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HOU

Houston 42 at East Carolina 3

ECU
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:22 · Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Home team on offense−2.8Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−0.8Pregame prior+11.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:24: Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 9 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +10.6 pts (now 59%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:55: Brandon Campbell run for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +15.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:11: [NHSG] Kneel down by COLEY, Lucas at HOU10 (team loss of 0). — HOU win probability +8.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:50: Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 26 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +10.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 7:38: Andrew Conrad 21 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +3.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:36ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:01ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:02ECU 4th & 8 at HOU 26, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:22HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:49ECU 4th & 8 at HOU 32, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    59.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:00ECU 4th & 13 at HOU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    42.6%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:11ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:38ECU 4th & 4 at HOU 4, down 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.9%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:00ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 45, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:49HOU 4th & 12 at HOU 2, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:04ECU 4th & 7 at HOU 27, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:04HOU 4th & 2 at ECU 35, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:04HOU 4th & 3 at ECU 10, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:05ECU 4th & 7 at HOU 27, down 39
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:22HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 30, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:23ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 27, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:23HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:24HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:55HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:50HOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:45HOU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:11HOU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2464% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
64.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
64.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
63.9%
Luke Larsen punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 3:1336% → 38%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
64.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 22Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+2
64.0%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+13
64.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 13 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
64.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 18 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
63.9%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+33
63.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 33 yds to the ECaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
61.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 12 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2262% → 62%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
62.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
62.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
61.5%
Luke Larsen punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Nathaniel Dell at the Houst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4INT
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:5539% → 40%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
61.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-10
61.5%
CAMPBELL, Brandon rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the HOU27 (MIMS, Shaundre). PENALTY HOU Holding on FREEMAN, Jack enforced 10 yards from the HOU23 to the HOU13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 20
OWN 13
+6
61.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 6 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 14
OWN 19
+47
61.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 47 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
60.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 14
OPP 38
0
61.1%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 14
OPP 38
0
59.6%
Clayton Tune pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5DOWNS
5 plays · 57 yds · 2:0460% → 60%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+55
60.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 55 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-7
61.5%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 34 Holton Ahlers fumbled, recovered by ECaro Keaton MitchellSimilar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 16
OPP 34
0
61.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 16
OPP 34
+8
60.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 8 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 8
OPP 26
0
59.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4041% → 42%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
58.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kelan Walker for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+9
58.9%
Clayton Tune run for 9 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
58.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
58.1%
Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 22Similar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
58.0%
AHLERS, Holton pass to the left incomplete intended for WINSTEAD, Isaiah thrown to the ECU25. PENALTY HOU Pass Interference on EMERY, Jalen enforced at the spot of the foul for 7 yards to the ECU29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 46 yds · 2:3358% → 57%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+24
58.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 24 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
59.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+13
59.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 13 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
60.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 5 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-3
59.3%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
57.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 8
OPP 32
0
56.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 5:2545% → 59%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
55.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 7 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-6
54.6%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 33Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+15
56.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 15 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
54.5%
Clayton Tune run for 12 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
54.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 2 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+8
52.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 8 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
52.3%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+16
52.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 16 yds to the ECaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
52.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 5 yds to the ECaro 9Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
41.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 9 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:1643% → 41%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
43.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
43.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+12
43.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 12 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
44.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 22 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
45.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 1 yd to the Houst 41Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 9
OPP 41
-4
45.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 13
OPP 45
0
44.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 13
OPP 45
0
40.5%
Luke Larsen punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Peyton Sawyer at the Houst 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 92 yds · 0:0560% → 77%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 11
OWN 8
+11
40.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 11 yds to the Houst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
39.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 12 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
39.5%
Clayton Tune run for 6 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+18
39.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 18 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+27
38.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 27 yds to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
38.1%
Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the ECaro 14Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+4
38.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 4 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+5
38.5%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the ECaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
23.3%
Brandon Campbell run for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:3625% → 25%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
24.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 7 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+12
25.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 12 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
26.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
25.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 4 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
26.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
24.8%
Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Peyton Sawyer at the Houst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
16.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by COLEY, Lucas at HOU10 (team loss of 0).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 3:0283% → 94%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
17.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
50
-5
17.3%
HENRY, Ta'Zhawn rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the ECU47 (STRINGER, Gerard). PENALTY Before the snap, HOU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the HOU50 to the HOU45. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 15
OWN 45
0
17.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+27
17.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 27 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
16.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matt Byrnes for 3 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-1
16.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 26Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+26
6.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 26 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14FG
8 plays · 71 yds · 4:126% → 4%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
6.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
6.2%
AHLERS, Holton pass to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON, C.J. thrown to the HOU40. PENALTY HOU Pass Interference on ROGERS, Jayce enforced 15 yards to the ECU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
6.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 14 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+35
7.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 35 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
8.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 11Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+6
8.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the Houst 5Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
7.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 1 yd to the Houst 4Similar
Q3 7:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
4.0%
Andrew Conrad 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:5396% → 98%
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
3.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 12 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
3.8%
HENRY, Ta'Zhawn rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the HOU41 (WILK, Teagan). PENALTY HOU Holding on SYLVESTER, Trevonte enforced 10 yards from the HOU37 to the HOU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+23
3.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
50
+12
3.6%
Brandon Campbell run for 12 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
3.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 12 yds to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
1.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 26 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:402% → 2%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
2.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
2.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+2
2.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 2 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+2
1.7%
Luke Larsen punt for 50 yds , Peyton Sawyer returns for 2 yds to the Houst 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1198% → 98%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
1.7%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 2Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 12
OWN 2
0
1.8%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 12
OWN 2
0
1.8%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 12
OWN 2
0
1.6%
Laine Wilkins punt for 59 yds, downed at the ECaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:452% → 1%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
1.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 18 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
2.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 5 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-5
2.0%
Holton Ahlers sacked by D'Anthony Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+13
0.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 13 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
1.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
1.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+3
0.9%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 7
OPP 27
0
0.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 7:5399% → 100%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
0.9%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+17
0.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 17 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
0.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the Houst 44Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
0.9%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+13
0.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 13 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
0.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+4
0.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
0.8%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+18
1.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 18 yds to the ECaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
0.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 18Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 11
OPP 18
0
0.8%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for no gain to the ECaro 18Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+8
0.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 8 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q4 7:04
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+7
0.3%
Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the ECaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.2%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 48 yds · 3:060% → 0%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Mason Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.2%
Mason Garcia run for 8 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+37
0.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 37 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-6
0.2%
Mason Garcia sacked by Nelson Ceaser and Latrell Bankston for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 36Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 16
OPP 36
-2
0.2%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 38Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 18
OPP 38
+11
0.2%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Kerry King for 11 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 7
OPP 27
0
0.1%
Mason Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
0.2%
Kelan Walker run for no gain to the Houst 27Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
0.2%
Lucas Coley run for 2 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+1
0.1%
Lucas Coley run for 1 yd to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Laine Wilkins punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:590% → 0%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
0.1%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 4 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
0.1%
Mason Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+1
0.1%
Mason Garcia run for 1 yd to the ECaro 27Similar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
0.0%
Luke Larsen punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Peyton Sawyer at the Houst 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
0.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by TUNE, Clayton at HOU38 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:55
Brandon Campbell run for 5 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q2 9:24
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 9 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
-10.6
TD · Q3 11:50
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 26 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
-10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com