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UCF

UCF 38 at Tulane 31

TULN
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Yulman Stadium
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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:38 · John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Alec Holler
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Home team on offense−4.4Score differential−2.2Garbage-time factor−1.1Pregame prior+3.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:15: Michael Pratt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — TULN win probability +8.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:58: John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +13.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:39: Michael Pratt pass complete to Reggie Brown for 2 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — TULN win probability +19.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:32: Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +7.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:46: Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 6 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — TULN win probability +19.0 pts (now 22%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:17UCF 4th & 7 at TULN 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    45.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:31TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:31UCF 4th & 5 at TULN 39, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    45.9%−0.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:38UCF 4th & 1 at TULN 1, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    50.5%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−4.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:14TULN 4th & 5 at TULN 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:38UCF 4th & 16 at UCF 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−3.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:11UCF 4th & 7 at TULN 45, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.7%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    63.9%
    25% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:18TULN 4th & 10 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:41TULN 4th & 5 at UCF 5, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−9.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:32UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:00TULN 4th & 6 at UCF 27, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    16.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−6.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:04UCF 4th & 6 at TULN 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    91.0%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:49UCF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:39TULN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:24UCF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:18UCF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:15TULN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:58UCF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:39TULN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:32UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.7
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:46TULN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−2.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 2:2845% → 45%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
54.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
54.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
54.8%
TULANE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
54.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
54.8%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+18
54.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
50
+47
54.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 47 yds to the Tulan 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-5
54.6%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tulan 8Similar
Q1 13:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
54.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the Tulan 4Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
54.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 7Similar
Q1 12:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
54.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q1 12:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
54.7%
Colton Boomer 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3755% → 55%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
54.8%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Duece WattsSimilar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
54.8%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the Tulan 20Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
54.7%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Dea Dea McDougleSimilar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
54.6%
Casey Glover punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:2145% → 47%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
54.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 8 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-5
54.5%
UCF Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+67
53.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 67 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+15
53.0%
TULANE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:5153% → 55%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+70
53.1%
Tyjae Spears run for 70 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
53.9%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 2 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
53.5%
Tyjae Spears run for 6 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 1 yd for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 5:4645% → 52%
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 9 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
54.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
54.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
54.5%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+17
54.2%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 17 yds to the Tulan 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
54.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
53.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
54.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+7
54.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the Tulan 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
53.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+6
53.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the Tulan 23Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
53.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Tulan 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
53.2%
Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the Tulan 16Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+13
53.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 13 yds to the Tulan 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
53.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the Tulan 2Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
52.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Alec HollerSimilar
Q1 2:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
48.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:0749% → 49%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
49.3%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Dea Dea McDougleSimilar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+16
49.3%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulan 4 Shaadie Clayton-Johnson fumbled, forced by Kam Moore, recovered by UCF K.D. McDaniel for a 1ST down , return for 20 yds to the TULANE 45 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, Face Mask (4 yards) (-4 Yards) to the Tulan 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2252% → 52%
Q1 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
47.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 5Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
47.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Tulan 2Similar
Q1 1:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
47.5%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the Tulan 1Similar
Q1 0:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
47.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Alec HollerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:0148% → 47%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+9
47.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 9 yds to the Tulan 10Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 1
OWN 10
+31
48.0%
Tyjae Spears run for 31 yds to the Tulan 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
48.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Iverson Celestine for 3 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+4
48.7%
Tyjae Spears run for 4 yds to the Tulan 48Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 3
OWN 48
-2
48.6%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shaadie Clayton-Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 46Similar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
47.0%
Casey Glover punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the UCF 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 5:4753% → 63%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
47.3%
RJ Harvey run for 14 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
46.7%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+9
