Try the model
TULN

Tulane 27 at Cincinnati 24

CIN
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2022 · Nippert Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreTULN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG—CIN 43.2%Valentino Ambrosio 34 Yd Field GoalAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q1 5:17
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:17 · Valentino Ambrosio 34 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Home team on offense−1.2Pregame prior−7.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:41: Charles McClelland 35 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick) — CIN win probability +13.5 pts (now 53%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:59: Tyjae Spears 2 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick) — TULN win probability +10.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:42: Ryan Montgomery 8 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick) — CIN win probability +22.9 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 6:27: Ryan Montgomery 15 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick) — CIN win probability +36.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:10: Duece Watts 30 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Valentino Ambrosio Kick) — TULN win probability +46.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:23CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:52TULN 4th & 6 at CIN 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    50.1%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:07CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:17TULN 4th & 2 at CIN 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.8%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:57CIN 4th & 3 at TULN 10, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.8%−0.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−3.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:35TULN 4th & 10 at TULN 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:23CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:16TULN 4th & 11 at CIN 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    47.6%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:04TULN 4th & 12 at TULN 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−2.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:28CIN 4th & 1 at TULN 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    23.4%−3.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    15.8%−10.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:14TULN 4th & 2 at CIN 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    56.7%−5.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−5.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:36CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.5%−5.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:21CIN 4th & 1 at TULN 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−1.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−18.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:04CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:36TULN 4th & 6 at CIN 41, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.2 ptsPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    82.7%−2.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%−3.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:58CIN 4th & 15 at CIN 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TULN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 4:58TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:41CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:59TULN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:42CIN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:27CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:10TULN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3642% → 42%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
41.6%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
41.7%
Evan Prater run for 8 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
41.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Lorenz Metz) to the Cincy 29Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
41.9%
Evan Prater run for 5 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
42.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 49 yds , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for no gain to the Tulan 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:3158% → 57%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
42.1%
Tyjae Spears run for 6 yds to the Tulan 23Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 4
OWN 23
-5
42.2%
TULANE Penalty, False Start (Rashad Green) to the Tulan 18Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+6
42.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyjae Spears for 6 yds to the Tulan 24Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 3
OWN 24
-5
42.5%
TULANE Penalty, False Start (Joey Claybrook) to the Tulan 19Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+4
42.8%
Tyjae Spears run for 4 yds to the Tulan 23Similar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 4
OWN 23
+15
43.0%
Glover, Casey punt 61 yards to the CINCINNATI16, downed, PENALTY CINCINNATI roughing the kicker (Smith, Armorion) 15 yards to the TULANE38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULANE.Similar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
42.5%
Tyjae Spears run for 8 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+5
42.5%
Tyjae Spears run for 5 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
42.6%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Shae WyattSimilar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
42.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 4 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
42.8%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Duece WattsSimilar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
43.2%
Casey Glover punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4543% → 43%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
43.4%
Evan Prater pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 5 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
43.5%
Evan Prater pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 5
OWN 17
0
43.2%
Evan Prater pass incomplete to Tre TuckerSimilar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
43.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jha'Quan Jackson at the Tulan 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:5057% → 57%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
42.9%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+12
43.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 12 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
42.8%
Tyjae Spears run for 7 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+10
42.6%
Tyjae Spears run for 10 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
42.7%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
42.8%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Tyrick JamesSimilar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+5
43.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 5 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+34
43.2%
Valentino Ambrosio 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 5:1943% → 47%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 6 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
43.7%
Ryan Montgomery run for 8 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
43.7%
Evan Prater pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 4 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
44.4%
Evan Prater pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 5 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
44.3%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
50
+13
44.8%
Evan Prater pass complete to Nick Mardner for 13 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
44.9%
Evan Prater run for no gain to the Tulan 37Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
45.0%
Evan Prater pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+20
44.6%
Evan Prater pass complete to Will Pauling for 20 yds to the Tulan 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
45.7%
Ryan Montgomery run for 6 yds to the Tulan 11Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 4
OPP 11
0
45.9%
Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the Tulan 11Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+1
45.5%
Evan Prater run for 1 yd to the Tulan 10Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+28
46.7%
Ryan Coe 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2155% → 54%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
44.8%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Shae WyattSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
45.0%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Tyjae SpearsSimilar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
45.7%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Duece WattsSimilar
Q2 14:35
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
46.1%
Casey Glover punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:1246% → 46%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
46.3%
Ryan Montgomery run for 13 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
46.9%
Evan Prater run for 4 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
47.9%
Evan Prater pass incomplete to Tre TuckerSimilar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
46.7%
Evan Prater pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q2 13:23
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+14
46.1%
Mason Fletcher punt for 45 yds , Lawrence Keys III returns for 14 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8TD
15 plays · 71 yds · 8:2555% → 66%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
45.3%
Michael Pratt run for 6 yds to the Tulan 35Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+4
44.7%
Tyjae Spears run for 4 yds to the Tulan 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
44.8%
Tyjae Spears run for 2 yds to the Tulan 41Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
44.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 5 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+4
44.7%
Lawrence Keys III run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
50
+4
44.2%
Tyjae Spears run for 4 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+11
44.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the Cincy 41 lat. to Tyjae Spears for 11 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
44.1%
Michael Pratt run for 2 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
