Try the model
ECU

East Carolina 49 at Temple 46

TEM
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+2.9TEM 31.3%Camden Price 21 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 5:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:00 · Camden Price 21 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Pregame prior−21.5Home team on offense+1.0Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:43: Edward Saydee 12 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick) — TEM win probability +17.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 6:01: Keaton Mitchell 2 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad Kick) — ECU win probability +11.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:11: Jordan Smith 38 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Quincy Patterson Pass to David Martin-Robinson for Two-Point Conversion) — TEM win probability +19.5 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 6:19: David Martin-Robinson 15 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Camden Price Kick) — TEM win probability +37.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:11: Jaylen Johnson 38 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Andrew Conrad Kick) — ECU win probability +67.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:06ECU 4th & 1 at TEM 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    71.1%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:29TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:35ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:00TEM 4th & 3 at ECU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.7%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:56TEM 4th & 9 at ECU 46, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    30.7%−1.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:39ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−1.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:34TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  8. Q4 8:19ECU 4th & 6 at TEM 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.2%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    68.1%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−13.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 4:50ECU 4th & 15 at ECU 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:07TEM 4th & 1 at midfield, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.2 ptsPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%−6.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:38TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.9%−4.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 1:51ECU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:20TEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:18ECU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:54TEM Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:24ECU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:22TEM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:35ECU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:43TEM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:01ECU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 4:11TEM Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 6:19TEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:11ECU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5475% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
25.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+7
25.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 7 yds to the Temp 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
25.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Temp 45Similar
Q1 13:06
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
26.1%
Luke Larsen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Amad Anderson Jr. at the Temp 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:3726% → 27%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
26.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 12 yds to the Temp 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
26.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 7 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+15
26.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 15 yds to the Temp 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
26.3%
Edward Saydee run for no gain to the Temp 45Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
26.3%
Edward Saydee run for 2 yds to the Temp 47Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
26.2%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 8
OWN 47
+2
27.4%
Mackenzie Morgan punt for 44 yds , Malik Fleming returns for 2 yds to the ECaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5473% → 72%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
27.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+6
27.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 6 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 4
OWN 17
0
27.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
28.2%
Luke Larsen punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Amad Anderson Jr. at the Temp 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 4:3528% → 31%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
28.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 1 yd to the Temp 42Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+5
28.2%
Edward Saydee run for 5 yds to the Temp 47Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+4
28.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 4 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
28.5%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+11
28.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 11 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
28.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 19 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
28.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 10 yds to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
28.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 8 yds to the ECaro 1Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
28.6%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 2Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
28.4%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 3Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
31.3%
Camden Price 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 3:0969% → 71%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
31.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 7 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
30.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
31.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
30.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+10
30.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 10 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
28.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 49 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:2131% → 36%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
30.8%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+24
30.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 24 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
31.5%
Zae Baines run for 3 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
31.5%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+14
30.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 14 yds to the ECaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
32.3%
Edward Saydee run for 2 yds to the ECaro 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+5
32.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 5 yds to the ECaro 6Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
35.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 6 yds for a TD, (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:5766% → 70%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
34.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 9 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+24
33.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 24 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
33.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 11 yds to the Temp 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
32.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 1 yd to the Temp 25Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+9
32.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 9 yds to the Temp 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
32.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the Temp 15Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+1
32.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Temp 14Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+14
30.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2432% → 42%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
31.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 9 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
33.3%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
32.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 7 yds to the Temp 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
33.4%
Edward Saydee run for 4 yds to the Temp 45Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+15
33.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 15 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
41.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 40 yds for a TD, (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:3631% → 30%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
30.7%
Edward Saydee run for 3 yds to the Temp 24Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+29
30.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 29 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
33.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 49Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-4
31.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Temp 47Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 16
OWN 47
+7
30.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 7 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
30.4%
Mackenzie Morgan punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 86 yds · 1:3270% → 77%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
29.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 6 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+7
29.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 7 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
23.3%
Keaton Mitchell 73 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Andrew Conrad Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 1:5523% → 36%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
23.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 10 yds to the Temp 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
23.3%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
23.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 7 yds to the Temp 39Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
23.6%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+4
