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NAVY

Navy 17 at UCF 14

UCF
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:54 · Mikey Keene pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Pregame prior+5.0Home team on offense−3.2Score differential−1.7Garbage-time factor−5.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:33: Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +12.7 pts (now 40%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:25: Mikey Keene pass complete to Javon Baker for 28 yds for a TD, (John Rhys Plumlee pass to Javon Baker for Two-Point Conversion) — UCF win probability +11.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 8:22: Bijan Nichols 45 yd FG GOOD — NAVY win probability +5.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:54: Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 45 — NAVY win probability +18.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:55: Timeout UCF, clock 01:55 — NAVY win probability +15.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NAVY made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 8:20NAVY 4th & 1 at UCF 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:25UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:57NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UCF 4th & 1 at NAVY 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    75.3%−1.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    72.0%−4.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:27UCF 4th & 4 at NAVY 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.0%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−4.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:11NAVY 4th & 19 at NAVY 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:23UCF 4th & 6 at NAVY 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:32NAVY 4th & 2 at UCF 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    28.6%−0.9
    58% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:13NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:22NAVY 4th & 4 at UCF 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.1%−0.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−8.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:24UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:16NAVY 4th & 13 at NAVY 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−4.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:29UCF 4th & 13 at NAVY 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−1.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    57.5%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:15NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−2.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:47UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:17NAVY 4th & 1 at UCF 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.1%−6.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:51NAVY 4th & 12 at UCF 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−4.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:54UCF 4th & 4 at NAVY 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    38.4%−3.5
    28% to make
    Punt
    37.0%−4.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:54NAVY 4th & 1 at UCF 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.0%−6.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 0 of 1NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:20NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:33NAVY Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:25UCF Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    69.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:4010% → 13%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.0%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
90.0%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
90.0%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
90.0%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
90.0%
Maquel Haywood run for 7 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
90.0%
Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+46
90.0%
Daba Fofana run for 46 yds to the UCF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
90.0%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
90.0%
Anton Hall Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 2Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
87.8%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the UCF 1Similar
Q1 8:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.8%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5587% → 85%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
87.0%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 11Similar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+6
87.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 6 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+9
87.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
87.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 2 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+4
87.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+3
87.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 3 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 5:25
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+4
85.4%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 53 yds , Amin Hassan returns for 4 yds to the Navy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:2815% → 17%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
85.3%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+6
85.3%
Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+3
85.2%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
85.2%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Evan Warren) to the Navy 22Similar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+3
85.3%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+2
85.3%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
85.4%
Xavier Arline pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:57
4TH & 10
OWN 27
+7
83.5%
Riley Riethman punt for 39 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 7 yds to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 4:3084% → 83%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
83.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 6 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+11
83.9%
RJ Harvey run for 11 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
84.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 10 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
84.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+13
84.4%
RJ Harvey run for 13 yds to the Navy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
83.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 5 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
83.4%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 10
0
82.9%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the Navy 10Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+3
82.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
83.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Navy 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
83.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 2 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
82.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
83.2%
Colton Boomer 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 2:0718% → 18%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
82.3%
Amin Hassan run for 3 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-7
81.6%
Xavier Arline sacked by Walter Yates III and Malachi Lawrence for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 16Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 14
OWN 16
-5
82.2%
Xavier Arline sacked by Ricky Barber for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 11Similar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 19
OWN 11
+6
82.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 50 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 6 yds to the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6FG
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:4883% → 83%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+37
82.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 37 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
83.6%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 21Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+7
83.4%
RJ Harvey run for 7 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
83.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+31
82.9%
Colton Boomer 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 6:4719% → 40%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
81.2%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
81.2%
Xavier Arline run for no gain to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+11
81.5%
Maquel Haywood run for 11 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+20
80.9%
Daba Fofana run for 20 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
79.6%
Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+3
79.5%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
75.9%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
75.4%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+4
75.5%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+3
73.4%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+5
75.2%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
72.4%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 16 yds to the UCF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
59.7%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8INT
9 plays · 34 yds · 1:2864% → 65%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
64.4%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Tyler Fletcher for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 14Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 12
OWN 14
0
64.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 12
OWN 14
+13
63.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 13 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
64.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 9 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 1
OWN 36
0
66.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+14
63.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
50
0
65.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
50
0
64.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3563% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
63.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Javon Baker for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
64.6%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+45
63.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 45 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-8
67.8%
Mikey Keene sacked by John Marshall for a loss of 8 yards to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 18
OPP 28
+28
79.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Javon Baker for 28 yds for a TD, (John Rhys Plumlee pass to Javon Baker for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:1225% → 25%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
74.7%
Daba Fofana run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 24Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
74.9%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
75.5%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+16
75.4%
Riley Riethman punt for 55 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 16 yds to the UCF 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:5376% → 76%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
76.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
76.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-4
76.4%
Mikey Keene sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5831% → 35%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
69.2%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
68.8%
Anton Hall Jr. run for no gain to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+3
70.5%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 8:22
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+45
65.2%
Bijan Nichols 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5868% → 65%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.5%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
67.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
64.5%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 56 yds, downed at the Navy 14Similar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
64.8%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:0835% → 35%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 15
OWN 9
0
65.2%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the Navy 9Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 15
OWN 9
+2
65.5%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 13
OWN 11
0
66.3%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the Navy 11Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 13
OWN 11
+1
65.1%
Riley Riethman punt for 55 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 1 yd to the UCF 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:4765% → 63%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
64.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 9 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+30
67.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 30 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
69.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
69.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-7
68.7%
Mikey Keene sacked by John Marshall for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 13
OPP 40
0
63.0%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the Navy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:1438% → 39%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
61.7%
Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 12Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+1
60.9%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the Navy 13Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+1
62.1%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 14Similar
Q3 1:15
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
61.4%
Riley Riethman punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the UCF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2863% → 60%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-9
62.5%
Mikey Keene sacked by John Marshall for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 19
OWN 22
+2
61.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 2 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 24
+12
58.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 12 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+15
59.5%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 53 yds , Vincent Terrell Jr. returns for 15 yds to the Navy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 5:5643% → 60%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
56.6%
Maquel Haywood run for 18 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
53.4%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 4
50
-1
52.6%
Daba Fofana run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+4
48.3%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+2
45.2%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
42.0%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+3
42.1%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-1
42.7%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 7
OPP 42
-5
45.1%
NAVY Penalty, Delay Of Game (Xavier Arline) to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
40.5%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 2:5752% → 49%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
52.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
51.9%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+18
50.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Javon Baker for 18 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
54.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 7 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+6
56.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
57.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Navy 48Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+5
57.4%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
51.2%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
48.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20END OF GAME
13 plays · 33 yds · 5:5470% → 95%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
30.2%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+1
30.3%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+6
30.8%
Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+1
32.1%
Xavier Arline run for 1 yd to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
28.4%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+12
28.4%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 12 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
12.7%
Daba Fofana run for 8 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+5
12.8%
Xavier Arline run for 5 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
10.2%
Xavier Arline run for 2 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
10.2%
[NH] Kneel down by NAV at UCF22 (team loss of 4).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 22
0
5.3%
[NH] Kneel down by NAV at UCF24 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:54
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 45
-18.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:55
Timeout UCF, clock 01:55
-15.6
TD · Q2 1:33
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 8 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
-12.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com