2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadHC aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreHC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:45 · Patrick Haughney punt for 51 yds , Quian Williams returns for 14 yds to the Buff 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:50: Quian Williams 59 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick) — BUF win probability +6.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:08: Justin Marshall 69 Yd pass from Cole Snyder (Alex McNulty Kick) — BUF win probability +11.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:32: Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jalen Coker for 62 yds for a TD, (Derek Ng KICK) — HC win probability +24.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: HC has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:31: Alex McNulty 52 Yd Field Goal — BUF win probability +17.4 pts (now 57%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:00: Jalen Coker 46 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka — HC win probability +44.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: HC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6HC made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 13:05BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snapGo for it66.6%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.7%average punt
- Q1 11:45HC 4th & 7 at HC 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snapGo for it32.1%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.2%average punt
- Q1 10:24BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snapGo for it67.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.0%average punt
- Q1 8:24HC 4th & 1 at HC 29, down 7Close callPunted · 31.4% before the snapGo for it31.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.3%−0.3average punt
- Q1 0:09HC 4th & 7 at BUF 46, down 7Close callPunted · 30.3% before the snapGo for it30.5%37% to convertField goal29.9%−0.723% to makePuntTheir call30.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 5:22HC 4th & 5 at HC 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snapGo for it40.7%−1.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.8%average punt
- Q3 2:42BUF 4th & 15 at BUF 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snapGo for it55.5%−4.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.0%average punt
- Q4 13:13BUF 4th & 9 at HC 39, down 3Close callPunted · 48.9% before the snapGo for it48.5%32% to convertField goal47.7%−0.836% to makePuntTheir call47.8%−0.7average punt
- Q4 7:12HC 4th & 8 at BUF 11, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.8% before the snapGo for it62.7%−1.629% to convertField goalTheir call64.3%87% to makePunt43.8%−20.5average punt
- Q4 3:26BUF 4th & 9 at HC 35, down 3Numbers favored field goal by 3.7 ptsWent for it · 37.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.7%−3.732% to convertField goal36.4%45% to makePunt27.3%−9.1average punt
- Q4 2:18HC 4th & 2 at HC 43, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 4.9 ptsPunted · 78.1% before the snapGo for it78.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.8%−4.9average punt
- Q4 0:31BUF 4th & 10 at HC 34, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.9% before the snapGo for it22.1%−8.630% to convertField goalTheir call30.7%47% to makePunt13.4%−17.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q3 2:32HC Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.7%97% to makeGo for two37.4%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBUFDrive 1PUNT15 plays · 3 yds · 13:0565% → 69%
HCDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 11:4534% → 31%
BUFDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 10:2466% → 69%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 8:2433% → 31%
Q1 8:24
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
67.1%
Patrick Haughney punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 8 , Quian Williams returns for no gain to the Buff 29 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (Jayden Oliver) to the Buff 8Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+6
68.6%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Ayir Asante for 6 yds to the HCrss 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD11 plays · 92 yds · 3:1169% → 70%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+20
69.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 20 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
68.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 14 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
69.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 11 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0932% → 32%
BUFDrive 7TD3 plays · 85 yds · 4:0469% → 71%
HCDrive 8TD10 plays · 75 yds · 6:4932% → 32%
BUFDrive 9TD4 plays · 70 yds · 2:5074% → 74%
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
73.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 5 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 10TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2533% → 33%
BUFDrive 11TD1 play · 69 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 12TD1 play · 62 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
54.3%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jalen Coker for 62 yds for a TD, (Derek Ng KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 13TD17 plays · 75 yds · 8:4947% → 49%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
0
51.1%
Matthew Sluka pass incomplete to Justin Shorter, broken up by Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+15
53.5%
Matthew Sluka pass incomplete to Jalen Coker for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jayden Oliver) to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+10
50.9%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Justin Shorter for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive holding (Logic Hudgens) to the Buff 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+4
50.9%
Matthew Sluka run for 1 yd to the Buff 6 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Ibrahim Kante) to the Buff 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 5:2241% → 46%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT3 plays · 7 yds · 4:5160% → 60%
BUFDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 1:4760% → 49%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
60.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 5 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
62.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 5 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
54.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 7 yds to the HCrss 44Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
55.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Quian Williams, broken up by Devin HaskinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 17FG12 plays · 59 yds · 9:0367% → 88%
Q4 9:03
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+27
32.9%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jalen Coker for 27 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, off-side. ( Yards) to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
14.9%
Matthew Sluka pass incomplete BUFFALO Penalty, intentional grounding (Matthew Sluka) to the HCrss 33Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+8
14.9%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Spencer Gilliam for 8 yds to the HCrss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
12.2%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Ayir Asante for 5 yds to the Buff 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18DOWNS10 plays · 40 yds · 3:2638% → 29%
Q4 3:26
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
37.5%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin Marshall, broken up by Hugh KellySimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-15
25.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 25 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (Justin Marshall) to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+16
20.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Robbie Mangas for 16 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+11
23.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 11 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
34.2%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Ron Cook Jr., broken up by Devin HaskinsSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
29.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Ron Cook Jr., broken up by Devin HaskinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 2:3480% → 87%
Q4 2:34
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
20.0%
Matthew Sluka pass incomplete to Ayir Asante, broken up by Jahmin MuseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20FG9 plays · 50 yds · 1:0639% → 64%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
57.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 11 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
60.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 9 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
64.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 8 yds to the HCrss 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 21TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2450% → 94%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
49.6%
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jalen Coker for 12 yds to the HCrss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:00
Jalen Coker 46 Yd pass from Matthew Sluka
-44.4
TD · Q3 2:32
Matthew Sluka pass complete to Jalen Coker for 62 yds for a TD, (Derek Ng KICK)
-24
FG · Q4 0:31
Alex McNulty 52 Yd Field Goal
+17.4