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USF

South Florida 42 at Tulsa 48

TLSA
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2022 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-1.7TLSA 73.1%Spencer Shrader 34 yd FG GOODAWAY 13 - HOME 7 · Q2 14:15
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:15 · Spencer Shrader 34 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Pregame prior+24.5Home team on offense−3.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:13: Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 18 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +7.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:50: Byrum Brown run for 6 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +9.0 pts (now 17%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:10: Byrum Brown pass complete to Jayson Littlejohn for 17 yds for a TD, (B. Battie Run For Two-point Conversion) — USF win probability +15.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 14:27: Deneric Prince run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +9.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:49: Brian Battie run for 21 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +14.8 pts (now 18%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 8:28USF 4th & 4 at TLSA 7, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.2%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:39TLSA 4th & 12 at USF 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    78.6%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:15USF 4th & 10 at TLSA 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−2.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:43TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 42, down 6
    Close callPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:56USF 4th & 12 at USF 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:51TLSA 4th & 1 at USF 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.9%−3.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−12.2
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:56USF 4th & 8 at USF 31, down 3
    Numbers favored punt by 2.5 ptsWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.5%−2.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.0%
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:02USF 4th & 2 at TLSA 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−1.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:10TLSA 4th & 7 at USF 7, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    88.0%−3.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:17TLSA 4th & 6 at USF 41, up 6
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    93.7%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:43USF 4th & 10 at USF 9, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−3.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 3:35USF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:32TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:14TLSA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:25TLSA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:23TLSA Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:13USF Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:12TLSA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:50USF Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:10USF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    24.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    24.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:27TLSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:49USF Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.2 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 6:2718% → 20%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.9%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
81.8%
Brian Battie run for 6 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
81.5%
Jason Albritton run for 4 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
81.3%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
81.1%
Michel Dukes run for 1 yd to the SFla 42Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+12
80.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 12 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+33
80.5%
Brian Battie run for 33 yds to the Tulsa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
80.3%
Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+4
80.0%
Byrum Brown run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+1
79.6%
Byrum Brown run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 7Similar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
79.6%
Spencer Shrader 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:3680% → 79%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.5%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
79.5%
Deneric Prince run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+21
79.4%
Deneric Prince run for 21 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
79.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
79.7%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-5
79.6%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (JuanCarlos Santana) to the SFla 42Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
79.2%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
78.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the SFla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 2:5121% → 26%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
78.9%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+13
78.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chris Mottillo for 13 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
78.4%
Michel Dukes run for 3 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+14
78.1%
Michel Dukes run for 14 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+37
77.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 37 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
74.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chris Mottillo for 20 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 1:4574% → 78%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
73.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 7 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+5
73.9%
Deneric Prince run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+67
73.1%
Deneric Prince run for 67 yds to the SFla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
73.8%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 3Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
78.0%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5FG
7 plays · 47 yds · 1:5324% → 27%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+36
76.0%
Byrum Brown run for 36 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
74.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Holden Willis for 11 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-14
74.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 1 yd to the Tulsa 15 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Brad Cecil) to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 24
OPP 30
+7
75.0%
Brian Battie run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 14:39
3RD & 17
OPP 23
+7
74.8%
Byrum Brown run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
73.1%
Spencer Shrader 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6FUMBLE
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2074% → 71%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.6%
Jordan Ford run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
73.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 10 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
73.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 4 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
73.3%
Jordan Ford run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
72.6%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
71.4%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 36 yds , Sean Atkins returns for no gain to the SFla 22 Sean Atkins fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Mitchell KulkinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:1674% → 79%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
73.9%
Steven Anderson run for 6 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+7
73.6%
Steven Anderson run for 7 yds to the SFla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
73.4%
Braylon Braxton run for 8 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.7%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:0724% → 23%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
75.8%
Michel Dukes run for 3 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-9
74.8%
Byrum Brown sacked by Bryce Alonso and Jon-Michael Terry for a loss of 9 yards to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 16
OWN 34
+4
76.9%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 7:56
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
77.1%
Andrew Stokes punt for 43 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for no gain to the Tulsa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 2:1577% → 82%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
76.9%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+16
76.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 16 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+24
76.9%
Deneric Prince run for 24 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
78.4%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
78.3%
Steven Anderson run for 8 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+4
78.0%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
83.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 31 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
82.2%
TULSA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 25
OWN 20
-5
81.9%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:3919% → 20%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
81.0%
Brian Battie run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-6
80.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 47 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Tyon DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:4983% → 89%
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
83.4%
Jordan Ford run for 4 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+17
83.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 17 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
83.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Braylon Braxton for 13 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
83.6%
Jordan Ford run for 3 yds to the SFla 10Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
89.4%
Deneric Prince 10 Yd Run (Zack Long Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:0013% → 21%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
