2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadUNA aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreUNA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:45 · Sam Contorno punt for 37 yds, downed at the Memph 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:15: Jevyon Ducker run for 6 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — MEM win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:19: Jevyon Ducker run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — MEM win probability +1.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:41: Asa Martin run for 10 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — MEM win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:26: Chris Howard 26 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:48: Xavier Cullens 54 Yd Interception Return (Chris Howard Kick) — MEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UNA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UNA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 12:31MEM 4th & 29 at midfield, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.6%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.8%average punt
- Q1 10:45UNA 4th & 7 at UNA 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q1 3:19UNA 4th & 8 at UNA 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q1 1:45MEM 4th & 12 at midfield, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snapGo for it97.2%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.3%average punt
- Q2 12:19UNA 4th & 6 at UNA 35, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
- Q2 7:31UNA 4th & 8 at UNA 27, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q2 1:52UNA 4th & 5 at UNA 30, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 0:26MEM 4th & 4 at UNA 8, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−<0.142% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%90% to makePunt99.2%−0.4average punt
- Q3 11:13UNA 4th & 8 at UNA 27, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 4:36MEM 4th & 2 at UNA 2, up 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%48% to convertField goal99.8%−0.194% to makePunt99.3%−0.6average punt
- Q3 2:55UNA 4th & 9 at UNA 44, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 15:00MEM 4th & 1 at UNA 43, up 52Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%70% to convertField goal99.7%−0.228% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 9:39UNA 4th & 8 at UNA 38, down 59Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 1:01MEM 4th & 7 at UNA 12, up 59Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−0.133% to convertField goal100.0%86% to makePunt99.6%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 9:29MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:15MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:19MEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:41MEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:48MEM Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:36MEM Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:00MEM Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMEMDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 2:2398% → 98%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+21
98.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 21 yds to the NorAl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
98.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for 14 yds to the NorAl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-2
98.0%
Seth Henigan sacked by Kam'ron Green for a loss of 2 yards to the NorAl 30Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 9
OPP 30
-15
97.8%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the left complete for 30 yards to LEWIS, Eddie caught at the UNA24 and advanced to the UNA0, TOUCHDOWN MEM, score nullified by penalty, clock 12:42 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY MEM Pass Interference on ROGERS, Gabriel enforced 15 yards to the UNA45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 2PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:462% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3TD3 plays · 55 yds · 1:1698% → 98%
UNADrive 4FUMBLE2 plays · 11 yds · 0:533% → 3%
MEMDrive 5TD5 plays · 36 yds · 1:2198% → 98%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
97.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 13 yds to the NorAl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 6PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 3:502% → 3%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
97.6%
Noah Walters pass complete to Corson Swan for 4 yds to the NorAl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 1:3497% → 97%
Q1 3:19
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+18
97.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 18 yds to the NorAl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 8PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 4:263% → 3%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
97.1%
Noah Walters pass complete to Takairee Kenebrew for 9 yds to the NorAl 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
97.0%
NORTH ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Shift Chop Block on POWELL, ShunDerrick (ShunDerrick Powell) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+12
96.8%
Sam Contorno punt for 42 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for 12 yds to the Memph 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9TD8 plays · 65 yds · 3:0097% → 98%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
97.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 17 yds to the NorAl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+21
97.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 21 yds to the NorAl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+14
97.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 14 yds to the NorAl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
97.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 9 yds to the NorAl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 10PUNT RETURN TD4 plays · 2 yds · 1:482% → 1%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.1%
Noah Walters pass complete to ShunDerrick Powell for 1 yd to the NorAl 26Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
98.2%
Noah Walters pass complete to Demarcus Lacey for 1 yd to the NorAl 27Similar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+60
99.3%
Sam Contorno punt for 33 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for 60 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 11INT6 plays · 11 yds · 2:241% → 1%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.3%
Noah Walters sacked by Xavier Cullens for a loss of 5 yards to the NorAl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12TD4 plays · 27 yds · 1:2699% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 13PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Q2 2:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
99.6%
Noah Walters pass complete to Corson Swan for 4 yds to the NorAl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14FG10 plays · 58 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
99.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 24 yds to the NorAl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
99.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 6 yds to the NorAl 25Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+11
99.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 11 yds to the NorAl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
99.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 6 yds to the NorAl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:260% → 0%
UNADrive 16INT TD5 plays · 12 yds · 2:120% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 17PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:350% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18TD12 plays · 52 yds · 6:37100% → 100%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
99.8%
Ryan Glover pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 3 yds to the NorAl 49Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-6
99.8%
Ryan Glover sacked by Zakobe Shoulders for a loss of 6 yards to the NorAl 26Similar
Q3 11:13
3RD & 15
OPP 26
+9
99.8%
NORTH ALABAMA Penalty, Face mask (9 yards) (Philip Ossai) to the NorAl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.8%
Ryan Glover pass complete to John Hassell for 3 yds to the NorAl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNADrive 19PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q3 4:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
99.9%
WALTERS, Noah pass to the right incomplete intended for LUKE, Justin thrown to the MEM30. PENALTY MEM Pass Interference on BELL, DJ enforced 15 yards to the UNA43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:55
4TH & 9
OWN 44
+43
99.9%
Thomas Dowis punt for 43 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20TD9 plays · 88 yds · 5:55100% → 100%
UNADrive 21PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 2:210% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22DOWNS12 plays · 64 yds · 8:38100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:19
Jevyon Ducker run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)
+1.3
TD · Q1 7:15
Jevyon Ducker run for 6 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q2 3:41
Asa Martin run for 10 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)
+0.2