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WMU

Western Michigan 13 at Michigan State 35

MSU
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2022 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:29 · Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the WMich 43 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:55: Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 13 yds for a TD, (Jack Stone KICK) — MSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:26: Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 41 yds for a TD, (Jack Stone KICK) — MSU win probability +2.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:20: Sean Tyler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK) — WMU win probability +6.9 pts (now 12%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:28: Jalen Berger run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Stone KICK) — MSU win probability +4.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:07: Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 43 yds for a TD, (Jack Stone KICK) — MSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6WMU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 13:29MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:19WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:28MSU 4th & 10 at WMU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:31WMU 4th & 5 at MSU 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:16WMU 4th & 17 at WMU 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:10WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:36MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 49, up 18
    Close callPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:07WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 40, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:22WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:56WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 42, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:29MSU 4th & 11 at WMU 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:49WMU 4th & 20 at MSU 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−2.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:47MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 30, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:16WMU 4th & 9 at WMU 47, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:28MSU 4th & 1 at WMU 1, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    89.6%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−7.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:13WMU 4th & 11 at WMU 43, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:33WMU 4th & 11 at WMU 24, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:37MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55MSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:26MSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:20WMU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:28MSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:07MSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2193% → 93%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tyler HuntSimilar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.4%
Jalen Berger run for 7 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-3
93.3%
Daniel Barker run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
93.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 67 yds, downed at the WMich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:047% → 7%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
93.1%
Sean Tyler run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 2Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 12
OWN 2
0
93.0%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Corey Crooms, broken up by Chester KimbroughSimilar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 12
OWN 2
-1
93.0%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Dylan Deatherage) to the WMich 1Similar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 13
OWN 1
+3
93.0%
Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the WMich 4Similar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 10
OWN 4
0
92.9%
Nick Mihalic punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the WMich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4593% → 93%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
92.9%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the WMich 46Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
92.8%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
92.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
92.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:527% → 9%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
92.6%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 12 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
92.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+21
92.2%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Joshua Burgett for 21 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
92.0%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Kaevion Mack for 9 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 1
OPP 32
0
91.8%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Kaevion MackSimilar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+2
91.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
91.5%
Salopek, Jack rush for no gain to the MICHIGANST30, PENALTY MICHIGANST personal foul (Speed, Ameer) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WESTMICH.Similar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
91.3%
Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
91.0%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the MchSt 10Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
90.9%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q1 6:31
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
90.9%
Palmer Domschke 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4891% → 92%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
90.9%
Jalen Berger run for 14 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
90.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 8 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+5
90.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 5 yds to the WMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
90.7%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
90.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+44
91.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Germie Bernard for 44 yds for a TD, (Jack Stone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 2:139% → 9%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
91.4%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Sean Tyler for a loss of 9 yards to the WMich 16Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+7
91.3%
Sean Tyler run for 7 yds to the WMich 23Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
91.3%
Jack Salopek sacked by Aaron Brule for a loss of 5 yards to the WMich 18Similar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+18
91.1%
Nick Mihalic punt for 45 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 18 yds to the WMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:1591% → 92%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
91.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
90.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 6 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q1 1:26
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+4
90.8%
Daniel Barker run for 4 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
90.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 7 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+11
90.8%
Jarek Broussard run for 11 yds to the WMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
90.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the WMich 13Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
92.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Daniel Barker for 13 yds for a TD, (Jack Stone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:318% → 8%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
91.9%
Jack Salopek sacked by Khris Bogle for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 19Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+1
91.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the WMich 20Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
92.1%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Jehlani Galloway, broken up by Angelo GroseSimilar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
92.1%
Nick Mihalic punt for 30 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 50 yds · 0:3693% → 95%
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
50
+9
92.5%
Jalen Berger run for 9 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+41
94.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 41 yds for a TD, (Jack Stone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10FUMBLE
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:346% → 6%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
94.2%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 1 yd to the WMich 16Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
94.3%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to La'Darius Jefferson, broken up by Angelo GroseSimilar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+61
94.3%
Jack Salopek run for 61 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
93.6%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 1 yd to the MchSt 22Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+14
93.6%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Blake Bosma for 14 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
93.6%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the MchSt 6Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
93.6%
Jack Salopek run for 3 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-10
93.6%
Abdus-Salaam, Zahir rush for 1 yard to the MICHIGANST2, PENALTY WESTMICH holding (Muetterties, Matt) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+3
93.8%
Jack Salopek sacked by Jacoby Windmon for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 19 Jack Salopek fumbled, forced by Jacoby Windmon, recovered by MchSt Chester Kimbrough , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:5895% → 95%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
94.7%
Jalen Berger run for 13 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
94.7%
Payton Thorne run for 13 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
94.8%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
94.8%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Maliq Carr, broken up by Ryan KilburgSimilar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
94.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 6
OWN 49
+10
94.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 43 yds , Zahir Abdus-Salaam returns for 10 yds to the MICHIGANST 41 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Kendell Brooks) to the WMich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12FUMBLE
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:096% → 7%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
