Try the model
WMU

Western Michigan 37 at Ball State 30

BALL
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Scheumann Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:58 · Nick Mihalic punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differential
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Pregame prior−14.6Home team on offense−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score differential−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:36: La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK) — WMU win probability +15.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:34: Carson Steele run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK) — BALL win probability +13.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:50: La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK) — WMU win probability +15.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:59: Corey Crooms 12 Yd pass from Jack Salopek (Anthony Sambucci Pass to Jack Salopek for Two-Point Conversion) — WMU win probability +24.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:10: Amir Abdur-Rahman 39 Yd pass from John Paddock (Ben VonGunten Kick) — BALL win probability +27.1 pts (now 65%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 10WMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 14:37WMU 4th & 1 at BALL 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.0%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:58WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:06BALL 4th & 3 at WMU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:17WMU 4th & 2 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    58.7%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:30WMU 4th & 4 at BALL 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    57.3%−0.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    56.7%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:16BALL 4th & 6 at BALL 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:19WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:09BALL 4th & 4 at BALL 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:16WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:32BALL 4th & 3 at WMU 44, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    45.5%−2.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:14WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 22, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:43BALL 4th & 3 at WMU 30, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.6%−0.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    46.8%−2.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:00WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 37, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:14BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 30, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:34BALL 4th & 1 at WMU 1, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    49.5%−4.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−15.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:38BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 30, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:54WMU 4th & 3 at BALL 49, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.8%−1.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:42BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−2.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:47BALL 4th & 8 at WMU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%−1.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−3.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:47WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    83.9%−2.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:00WMU 4th & 12 at midfield, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.4%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:58WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:00BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:36WMU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:34BALL Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:50WMU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:59WMU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    65.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:10BALL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:1733% → 34%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
33.4%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+11
33.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 11 yds Yo'Heinz Tyler fumbled, recovered by WMich Braden FiskeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:3967% → 67%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
33.5%
Sean Tyler run for 6 yds to the BalSt 27 Sean Tyler fumbled, recovered by WMich Corey CroomsSimilar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+5
33.5%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 5 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
33.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 21Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
33.5%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Jehlani GallowaySimilar
Q1 14:37
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+8
33.5%
Jack Salopek run for 8 yds to the BalSt 13Similar
Q1 14:37
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+2
33.5%
Mareyohn Hrabowski run for 2 yds to the BalSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
33.5%
Corey Crooms run for 2 yds to the BalSt 13Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+4
33.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the BalSt 9Similar
Q1 14:37
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+5
33.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hrabowski,Mareyohn pass complete short middle to Mack,Kaevion for 3 yards to the BALL06 (Amos,Jaquan) PENALTY BALL Personal Foul (Hughes,Drew) 5 yards from BALL09 to BALL04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
33.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:4734% → 37%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+26
33.7%
Carson Steele run for 26 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
34.1%
Carson Steele run for 10 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+29
34.2%
Carson Steele run for 17 yds to the WMich 24 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (Andre Carter) to the WMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
34.3%
Will Jones run for 10 yds to the WMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
36.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5764% → 63%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
35.7%
Jack Salopek run for 1 yd to the WMich 35Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+7
35.7%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 7 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+4
35.3%
Sean Tyler run for 4 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q1 6:58
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
36.8%
Nick Mihalic punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5FG
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5237% → 40%
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
36.6%
PENALTY WMU Offside (Dabney,Warren) 5 yards from BALL22 to BALL27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 5
OWN 27
0
36.9%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the BalSt 27Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+33
36.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 33 yds to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
37.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 2 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
37.5%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the WMich 38Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+17
37.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 17 yds to the WMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
37.7%
Will Jones run for 1 yd to the WMich 20Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+14
37.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 14 yds to the WMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
37.7%
Will Jones run for 4 yds to the WMich 10Similar
Q1 6:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
37.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 7 yds to the WMich 3Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
37.3%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the WMich 3Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
40.0%
Ben VonGunten 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6DOWNS
15 plays · 44 yds · 3:3660% → 58%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.0%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Jehlani GallowaySimilar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
