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TLSA

Tulsa 37 at Houston 30

HOU
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:52 · Laine Wilkins punt for 50 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for no gain to the Tulsa 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Pregame prior+9.7Home team on offense+0.3Garbage-time factor−1.3Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:57: Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 13 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +7.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:23: Braylon Braxton run for 37 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +9.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:00: Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 52 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +12.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:13: Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 25 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +30.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:52: Kyle Ramsey 23 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +10.3 pts (now 20%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10TLSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 14:55HOU 4th & 1 at TLSA 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    80.9%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:50HOU 4th & 8 at TLSA 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    79.3%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:18TLSA 4th & 22 at TLSA 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:34TLSA 4th & 4 at HOU 11, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.6%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:40TLSA 4th & 12 at HOU 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:10HOU 4th & 15 at TLSA 25, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    77.8%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:58TLSA 4th & 1 at HOU 1, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    15.4%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−4.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:23TLSA 4th & 2 at HOU 37, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.2%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    16.3%
    40% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:20HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−1.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:06TLSA 4th & 15 at TLSA 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−3.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:42HOU 4th & 3 at TLSA 3, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.5%−2.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−13.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:56TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−2.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:10HOU 4th & 6 at TLSA 21, tied
    Close callWent for it · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.3%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    66.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−9.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:00TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−1.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:52HOU 4th & 21 at HOU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−7.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:14TLSA 4th & 19 at TLSA 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−6.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:33HOU 4th & 9 at HOU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−4.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:52HOU 4th & 11 at HOU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−2.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:51TLSA 4th & 6 at HOU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    80.1%−5.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:52HOU 4th & 5 at TLSA 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−4.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:14HOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:58TLSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:57HOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:23TLSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:00TLSA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:13TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1MISSED FG
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0585% → 83%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
84.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 18 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
84.5%
Clayton Tune run for 1 yd to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
84.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+30
84.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 30 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
84.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 1 yd to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 35
-6
84.5%
Clayton Tune sacked by Owen Ostroski for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 15
OPP 41
+14
84.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 14 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 14:55
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+15
84.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 15 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
84.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 2 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
84.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
84.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
83.2%
Kyle Ramsey 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:3217% → 16%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
82.9%
Deneric Prince run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
82.9%
Deneric Prince run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
82.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 2 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
82.9%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-14
83.0%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Garrison Vaughn for a loss of 14 yards to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q1 7:18
4TH & 22
OWN 19
+68
84.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 49 yds , Nathaniel Dell returns for 68 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:3816% → 18%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
83.8%
Braylon Braxton run for no gain to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
83.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
84.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offsides ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
83.1%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+12
83.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 12 yds to the Houst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
83.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 6 yds to the Houst 11Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 4
OPP 11
0
83.1%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 4
OPP 11
0
83.3%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+29
81.9%
Zack Long 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 3:1582% → 85%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
82.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
82.1%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+53
81.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for 53 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
82.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 15
OPP 33
-5
82.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 20
OPP 38
+11
82.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 11 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+27
84.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 27 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:3416% → 16%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.1%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
84.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 12 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
83.6%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+38
84.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 38 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
82.8%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
83.0%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+11
83.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 11 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
82.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-2
82.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Malachai Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 17
0
83.4%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 12
OPP 17
+35
83.8%
Zack Long 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 4:2383% → 84%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
83.2%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+11
83.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 11 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
83.3%
Brandon Campbell run for 22 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
84.1%
Brandon Campbell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+15
83.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 15 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
84.2%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+14
84.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 14 yds fumbled, forced by Tyree Carlisle, recovered by Houst Matthew Golden for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
84.1%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-5
84.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 15
OPP 25
0
83.9%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 15
OPP 25
0
83.4%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+42
84.3%
Kyle Ramsey 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 4:0516% → 22%
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
84.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+14
84.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Steven Anderson for 14 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
83.9%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+21
84.1%
Steven Anderson run for 21 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
83.1%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
83.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 5 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q2 8:03
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+25
83.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 25 yds to the Houst 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
82.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the Houst 3Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
82.9%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the Houst 8Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
82.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 6 yds to the Houst 2Similar
Q2 4:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
85.2%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the Houst 1Similar