93.9%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 5 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+2
93.8%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
93.9%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+5
93.9%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Sean Tyler for 5 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-6
93.7%
Sean Tyler run for a loss of 6 yards to the WMich 39Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+17
94.4%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 17 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
93.4%
Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the MchSt 39 Sean Tyler fumbled, forced by Kendell Brooks, recovered by MchSt Simeon BarrowSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13INT
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:2495% → 95%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
95.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 4 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+26
95.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 26 yds to the WMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
95.2%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the WMich 29Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+3
95.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the WMich 26Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 5
OPP 26
-2
95.3%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Keni-H Lovely return for 2 yds to the WMich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
94.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the WMich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:296% → 5%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
94.5%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q3 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+9
94.7%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 9 yds to the WMich 26Similar
Q3 14:07
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
94.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the WMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
94.4%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to La'Darius JeffersonSimilar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
94.6%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to La'Darius JeffersonSimilar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
94.7%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
94.7%
Nick Mihalic punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:1396% → 96%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
95.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 10 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
96.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
96.1%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+15
96.2%
Thorne, Payton pass pass intercepted by Ware, Delano at the WESTMICH26, Ware, Delano return 0 yards to the WESTMICH26, PENALTY WESTMICH pass interference (Ware, Delano) 15 yards to the WESTMICH39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
96.4%
Jalen Berger run for 6 yds to the WMich 33 Jalen Berger fumbled, forced by Braden Fiske, recovered by WMich Aaron WoffordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 3:346% → 12%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
94.4%
Jack Salopek pass complete to A.J. Abbott for 8 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 2
OWN 41
0
94.2%
Sean Tyler run for no gain to the WMich 41Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+1
94.3%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 1 yd to the WMich 42Similar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+3
95.2%
Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
95.2%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Blake Bosma for 6 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+45
95.0%
Sean Tyler run for 45 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
88.1%
Sean Tyler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18MISSED FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:3891% → 91%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
91.3%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+23
91.5%
Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (DaShon Bussell) to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
91.9%
Kim, Noah pass incomplete to Reed, Jayden, PENALTY WESTMICH pass interference (Lovely, Keni-H) 15 yards to the WESTMICH26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
91.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 6 yds to the WMich 20Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 4
OPP 20
-7
91.8%
Payton Thorne sacked by Andre Carter and Warren Dabney for a loss of 7 yards to the WMich 27Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 11
OPP 27
0
91.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q3 5:29
4TH & 11
OPP 27
+44
90.8%
Jack Stone 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 19FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 4:3210% → 10%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
89.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 10 yds to the WMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
89.8%
Jack Salopek pass complete to A.J. Abbott for 12 yds to the WMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
89.0%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 22 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
87.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
88.5%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Jehlani Galloway, broken up by Charles BrantleySimilar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+11
89.6%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 11 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
88.4%
Salopek, Jack pass complete to Crooms, Corey for 15 yards to the MICHIGANST0, PENALTY WESTMICH ineligible downfield on pass (Gideon, Jacob) 5 yards to the MICHIGANST20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 15
OPP 20
-5
88.8%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+1
88.9%
Jack Salopek run for 1 yd to the MchSt 24Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 19
OPP 24
+1
88.9%
Jack Salopek pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for 1 yd to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 18
OPP 23
-2
90.1%
Jack Salopek sacked by Jacoby Windmon for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 0:49
4TH & 20
OPP 25
+42
90.0%
Palmer Domschke 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5091% → 89%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
90.6%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 0:09
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
90.6%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
90.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen BergerSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
89.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 70 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:2311% → 10%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
89.3%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
89.3%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+12
90.1%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 12 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
88.7%
Sean Tyler run for 6 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 4
OWN 40
-6
87.5%
Jack Salopek sacked by Jacoby Windmon and Chester Kimbrough for a loss of 6 yards to the WMich 34Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+12
89.7%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 12 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
87.3%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Blake Bosma for 5 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
86.5%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Jehlani GallowaySimilar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-4
86.8%
Sean Tyler run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 47Similar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
89.6%
Nick Mihalic punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 91 yds · 3:3791% → 97%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
90.9%
Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+26
91.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 26 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
92.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Daniel Barker, broken up by Zaire BarnesSimilar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+50
92.0%
Jalen Berger run for 50 yds to the WMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
92.4%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the WMich 5Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
93.0%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the WMich 2Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
92.9%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the WMich 1Similar
Q4 6:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.2%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Stone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:094% → 3%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
96.5%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 19 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
96.1%
Jack Salopek run for no gain to the WMich 44Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
96.2%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Blake Bosma for 5 yds to the WMich 49Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-6
96.3%
Jack Salopek sacked by Jacoby Windmon and Chester Kimbrough for a loss of 6 yards to the WMich 43Similar
Q4 4:13
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
97.4%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to A.J. Abbott, broken up by Chester KimbroughSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24TD
1 play · 43 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
99.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 43 yds for a TD, (Jack Stone KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:301% → 1%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Sean TylerSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.5%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Blake Bosma for 5 yds to the WMich 30Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-6
99.5%
Jack Salopek sacked by Jacoby Windmon for a loss of 6 yards to the WMich 24Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+3
99.5%
Nick Mihalic punt for 46 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 3 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
99.5%
Jarek Broussard run for 12 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.6%
Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
99.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 9 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
99.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the WMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:20
Sean Tyler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK)
-6.9
TD · Q4 6:28
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Stone KICK)
+4.3
TD · Q2 12:26
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 41 yds for a TD, (Jack Stone KICK)
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com