44.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 2 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+6
43.2%
Tyjae Spears run for 6 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+7
43.2%
Tyjae Spears run for 7 yds to the Cincy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
42.4%
Michael Pratt run for 4 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
42.4%
Tyjae Spears run for 5 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+4
43.3%
Tyjae Spears run for 4 yds to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
33.7%
Tyjae Spears 11 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1637% → 53%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
37.0%
Evan Prater run for 7 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
38.3%
Evan Prater pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+18
36.8%
Evan Prater run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
50
+6
39.6%
Ryan Montgomery run for 6 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+5
39.9%
Evan Prater pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 5 yds to the Tulan 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
39.8%
Evan Prater run for 4 yds to the Tulan 35Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+35
53.3%
Charles McClelland 35 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 2:2454% → 58%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
46.2%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the Tulan 28Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
46.0%
Tyjae Spears run for 14 yds to the Tulan 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+29
44.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 29 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
41.6%
Michael Pratt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 11
OPP 30
0
42.0%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Duece WattsSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 11
OPP 30
0
43.9%
Tyjae Spears run for no gain to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+47
41.9%
Valentino Ambrosio 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
45.0%
Charles McClelland run for 6 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:5058% → 56%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
42.1%
Michael Pratt run for 14 yds to the Tulan 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
41.8%
Tyjae Spears run for 8 yds to the Tulan 38Similar
Q3 14:01
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+8
40.1%
Tyjae Spears run for 8 yds to the Tulan 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
40.0%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Duece WattsSimilar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
40.3%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the Tulan 49Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 7
OWN 49
-5
40.6%
Michael Pratt sacked by Eric Phillips for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 44Similar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
44.4%
Casey Glover punt for 42 yds, downed at the Cincy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:4643% → 43%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
43.0%
Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+8
43.1%
Evan Prater pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 8 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
43.6%
Charles McClelland run for 6 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
45.5%
Evan Prater pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
42.8%
Evan Prater pass intercepted Dorian Williams return for no gain to the Cincy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:1960% → 76%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
39.8%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+24
38.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 24 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
36.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 14Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+5
37.3%
Michael Pratt run for 5 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+3
38.2%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+4
40.4%
Pratt, Michael pass incomplete to Wallace, Will, PENALTY CINCINNATI pass interference (Threats, Bryon) 4 yards to the CINCINNATI2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULANE.Similar
Q3 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
23.7%
Tyjae Spears 2 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:1626% → 50%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
26.2%
Charles McClelland run for no gain to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
24.4%
Evan Prater run for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
23.4%
Evan Prater pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 10 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
25.3%
Evan Prater run for 7 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
26.1%
Evan Prater run for 4 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
26.2%
Evan Prater pass incomplete to Jadon ThompsonSimilar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+17
25.7%
Ryan Montgomery run for 17 yds to the Tulan 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
26.7%
Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Tulan 35Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+4
27.7%
Evan Prater run for 4 yds to the Tulan 31Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+4
25.9%
Evan Prater run for 4 yds to the Tulan 27Similar
Q3 2:28
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+1
24.6%
Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Tulan 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
27.2%
Evan Prater pass complete to Tyler Scott for 11 yds to the Tulan 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
26.6%
Evan Prater run for 7 yds to the Tulan 8Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
49.5%
Ryan Montgomery 8 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:4663% → 65%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
37.5%
Michael Pratt run for 4 yds to the Tulan 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+6
36.7%
Tyjae Spears run for 6 yds to the Tulan 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
35.6%
Tyjae Spears run for 2 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+10
35.6%
Lawrence Keys III run for 10 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
34.3%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
34.5%
Tyjae Spears run for 5 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 2
OPP 38
0
31.9%
Tyjae Spears run for no gain to the Cincy 38Similar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+1
34.8%
Michael Pratt run for 1 yd to the Cincy 37 TULANE Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Prince Pines) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17TD
13 plays · 63 yds · 4:4741% → 82%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
40.5%
Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Cincy 38Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+4
40.8%
Ryan Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+4
39.7%
Evan Prater run for 4 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+3
39.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
43.0%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 9
50
0
43.1%
Evan Prater pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 9
50
+21
39.4%
Evan Prater pass complete to Will Pauling for 21 yds to the Tulan 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
46.2%
Evan Prater pass incomplete to Tre TuckerSimilar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+9
45.9%
Evan Prater run for 9 yds to the Tulan 20Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
43.4%
Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the Tulan 20Similar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+1
40.4%
Evan Prater run for 1 yd to the Tulan 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
45.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 4 yds to the Tulan 15Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+15
81.5%
Ryan Montgomery 15 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1633% → 79%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 8 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
62.7%
Tyjae Spears run for 4 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+33
67.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 33 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
20.8%
Duece Watts 30 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:5934% → 30%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
34.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Gavin Gerhardt) to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 15
OWN 16
0
34.0%
Evan Prater pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+4
33.3%
Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 11
OWN 20
0
31.3%
Evan Prater pass incomplete to Josh WhyleSimilar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 11
OWN 20
-3
29.8%
Mason Fletcher punt for 49 yds , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:2876% → 88%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
23.8%
Tyjae Spears run for 2 yds to the Tulan 30Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+25
22.9%
Tyjae Spears run for 25 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
16.8%
Tyjae Spears run for no gain to the Cincy 45Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
12.2%
Tyjae Spears run for 1 yd to the Cincy 44Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+3
10.9%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
12.3%
Casey Glover punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:3824% → 19%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
24.2%
Evan Prater pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
21.5%
Evan Prater sacked by Keith Cooper Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 15Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
19.2%
Evan Prater pass incomplete to Josh WhyleSimilar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
19.4%
Evan Prater pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:5893% → 95%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
7.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 16
-3
5.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:10
Duece Watts 30 Yd pass from Michael Pratt (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)
-46.2
TD · Q4 6:27
Ryan Montgomery 15 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick)
+36.6
TD · Q3 0:42
Ryan Montgomery 8 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick)
+22.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com