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MEM

Memphis 31 at SMU 34

SMU
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:13 · Ryan Bujcevski punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+23.5+11.80−11.8−23.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 164Home team on offense+15.6Pregame prior+0.4Garbage-time factor+10.6Score differential+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.3Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:15: Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +13.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:15: Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +13.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:00: Gabriel Rogers run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard PAT BLOCKED) — MEM win probability +9.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 13:11: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 24 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +17.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:36: Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 7 yds for a TD SMU Penalty, Offsides ( Yards) declined, (Seth Henigan pass to Gabriel Rogers for Two-Point Conversion) — MEM win probability +28.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 7:07SMU 4th & 13 at SMU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:01MEM 4th & 9 at SMU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    40.5%−2.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:01SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.8%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:09SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 9, down 7
    Close callPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:42MEM 4th & 6 at SMU 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    49.3%−1.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:15SMU 4th & 2 at MEM 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    47.8%−1.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−7.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00MEM 4th & 4 at SMU 24, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.3%−0.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−7.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:14MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:52SMU 4th & 9 at MEM 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−9.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:45MEM 4th & 21 at MEM 29, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−3.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:13SMU 4th & 6 at MEM 6, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−5.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:13SMU 4th & 15 at MEM 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−3.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:13MEM 4th & 10 at SMU 43, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.0%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    21.6%
    28% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−5.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:33MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:47SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:51MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:15SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:15SMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:00MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:11SMU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:36MEM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    12.7%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:2740% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
60.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 8 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
60.3%
Asa Martin run for 9 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
60.3%
Seth Henigan run for 7 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+11
60.3%
Asa Martin run for 11 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
60.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
60.3%
Jevyon Ducker run for 6 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+5
60.3%
Jevyon Ducker run for 5 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
60.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 7 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+3
60.3%
Jevyon Ducker run for 3 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
60.3%
Jevyon Ducker run for 3 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+4
60.3%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+7
60.3%
Sutton Smith run for 7 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
56.8%
Sutton Smith run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2658% → 57%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
57.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 5 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
58.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 7 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
58.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-3
58.2%
Tyler Lavine run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 13
OWN 44
0
57.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
56.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 60 yds · 4:0643% → 45%
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+39
56.9%
Jevyon Ducker run for 39 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
56.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Jevyon Ducker for 2 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
56.1%
Asa Martin run for 3 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+15
56.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 15 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
56.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 4 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-3
56.0%
Asa Martin run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
56.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+43
54.8%
Chris Howard 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:1456% → 62%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.5%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
55.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 6 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 3:01
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
55.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
55.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 5 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
56.5%
Tanner Mordecai run for 4 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
56.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
56.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 6 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
57.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+5
56.8%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the right incomplete intended for RICE, Rashee thrown to the MEM29. PENALTY MEM Offsides on MURRAY, Tyler enforced 5 yards from the MEM46 to the MEM41 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
55.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 7 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+2
56.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+27
55.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 27 yds to the Memph 5 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive Holding (Davion Ross) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
56.3%
Tanner Mordecai run for 1 yd to the Memph 4Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
62.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 4 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:5041% → 51%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
58.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 12 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+36
57.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 36 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
56.8%
Seth Henigan run for 1 yd to the SMU 16Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+8
56.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 8 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+5
57.4%
Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the SMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
49.4%
Asa Martin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3752% → 49%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
51.8%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the SMU 3Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
51.8%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the SMU 3Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+6
51.0%
Tanner Mordecai run for 6 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q2 9:09
4TH & 2
OWN 9
0
49.4%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2752% → 52%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
50
0
48.4%
Sutton Smith run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 10
50
+4
48.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 4 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
48.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
47.6%
Joe Doyle punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8TD
20 plays · 91 yds · 6:2749% → 64%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
48.8%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for no gain to the SMU 9Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
47.0%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+39
46.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Rashee Rice for 39 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
50.3%
LAVINE, Tyler rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the SMU49 (MURRAY, Tyler;RUBIN, Greg). PENALTY SMU Holding on HICKMAN, Branson enforced 10 yards from the SMU48 to the SMU38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+10
48.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Rashee Rice for 10 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
49.9%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Rashee Rice for 5 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+16
50.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 16 yds to the Memph 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
51.9%
Kevin Jennings run for 4 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+3
51.9%
TJ McDaniel run for 3 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 3:14
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+3
49.4%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 3 yds to the Memph 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
50.7%
Kevin Jennings run for 3 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+6
50.1%
Tyler Lavine run for 6 yds to the Memph 12Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 1
OPP 12
-1
48.8%
Tyler Lavine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 13Similar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+2
47.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the Memph 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
