2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field
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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreCIN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:22 · Ryan Coe 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:19: Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 42 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK) — CIN win probability +3.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:54: Ryan Montgomery run for 14 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK) — CIN win probability +3.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:54: Timeout TEMPLE, clock 14:54 — CIN win probability +0.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:22: Ryan Coe 37 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +1.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
- FG · Q4 14:40: Ryan Coe 24 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +2.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 10CIN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 12:20TEM 4th & 16 at TEM 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snapGo for it15.8%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.0%average punt
- Q1 12:20CIN 4th & 1 at TEM 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call84.1%67% to convertField goal83.9%−0.292% to makePunt83.4%−0.6average punt
- Q1 6:59CIN 4th & 1 at TEM 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.6%59% to convertField goal81.3%−0.394% to makePunt80.4%−1.2average punt
- Q1 5:25TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 9, tiedClose callPunted · 19.0% before the snapGo for it19.1%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.0%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:18CIN 4th & 12 at CIN 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snapGo for it79.5%−0.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.8%average punt
- Q1 2:27TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 19, tiedClose callPunted · 20.7% before the snapGo for it20.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.5%−0.4average punt
- Q2 12:49TEM 4th & 23 at TEM 20, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snapGo for it14.3%−1.06% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.3%average punt
- Q2 9:55CIN 4th & 10 at TEM 10, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.6% before the snapGo for it84.8%−0.524% to convertField goalTheir call85.4%88% to makePunt81.4%−4.0average punt
- Q2 8:24TEM 4th & 8 at CIN 25, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.9% before the snapGo for it13.8%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call13.9%66% to makePunt11.5%−2.4average punt
- Q2 7:16CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 24, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snapGo for it84.3%−1.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.4%average punt
- Q2 3:50CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 22, up 14Close callPunted · 85.0% before the snapGo for it84.9%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 2:47TEM 4th & 7 at CIN 40, down 14Close callPunted · 15.2% before the snapGo for it15.2%37% to convertField goal15.0%−0.334% to makePuntTheir call14.9%−0.4average punt
- Q3 11:33CIN 4th & 12 at TEM 47, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snapGo for it86.6%−1.023% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.6%average punt
- Q3 10:47TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 15, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snapGo for it12.7%−0.635% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.2%average punt
- Q3 7:22CIN 4th & 14 at TEM 19, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snapGo for it86.9%−1.617% to convertField goalTheir call88.5%77% to makePunt83.6%−4.9average punt
- Q4 14:40CIN 4th & 6 at TEM 6, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snapGo for it93.4%−0.231% to convertField goalTheir call93.6%91% to makePunt88.9%−4.7average punt
- Q4 14:22TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 49, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 14:22TEM 4th & 10 at CIN 46, down 20Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.3%−0.430% to convertField goal2.7%−0.923% to makePunt3.7%average punt
- Q4 3:21CIN 4th & 3 at TEM 47, up 20Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%−0.2average punt
- Q4 2:33TEM 4th & 12 at TEM 18, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 1:19CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.9%97% to makeGo for two80.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:54CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.7%97% to makeGo for two83.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT6 plays · -10 yds · 2:4015% → 16%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
15.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 11 yds to the Temp 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
15.2%
E.J. Warner run for 14 yds to the Temp 20 E.J. Warner fumbled, recovered by Temp E.J. WarnerSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 24
OWN 20
+2
15.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 2 yds to the Temp 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 22
+6
15.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 6 yds to the Temp 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2DOWNS12 plays · 49 yds · 5:2184% → 81%
TEMDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3419% → 19%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0781% → 79%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5121% → 21%
CINDrive 6TD5 plays · 66 yds · 1:0879% → 83%
TEMDrive 7FUMBLE2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
18.6%
Edward Saydee run for 1 yd to the Temp 26 Edward Saydee fumbled, recovered by Cincy Dontay CorleoneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD4 plays · 26 yds · 0:4483% → 86%
TEMDrive 9PUNT7 plays · -3 yds · 2:0514% → 13%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