40.1%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 17 yds to the WMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
39.1%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Kaevion MackSimilar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
39.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
39.7%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 2
50
0
39.2%
Sean Tyler run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:17
4TH & 2
50
+2
39.8%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Sean Tyler for 2 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 2
50
0
39.2%
PENALTY BALL UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting WMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
39.6%
Jack Salopek pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for 11 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-3
39.6%
Jack Salopek run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
38.9%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+3
39.7%
Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 4
OPP 31
0
41.8%
Jack Salopek run for no gain to the BalSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1442% → 42%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
42.4%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Carson SteeleSimilar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
42.3%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+6
41.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 6 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q2 13:30
4TH & 1
OWN 40
-5
42.3%
PENALTY BALL False Start (Turner,Jaylen) 5 yards from BALL40 to BALL35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
42.2%
Lucas Borrow punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5757% → 55%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
42.9%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
43.1%
Sean Tyler run for 4 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
43.1%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Kaevion MackSimilar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
44.6%
Nick Mihalic punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1044% → 43%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.5%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
43.6%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
43.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 10:09
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
43.3%
Lucas Borrow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zahir Abdus-Salaam at the WMich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:5356% → 54%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
44.2%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 17 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
42.7%
Sean Tyler run for 4 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+1
42.4%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Sean Tyler for 1 yd to the WMich 49Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-5
42.5%
PENALTY WMU False Start (Tyler,Sean) 5 yards from WMU49 to WMU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
43.8%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to A.J. AbbottSimilar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
45.6%
Nick Mihalic punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 1:4445% → 48%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
45.3%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
45.1%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 8
OWN 20
-5
44.4%
(07:37) PENALTY BALL False Start (Stewart,Corey) 5 yards from BALL20 to BALL15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 13
OWN 15
+15
44.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Paddock,John pass incomplete short right to Abdur-Rahman,Amir PENALTY WMU Pass Interference (Lovely,Keni-H) 15 yards from BALL15 to BALL30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
45.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 19 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
47.2%
Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q2 8:16
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
47.6%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
47.3%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
46.1%
BALL ST Penalty, Delay Of Game ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:32
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
48.0%
Lucas Borrow punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1853% → 50%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
46.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the WMich 9Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 14
OWN 9
+8
47.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 8 yds to the WMich 17Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+5
47.4%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Blake Bosma for 5 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+5
49.7%
Nick Mihalic punt for 50 yds , Jayshon Jackson returns for 5 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13FG
5 plays · 37 yds · 1:3149% → 56%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+30
48.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 30 yds to the WMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
51.2%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
52.0%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+2
51.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 2 yds to the WMich 30Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+44
56.4%
Ben VonGunten 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14TD
16 plays · 81 yds · 2:0345% → 64%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+20
55.3%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 20 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
53.8%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
50
+4
52.1%
Sean Tyler run for 4 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
52.2%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Jehlani GallowaySimilar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+7
52.5%
Jack Salopek run for 7 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
52.1%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 11 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
50.7%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Jehlani GallowaySimilar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+6
50.9%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 6 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+16
52.2%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 16 yds to the BalSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
50.1%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Blake Bosma for 1 yd to the BalSt 5Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
49.6%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Blake BosmaSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
36.1%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:2742% → 53%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
41.9%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+38
41.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 23 yds to the BALLST 48 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Andre Carter) to the WMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
47.1%
(00:17) No Huddle-Shotgun Paddock,John pass incomplete short right PENALTY BALL Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Turner,Jaylen) 5 yards from WMU33 to WMU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 15
OPP 38
0
43.8%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+11
43.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 11 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+44
52.9%
Ben VonGunten 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 1:5451% → 49%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
48.6%
Jack Salopek run for 1 yd to the WMich 17Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+10
48.9%
Sean Tyler run for 10 yds to the WMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
48.4%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+10
48.8%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 10 yds to the WMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
47.6%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
48.0%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Jehlani GallowaySimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
49.4%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Jehlani GallowaySimilar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
51.3%
Nick Mihalic punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4651% → 50%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
50.8%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+1
