalen CokerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 10:2466% → 69%
Q1 10:24
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
66.4%
Cole Snyder punt for 56 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
69.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+2
69.8%
Cole Snyder run for 2 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
69.3%
pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 8:2433% → 31%
Q1 8:24
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
67.1%
Patrick Haughney punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 8 , Quian Williams returns for no gain to the Buff 29 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (Jayden Oliver) to the Buff 8Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
68.5%
HOLY CROSS Penalty, false start (Sean Morris) to the HCrss 15Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+6
68.6%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Ayir Asante for 6 yds to the HCrss 21Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
68.5%
Peter Oliver run for 1 yd to the HCrss 22Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+7
69.1%
Matthew Sluka run for 7 yds to the HCrss 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 3:1169% → 70%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+20
69.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 20 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
68.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 14 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
68.9%
Mike Washington run for 7 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+4
69.4%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
69.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 11 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
69.9%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+25
69.9%
Cole Snyder run for 25 yds to the HCrss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
70.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the HCrss 28Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+8
70.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 8 yds to the HCrss 20Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+5
69.7%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the HCrss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
70.2%
BUFFALO Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the HCrss 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0932% → 32%
Q1 0:09
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
68.5%
Patrick Haughney punt for 31 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
68.5%
Matthew Sluka run for 14 yds to the HCrss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
67.8%
Matthew Sluka run for 1 yd to the HCrss 40Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+11
67.9%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Dominik Thomas for 11 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
67.1%
Matthew Sluka sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the HCrss 45Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 45
+14
68.3%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Tyler Purdy for 14 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
0
67.1%
pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 41
-5
67.8%
HOLY CROSS Penalty, false start (Grady Smith) to the Buff 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 4:0469% → 71%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
68.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 14 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
70.2%
Mike Washington run for 14 yds to the HCrss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
71.4%
Mike Washington 5 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 6:4932% → 32%
Q2 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
67.8%
Matthew Sluka run for 3 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
69.1%
pass incomplete to Ayir AsanteSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
67.6%
Jordan Fuller 4 Yd Run (Derek Ng Kick)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
72.2%
Jordan Fuller run for a loss of 2 yards to the HCrss 23Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+13
72.4%
Jordan Fuller run for 13 yds to the HCrss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
71.4%
Matthew Sluka run for 18 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
69.1%
HOLY CROSS Penalty, Offensive holding (Pat McMurtrie) to the HCrss 44Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+2
71.5%
Peter Oliver run for 2 yds to the HCrss 46Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 46
+21
71.7%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Justin Shorter for 21 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
67.6%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 2:5074% → 74%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
74.0%
Quian Williams 59 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
73.3%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+4
73.4%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
73.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 5 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2533% → 33%
Q2 1:25
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+7
67.1%
Matthew Sluka run for 7 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
67.1%
Matthew Sluka pass incomplete to Spencer Gilliam, broken up by Marcus FuquaSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+17
69.0%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Ayir Asante for 17 yds for a TD, (Derek Ng KICK)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
72.2%
Jordan Fuller run for 20 yds to the HCrss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
70.4%
Matthew Sluka run for 26 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
67.2%
Matthew Sluka run for 5 yds to the Buff 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
1 play · 69 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+69
78.3%
Justin Marshall 69 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 12TD
1 play · 62 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
54.3%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jalen Coker for 62 yds for a TD, (Derek Ng KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 13TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 8:4947% → 49%
Q3 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
52.8%
Jordan Fuller run for 1 yd to the Buff 2Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
52.8%
Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
53.8%
Jordan Fuller 2 Yd Run (Derek Ng Kick)Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
55.8%
Peter Oliver run for 4 yds to the HCrss 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
54.8%
Peter Oliver run for 3 yds to the HCrss 32Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
55.7%
Matthew Sluka run for 8 yds to the HCrss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
52.9%
Matthew Sluka run for 21 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
51.0%
Peter Oliver run for 4 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-5
49.1%
HOLY CROSS Penalty, false start (C.J. Hanson) to the Buff 40Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
0
51.1%
Matthew Sluka pass incomplete to Justin Shorter, broken up by Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+15
53.5%
Matthew Sluka pass incomplete to Jalen Coker for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jayden Oliver) to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
49.1%
Jordan Fuller run for 2 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+2