50.1%
Kevin Jennings pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+10
50.1%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 10 yds to the Memph 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 1:0844% → 51%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
55.9%
Seth Henigan run for 7 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+23
54.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 23 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
51.8%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the right incomplete intended for DUCKER, Jevyon thrown to the SMU26. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on PHILLIPS, JR., Jimmy enforced 15 yards to the SMU30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
50.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
50.4%
Seth Henigan run for 1 yd to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+5
51.5%
Jevyon Ducker run for 5 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+42
48.6%
Chris Howard 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4553% → 72%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
53.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 8 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
55.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
54.4%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the left complete for 33 yards to KERLEY, Jordan caught at the MEM33 and advanced to the MEM31 (ROSS, Davion). PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on KERLEY, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the SMU21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 21
+7
53.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 7 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+16
52.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 16 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+10
55.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 10 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
57.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 2 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+1
57.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the Memph 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+40
56.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 40 yds to the Memph 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
58.2%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the Memph 3Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
71.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0134% → 31%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
65.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
66.2%
Sutton Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
67.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+49
68.6%
Joe Doyle punt for 52 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 49 yds to the Memph 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12FG
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:2271% → 77%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
71.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+4
72.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 4 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+6
70.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 6 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
72.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 7 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+4
72.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the Memph 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
72.0%
Tyler Lavine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 12Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 11
OPP 12
-4
72.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 16Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 15
OPP 16
+6
69.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 6 yds to the Memph 10Similar
Q3 5:52
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+27
77.2%
Collin Rogers 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 5:5228% → 43%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
72.1%
Asa Martin run for 4 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-2
70.4%
Asa Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+10
72.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 10 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
70.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
71.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 8 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+6
69.9%
Asa Martin run for 6 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
69.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+13
69.5%
Jevyon Ducker run for 13 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
67.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 16 yds to the SMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
67.3%
Jevyon Ducker run for 2 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
67.3%
Jevyon Ducker run for 3 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
57.5%
Gabriel Rogers run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:2968% → 87%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
68.0%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 23 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
69.3%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the Memph 26Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
69.2%
Tanner Mordecai run for 2 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+24
86.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 24 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:2617% → 14%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
83.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 15 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
82.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 3 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
81.3%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-17
81.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Seth Henigan) to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 21
OWN 29
0
86.1%
Joe Doyle punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:3287% → 93%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
87.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
86.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+11
85.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 11 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
87.7%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+8
87.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 8 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
88.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 6 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+2
88.3%
Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+31
87.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 31 yds to the Memph 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
88.4%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the Memph 9Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
88.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the Memph 6Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
87.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
92.7%
Collin Rogers 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:309% → 40%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
90.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 2 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
90.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+15
91.9%
SMU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Nick Roberts) to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
89.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
89.7%
Seth Henigan run for 9 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
88.9%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
89.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Jevyon Ducker for 4 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+6
88.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Jevyon Ducker for 6 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
88.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 4 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
87.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+19
88.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 19 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
60.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 7 yds for a TD SMU Penalty, Offsides ( Yards) declined, (Seth Henigan pass to Gabriel Rogers for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · -5 yds · 0:1788% → 87%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
87.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for no gain to the Memph 44Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
87.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-5
86.3%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Marcus Bryant) to the Memph 49Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+5
85.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 10
OPP 44
-5
85.9%
SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 49Similar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
86.5%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19INT
14 plays · 76 yds · 2:1121% → 32%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
79.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+29
79.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 29 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
75.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 7 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+6
72.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 6 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
72.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
73.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
75.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 10
OPP 43
+24
77.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 24 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
68.3%
Jevyon Ducker run for 2 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+5
68.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 5 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+3
70.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 3 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
68.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
68.0%
Seth Henigan pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.8%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SMU at SMU19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:36
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 7 yds for a TD SMU Penalty, Offsides ( Yards) declined, (Seth Henigan pass to Gabriel Rogers for Two-Point Conversion)
-28.8
TD · Q4 13:11
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 24 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)
+17.6
TD · Q2 1:15
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)
+13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com