Q2 3:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0179% → 88%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.3%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+44
79.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 44 yds to the Tulsa 31 Ta'Zhawn Henry fumbled, recovered by Houst for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-4
81.4%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 14
OPP 35
+22
80.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 22 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
88.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 13 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 1:2813% → 23%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
86.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
86.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Deneric Prince for 1 yd to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
86.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+16
86.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 16 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
85.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
85.6%
TULSA Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on FARNIOK, Will ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+8
86.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Deneric Prince for 8 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+37
76.7%
Braylon Braxton run for 37 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10END OF HALF
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:1078% → 81%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
78.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 10 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
80.3%
Clayton Tune run for 17 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
80.7%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0023% → 37%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.3%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
77.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 7 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
77.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Malachai Jones for 3 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
76.8%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+9
75.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 9 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
63.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 52 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:3367% → 63%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
66.6%
Clayton Tune run for 3 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+7
66.7%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 7 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
67.6%
Clayton Tune run for 6 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-4
69.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
66.4%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
63.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 46 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for no gain to the Tulsa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1436% → 35%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
64.1%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 12
OWN 11
0
64.4%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 12
OWN 11
-3
65.5%
Braylon Braxton sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 15
OWN 8
0
66.8%
PENALTY HOU Unnecessary Roughness on VAUGHN, Garrison TLS Unnecessary Roughness on BAAH, Chester , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 15
OWN 8
0
64.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jayce Rogers at the Tulsa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14FG
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:2468% → 71%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
67.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 7 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+26
67.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 26 yds to the Tulsa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
68.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 10 yds to the Tulsa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
68.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
68.8%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
67.2%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
71.0%
Kyle Ramsey 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4633% → 31%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.7%
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
66.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
67.9%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:56
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
68.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nathaniel Dell at the Houst 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16INT
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:4670% → 69%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
69.7%
Brandon Campbell run for 12 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
72.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 15
OWN 40
0
70.0%
Brandon Campbell run for no gain to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+15
69.8%
TULSA Penalty, Targeting on SAWYER, Grant enforced (Grant Sawyer) to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
73.9%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
73.8%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+4
72.3%
Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 6
OPP 21
0
69.0%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1036% → 34%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
64.2%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
64.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Deneric Prince for 3 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
65.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-5
65.9%
TULSA Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
65.8%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Nathaniel Dell at the Houst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:0867% → 63%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
67.0%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
67.3%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-14
65.2%
Clayton Tune sacked by Owen Ostroski for a loss of 14 yards to the Houst 21Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 21
OWN 21
0
62.8%
Laine Wilkins punt for 50 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for no gain to the Tulsa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:3838% → 37%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
61.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+17
61.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 17 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
58.0%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-1
58.8%
Steven Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 11
OWN 48
-8
61.2%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Atlias Bell and Latrell Bankston for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 19
OWN 40
0
63.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 47 yds , Nathaniel Dell returns for no gain to the Houst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4164% → 60%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
64.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 11Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+3
63.9%
Clayton Tune run for 3 yds to the Houst 14Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
62.0%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:33
4TH & 9
OWN 14
+12
59.9%
Laine Wilkins punt for 48 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:2046% → 78%
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
50
+2
54.0%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+7
54.1%
Braylon Braxton run for 7 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+16
53.9%
Deneric Prince run for 16 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
51.9%
Braylon Braxton run for no gain to the Houst 25Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
52.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+25
21.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 25 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:1531% → 23%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
31.2%
Clayton Tune run for 17 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
32.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Houst 34Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-10
31.9%
TUNE, Clayton scrambles to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the HOU36 (TERRY, Jon-Michael). PENALTY HOU Holding on ROBINSON, Lance enforced 10 yards from the HOU34 to the HOU24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 20
OWN 24
0
30.9%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 20
OWN 24
+9
29.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Brandon Campbell for 9 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
22.8%
Laine Wilkins punt for 12 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:0183% → 92%
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
16.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for no gain to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+21
16.6%
Braylon Braxton run for 21 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
16.0%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the Houst 23Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
16.0%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the Houst 23Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+3
10.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Nick Rempert for 3 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+38
8.5%
Zack Long 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24FG
8 plays · 69 yds · 1:597% → 20%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
6.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 9 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
7.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 7 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
8.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 15 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+33
8.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 33 yds to the Tulsa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
11.0%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
11.0%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
9.8%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
20.1%
Kyle Ramsey 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4595% → 96%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
4.8%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+5
4.8%
Deneric Prince run for 5 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
4.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by BRAXTON, Braylon at HOU42 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:13
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 25 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)
-30.8
TD · Q3 13:00
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 52 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)
-12.2
FG · Q4 0:52
Kyle Ramsey 23 yd FG GOOD
+10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com