22.8%
WARNER, E.J. pass to the right incomplete intended for SMITH, Jordan thrown to the TEM49. PENALTY ECU Pass Interference on JACKSON, Teylor enforced at the spot of the foul for 4 yards to the TEM43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+21
24.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 21 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
24.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 15 yds to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
25.7%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
25.7%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+21
36.0%
Zae Baines 21 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Camden Price Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12MISSED FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 1:1770% → 71%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
30.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
30.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 5
50
+6
29.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 6 yds to the Temp 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
29.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 14 yds to the Temp 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
29.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for no gain to the Temp 30Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+18
29.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 18 yds to the Temp 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
28.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
28.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+29
29.1%
Andrew Conrad 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 2:0433% → 34%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
33.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 4 yds to the Temp 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+5
33.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 5 yds to the Temp 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+3
33.0%
Edward Saydee run for 3 yds to the Temp 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.0%
E.J. Warner pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 20 yds · 1:2171% → 80%
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
29.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the Temp 14Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+6
29.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 6 yds to the Temp 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
29.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
20.4%
Keaton Mitchell 8 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 1:4324% → 40%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
23.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 11 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+29
22.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 29 yds to the ECaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
23.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 2 yds to the ECaro 12Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
40.4%
Edward Saydee 12 Yd Run (Camden Price Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 3:4268% → 83%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
32.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
31.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+20
30.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 20 yds to the Temp 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
29.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 8 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+28
28.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 28 yds to the Temp 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
28.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the Temp 2Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.8%
Keaton Mitchell 2 Yd Run (Andrew Conrad Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:4020% → 41%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
19.7%
Edward Saydee run for 3 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+18
19.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 18 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
21.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 9 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+1
21.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 1 yd to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
41.4%
Jordan Smith 38 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Quincy Patterson Pass to David Martin-Robinson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2867% → 65%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
32.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the ECaro 31Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
33.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 5 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
33.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:39
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
35.2%
Luke Larsen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Amad Anderson Jr. at the Temp 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0536% → 35%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
36.1%
Edward Saydee run for 6 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+8
38.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 8 yds to the Temp 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
38.0%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
37.6%
Edward Saydee run for 2 yds to the Temp 40Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-1
36.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 39Similar
Q3 0:34
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
34.9%
Mackenzie Morgan punt for 50 yds, downed at the ECaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20DOWNS
14 plays · 62 yds · 6:4165% → 72%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
35.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+5
35.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 5 yds to the ECaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
34.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 9 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+11
32.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 11 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
31.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 10 yds to the Temp 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
30.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 1 yd to the Temp 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+3
30.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Temp 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+13
31.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 13 yds to the Temp 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
29.2%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Isaiah Foote) to the Temp 36Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+1
31.4%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the Temp 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 35
0
30.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the Temp 35Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 14
OPP 35
+8
27.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 8 yds to the Temp 27Similar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 6
OPP 27
0
28.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:0036% → 81%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
35.8%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
34.8%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+32
33.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 32 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
41.5%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+6
41.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to D'Wan Mathis for 6 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+17
41.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 17 yds to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
43.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to D'Wan Mathis for 3 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
81.0%
David Martin-Robinson 15 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Camden Price Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:2937% → 28%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
63.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
63.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-7
65.6%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Jordan Magee for a loss of 7 yards to the ECaro 26Similar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
71.9%
Luke Larsen punt for 43 yds, downed at the Temp 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:4383% → 87%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
82.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 10 yds to the Temp 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
84.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 4 yds to the Temp 45Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
87.5%
Edward Saydee run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 1
50
0
88.0%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 1
50
+3
87.2%
Mackenzie Morgan punt for 42 yds , Malik Fleming returns for 3 yds to the ECaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 1:5618% → 91%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
82.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 5 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+10
82.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 10 yds to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
81.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
82.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+22
83.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 22 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
78.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 14 yds to the Temp 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
76.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+38
8.9%
Jaylen Johnson 38 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Andrew Conrad Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3326% → 20%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 5 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
26.8%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
25.5%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
19.7%
E.J. Warner pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
4.8%
[NH] Kneel down by ECU at TEM31 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:11
Jaylen Johnson 38 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Andrew Conrad Kick)
-67.3
TD · Q4 6:19
David Martin-Robinson 15 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Camden Price Kick)
+37.5
TD · Q3 4:11
Jordan Smith 38 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Quincy Patterson Pass to David Martin-Robinson for Two-Point Conversion)
+19.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com