13.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 10 yds to the Temp 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-10
13.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hubbard,Darvon rush left for 8 yards gain to the TEM44 (Pace Jr.,Ivan) PENALTY TEM Holding 10 yards from TEM36 to TEM26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 17
OWN 26
+6
13.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Darvon Hubbard for 6 yds to the Temp 20Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 23
OWN 20
+9
12.9%
Mackenzie Morgan punt for 27 yds , Tre Tucker returns for 9 yds to the Temp 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10FG11 plays · 28 yds · 2:5488% → 89%
Q2 12:49
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+15
11.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Nick Mardner for 15 yds to the Temp 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+7
11.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Nick Mardner for 7 yds to the Temp 11Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
12.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Ivan Pace Jr.) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11FG8 plays · 50 yds · 1:3111% → 11%
CINDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0889% → 88%
Q2 7:16
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
11.9%
Mason Fletcher punt for 44 yds , Jose Barbon returns for no gain to the Temp 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13INT4 plays · 27 yds · 1:1711% → 11%
CINDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0988% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 1:0311% → 10%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
10.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 11 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16END OF HALF11 plays · 37 yds · 2:4788% → 86%
Q2 2:47
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+13
11.5%
Evan Prater pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 13 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+18
11.5%
Evan Prater pass complete to Tyler Scott for 18 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
14.5%
Bell,Rory kickoff 58 yards to the CIN07 Tucker,Tre return 11 yards to the CIN18 (Cuascut-Palmer,Corey) PENALTY TEM Offside 5 yards from TEM35 to TEM30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 20 yds · 3:2787% → 87%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
13.4%
Evan Prater pass complete to Josh Whyle for 11 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-7
12.5%
Evan Prater sacked by Layton Jordan for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 11:33
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
12.9%
Mason Fletcher punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jose Barbon at the Temp 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4613% → 13%
Q3 10:47
4TH & 7
OWN 15
+8
12.7%
Mackenzie Morgan punt for 35 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 8 yds to the Temp 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19FG9 plays · 23 yds · 3:2589% → 91%
TEMDrive 20INT9 plays · 52 yds · 2:1310% → 12%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
10.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 14 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+15
11.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Ivan Pace Jr.) to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+19
11.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to D'Wan Mathis for 19 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21FG13 plays · 74 yds · 5:2992% → 97%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
8.5%
Evan Prater pass complete to Tyler Scott for 8 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
8.5%
Evan Prater pass complete to Tre Tucker for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
50
+16
7.8%
Evan Prater pass complete to Josh Whyle for 16 yds to the Temp 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
7.6%
Evan Prater pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 4 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+12
7.3%
Evan Prater pass complete to Tre Tucker for 12 yds to the Temp 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22FUMBLE17 plays · 53 yds · 6:403% → 1%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
1.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 7 yds to the Temp 37Similar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
1.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to D'Wan Mathis for 8 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q4 14:22
4TH & 4
OWN 49
+5
1.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Darvon Hubbard for 5 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+2
1.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 2 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+1
1.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 1 yd to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 14:22
4TH & 10
OPP 46
+11
1.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 11 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+3
1.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 3 yds Zae Baines fumbled, recovered by Cincy Noah PotterSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+3
1.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 3 yds Zae Baines fumbled, recovered by Cincy Noah PotterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 4:3999% → 99%
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
1.3%
Evan Prater pass complete to Will Pauling for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 24PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:480% → 0%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
0.3%
E.J. Warner sacked by Noah Potter for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25END OF GAME6 plays · 20 yds · 2:3399% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:19
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 42 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)
-3.3
TD · Q2 14:54
Ryan Montgomery run for 14 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)
-3
FG · Q4 14:40
Ryan Coe 24 yd FG GOOD
-2.6