50.9%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 27Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+3
49.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 3 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+5
49.6%
Lucas Borrow punt for 35 yds , Zahir Abdus-Salaam returns for 5 yds to the WMich 40 Zahir Abdus-Salaam fumbled, recovered by WMich Will JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:4055% → 69%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
54.9%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the WMich 36Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+4
54.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 4 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q3 11:14
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+29
54.4%
Carson Steele run for 29 yds to the WMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
55.8%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the WMich 3Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
55.8%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the WMich 1Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.5%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the WMich 1Similar
Q3 8:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.8%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4434% → 55%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
66.5%
Jack Salopek run for 10 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
65.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the WMich 34Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+2
66.4%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the WMich 36Similar
Q3 8:34
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+35
66.8%
Jack Salopek pass complete to for 20 yds to the BALLST 44 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Tarango,Joshua) 15 yards from BALL44 to BALL29, 1ST DOWN. (Joshua Tarango) to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
61.0%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+17
61.6%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Joshua Burgett for 17 yds to the BalSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
60.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 7 yds to the BalSt 4Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
45.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1254% → 52%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.7%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
53.7%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
52.7%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
51.5%
Lucas Borrow punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Zahir Abdus-Salaam at the WMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 56 yds · 3:3951% → 77%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
49.1%
Jack Salopek pass complete to A.J. Abbott for 7 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
47.5%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to A.J. AbbottSimilar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
48.7%
Jack Salopek pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+5
51.8%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 5 yds to the BalSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
48.9%
Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+1
48.4%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the BalSt 35Similar
Q3 2:54
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+7
48.6%
Sean Tyler run for 7 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
46.8%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 7 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+9
47.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 9 yds to the BalSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
23.4%
Corey Crooms 12 Yd pass from Jack Salopek (Anthony Sambucci Pass to Jack Salopek for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 1:4434% → 65%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
33.6%
Carson Steele run for 13 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
34.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 8 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+13
37.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 13 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
37.8%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 4 yds to the WMich 47Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
38.9%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+8
38.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 8 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
65.2%
Amir Abdur-Rahman 39 Yd pass from John Paddock (Ben VonGunten Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23INT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:2542% → 48%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.6%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 7 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
54.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
55.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the WMich 37Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+5
56.2%
Jack Salopek pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for 5 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+8
53.7%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
50
+6
51.5%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 6 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
52.3%
Jack Salopek pass intercepted BALL ST Penalty, Personal Foul. ( Yards) to the BalSt 16Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 4
OPP 44
-8
52.3%
Jack Salopek pass intercepted BALL ST Penalty, Personal Foul (8 Yards) to the BalSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:0362% → 63%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
61.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+6
61.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 6 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+15
60.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Paddock,John pass incomplete short middle broken up by Ware,Delano PENALTY WMU Roughing The Passer (Carter,Andre) 15 yards from BALL14 to BALL29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
63.1%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+2
62.9%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
61.7%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q4 7:42
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
63.1%
Lucas Borrow punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Zahir Abdus-Salaam at the WMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 25Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q4 7:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
50.6%
Salopek,Jack pass attempt failed PENALTY BALL Holding (Pearce,Cole) 2 yards from BALL03 to BALL01. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 26DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:3925% → 23%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
24.7%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
24.5%
Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+8
24.9%
John Paddock pass complete to for 8 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
26.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 21 yds to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
30.0%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Dean TateSimilar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
29.8%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 2 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+4
27.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 4 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
22.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 27DOWNS
10 plays · 12 yds · 4:4788% → 94%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
12.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
12.4%
Sean Tyler run for 4 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+3
12.8%
Jack Salopek pass complete to A.J. Abbott for 3 yds to the WMich 47Similar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+5
13.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
11.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+2
4.6%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+1
4.7%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 7
OPP 45
-5
5.5%
PENALTY WMU Delay Of Game 5 yards from BALL45 to BALL50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 12
50
0
5.8%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:10
Amir Abdur-Rahman 39 Yd pass from John Paddock (Ben VonGunten Kick)
+27.1
TD · Q4 14:59
Corey Crooms 12 Yd pass from Jack Salopek (Anthony Sambucci Pass to Jack Salopek for Two-Point Conversion)
-24.3
TD · Q2 0:36
La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK)
-15.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com