49.1%
Matthew Sluka run for 2 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+10
50.9%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Justin Shorter for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive holding (Logic Hudgens) to the Buff 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
49.1%
Matthew Sluka run for 4 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
49.1%
pass incomplete to Ayir AsanteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+4
50.9%
Matthew Sluka run for 1 yd to the Buff 6 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Ibrahim Kante) to the Buff 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 5:2241% → 46%
Q3 5:22
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
59.1%
Patrick Haughney punt for 37 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
55.2%
Peter Oliver run for 3 yds to the HCrss 33Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
54.6%
Matthew Sluka run for 4 yds to the HCrss 37Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 37
-2
54.1%
Matthew Sluka run for a loss of 2 yards to the HCrss 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
3 plays · 7 yds · 4:5160% → 60%
Q3 4:51
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+6
60.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 6 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 2:42
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
57.1%
Jackson Baltar punt for 27 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
60.1%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:4760% → 49%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
60.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 5 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
63.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
62.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 5 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
63.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
54.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 7 yds to the HCrss 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
54.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the HCrss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
55.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Quian Williams, broken up by Devin HaskinsSimilar
Q4 13:13
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
48.5%
Jackson Baltar punt for 9 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 17FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 9:0367% → 88%
Q4 9:03
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+27
32.9%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jalen Coker for 27 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, off-side. ( Yards) to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+5
31.0%
Matthew Sluka run for 5 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 4
OPP 7
-4
32.8%
Matthew Sluka sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 11Similar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+28
34.0%
Derek Ng 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
14.3%
Matthew Sluka run for 3 yds to the HCrss 33Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
14.2%
pass incomplete to Dominik ThomasSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
14.9%
Matthew Sluka pass incomplete BUFFALO Penalty, intentional grounding (Matthew Sluka) to the HCrss 33Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+8
14.9%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Spencer Gilliam for 8 yds to the HCrss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
13.3%
Tyler Purdy run for 4 yds to the HCrss 45Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+7
13.1%
Matthew Sluka run for 7 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
12.2%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Ayir Asante for 5 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
12.0%
Matthew Sluka run for 3 yds to the Buff 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:2638% → 29%
Q4 3:26
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
37.5%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin Marshall, broken up by Hugh KellySimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.7%
Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-15
25.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 25 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (Justin Marshall) to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+16
20.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Robbie Mangas for 16 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
23.7%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the Buff 37Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+11
23.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 11 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+16
26.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 16 yds to the HCrss 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
29.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the HCrss 35Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
34.2%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Ron Cook Jr., broken up by Devin HaskinsSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
29.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Ron Cook Jr., broken up by Devin HaskinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:3480% → 87%
Q4 2:34
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
20.0%
Matthew Sluka pass incomplete to Ayir Asante, broken up by Jahmin MuseSimilar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
21.8%
Patrick Haughney punt for 41 ydsSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
14.3%
Jordan Fuller run for 5 yds to the HCrss 40Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
13.3%
Matthew Sluka run for 3 yds to the HCrss 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 1:0639% → 64%
Q4 1:06
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+6
39.2%
Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the HCrss 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
40.4%
pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
40.0%
pass incomplete to Mike WashingtonSimilar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+52
57.4%
Alex McNulty 52 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
57.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 11 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
58.3%
Cole Snyder run for 11 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
60.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 9 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+5
63.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the HCrss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
64.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 8 yds to the HCrss 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 21TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2450% → 94%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
49.6%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jalen Coker for 12 yds to the HCrss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
50.8%
Matthew Sluka run for 10 yds to the HCrss 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+46
6.3%
Jalen Coker 46 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:00
Jalen Coker 46 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka
-44.4
TD · Q3 2:32
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jalen Coker for 62 yds for a TD, (Derek Ng KICK)
-24
FG · Q4 0:31
Alex McNulty 52 Yd Field Goal
+17.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com