87.4%
K'Wan Powell run for 6 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+14
86.9%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 14 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
86.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for no gain to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+21
87.5%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 21 yds to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
86.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+18
79.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 18 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13FG
19 plays · 70 yds · 1:0384% → 86%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
83.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Deneric Prince for 19 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
84.6%
Braxton, Braylon pass incomplete to Jones, Malachai, PENALTY SOUFLA pass interference (Jones II, Will) 15 yards to the SOUFLA41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
84.8%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+12
84.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 12 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
85.3%
Braylon Braxton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+5
84.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Malachai Jones for 5 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
85.3%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-10
85.4%
Braxton, Braylon rush for 1 yard to the SOUFLA28, PENALTY TULSA holding (Muskrat, Jaden) 10 yards to the SOUFLA39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 20
OPP 39
+2
84.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Steven Anderson for 2 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 18
OPP 37
+23
83.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Malachai Jones for 23 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
84.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 4 yds to the SFla 10Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+5
86.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SFla 5Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+23
86.3%
Zack Long 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:3386% → 93%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
85.6%
Deneric Prince run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+4
85.9%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+22
85.7%
Deneric Prince run for 22 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+38
86.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 38 yds to the SFla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
86.7%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.4%
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 4:089% → 15%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
91.1%
Brian Battie run for 9 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+6
90.6%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
91.0%
Michel Dukes run for 2 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
91.1%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 5 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+8
91.0%
Byrum Brown run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
92.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 8 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+33
92.0%
Brian Battie run for 33 yds to the Tulsa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
91.6%
Brian Battie run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
82.6%
Byrum Brown run for 6 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+15
85.2%
TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:2617% → 32%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
82.9%
Brown, Byrum pass incomplete to Horn Jr., Jimmy, PENALTY SOUFLA holding (Jacobs, Demontrey) 10 yards to the TULSA45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+18
84.4%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 18 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+10
82.7%
Brian Battie run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
67.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jayson Littlejohn for 17 yds for a TD, (B. Battie Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:0174% → 74%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
73.8%
Deneric Prince run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+3
74.0%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
72.9%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
73.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
73.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 4 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+40
72.4%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Steven Anderson for 40 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
77.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 6 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+3
76.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 3 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 1
OPP 19
0
75.5%
Braylon Braxton run for no gain to the SFla 19Similar
Q3 2:51
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
73.8%
Steven Anderson run for no gain to the SFla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:3927% → 26%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
72.8%
Byrum Brown run for 10 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
72.3%
Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-10
71.9%
Battie, Brian rush for 31 yards to the TULSA39, PENALTY SOUFLA illegal block 10 yards to the SOUFLA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 19
OWN 20
+7
72.8%
Byrum Brown run for 7 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 0:07
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+4
73.8%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Michel Dukes for 4 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 8
OWN 31
-13
73.9%
Andrew Stokes run for a loss of 13 yards to the SFla 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:2376% → 89%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
76.3%
Deneric Prince run for 15 yds to the SFla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
79.2%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the SFla 3 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (2 Yards) to the SFla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.7%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 4:1413% → 12%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
86.8%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+20
86.6%
Brian Battie run for 20 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
84.8%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+1
86.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 14
50
+15
86.9%
Brown, Byrum pass incomplete to Willis, Holden, PENALTY TULSA pass interference (Ray, Kendarin) 15 yards to the TULSA35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SOUFLA.Similar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
84.0%
Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+3
84.0%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+4
85.3%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 4 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 2
OPP 27
0
88.1%
Michel Dukes run for no gain to the Tulsa 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:4289% → 97%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
89.0%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 4 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+6
89.1%
Deneric Prince run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
90.8%
Deneric Prince run for 16 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
92.0%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 14
OWN 49
+6
91.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 6 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+44
92.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 44 yds to the SFla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 0
OPP 1
-5
93.6%
TULSA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 6Similar
Q4 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
93.2%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the SFla 6Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
93.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the SFla 3Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
93.9%
Braylon Braxton run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 7Similar
Q4 5:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
96.9%
Zack Long 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:064% → 18%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
96.2%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 17 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
95.9%
Byrum Brown run for no gain to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
96.7%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 4 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+9
97.0%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Sean Atkins for 9 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
96.6%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Omarion DollisonSimilar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
81.8%
Brian Battie run for 21 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:3095% → 95%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
95.3%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the SFla 44Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
95.4%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the SFla 44Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+3
95.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
95.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the SFla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:179% → 8%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
91.3%
Byrum Brown run for no gain to the SFla 9Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
91.5%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Holden WillisSimilar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
91.9%
Byrum Brown pass incomplete to Holden WillisSimilar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 10
OWN 9
0
92.3%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:2997% → 97%
Q4 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 12Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-2
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:10
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jayson Littlejohn for 17 yds for a TD, (B. Battie Run For Two-point Conversion)
-15.1
TD · Q4 2:49
Brian Battie run for 21 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
-14.8
TD · Q4 14:27
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)
+9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com