46.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
45.5%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
44.6%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the Tulan 48Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+7
44.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 7 yds to the Tulan 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
43.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+7
43.8%
Johnny Richardson run for 7 yds to the Tulan 32Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+8
43.5%
RJ Harvey run for 8 yds to the Tulan 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
43.1%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the Tulan 19Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+7
42.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 7 yds to the Tulan 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
40.3%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the Tulan 8Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
37.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 8 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:4536% → 43%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
36.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 5 yds to the Tulan 30 TULANE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulan 20Similar
Q2 6:31
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
35.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 7 yds to the Tulan 27Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
35.0%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Shaadie Clayton-JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+27
34.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 27 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
37.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 4 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+8
36.8%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (8 Yards) to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
37.4%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 2 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
36.5%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Shae WyattSimilar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+15
35.3%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-3
36.4%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 13
OPP 20
-12
35.3%
Michael Pratt sacked by Jason Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the UCF 32 Michael Pratt fumbled, forced by Jason Johnson, recovered by Tulan Will Wallace , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 25
OPP 32
+10
33.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for 10 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 15
OPP 22
+11
32.0%
UCF Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (11 Yards) to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
34.8%
Michael Pratt run for 2 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+8
34.1%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 8 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.9%
Michael Pratt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11FUMBLE
7 plays · -6 yds · 0:2762% → 61%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
37.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to RJ HarveySimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-9
37.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 1 yd to the UCF 20 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 10Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 19
OWN 10
+3
38.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the UCF 13Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 16
OWN 13
0
38.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 16
OWN 13
0
39.2%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 39 yds , Kiland Harrison returns for no gain to the Tulan 48 Kiland Harrison fumbled, recovered by UCF Justin HodgesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:1965% → 65%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
34.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 17
OWN 45
0
36.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 17
OWN 45
+10
36.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 10 yds to the Tulan 45Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
35.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0238% → 39%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
37.7%
Michael Pratt run for 11 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-7
39.3%
Michael Pratt sacked by Tre'mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulan 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:2837% → 35%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
37.0%
Tyjae Spears run for 6 yds to the Tulan 41Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+9
38.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyjae Spears for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
50
0
38.6%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Dea Dea McDougleSimilar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 10
50
0
38.1%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 10
50
0
36.4%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Jha'Quan JacksonSimilar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 10
50
0
35.0%
Casey Glover punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the UCF 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 4:1564% → 83%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
36.1%
TULANE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (8 Yards) to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+20
34.2%
RJ Harvey run for 20 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
33.1%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 9
50
-2
32.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+15
33.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 15 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
32.1%
TULANE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Tulan 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
31.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 10 yds to the Tulan 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
31.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Tulan 9Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
17.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16FG
15 plays · 53 yds · 4:5722% → 21%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
22.0%
Iverson Celestine run for 1 yd to the Tulan 43Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+5
21.5%
Tyjae Spears run for 5 yds to the Tulan 48Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+5
21.1%
Tyjae Spears run for 5 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
21.4%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Dea Dea McDougleSimilar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
21.1%
Iverson Celestine run for 3 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+15
20.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 15 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
21.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 8 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q3 5:36
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+3
21.2%
Iverson Celestine run for 3 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
20.9%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Lawrence Keys IIISimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+12
20.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 12 yds to the UCF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
20.2%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
20.1%
Michael Pratt run for 1 yd to the UCF 5Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
19.3%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Dea Dea McDougleSimilar
Q3 3:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
21.4%
Valentino Ambrosio 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:0183% → 85%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
16.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
15.6%
RJ Harvey run for 11 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
14.7%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 46 RJ Harvey fumbled, forced by Dorian Williams, recovered by UCF Samuel JacksonSimilar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-10
14.0%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 16
OWN 36
+6
14.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
14.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q3 0:32
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
14.7%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jha'Quan Jackson at the Tulan 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:3617% → 38%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
16.5%
Iverson Celestine run for 1 yd to the Tulan 28Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+12
16.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 12 yds to the Tulan 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+29
17.6%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 29 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
19.4%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 1 yd to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+3
18.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 3 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 6
OPP 27
0
17.8%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Duece WattsSimilar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+7
16.6%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 7 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
18.1%
Shaadie Clayton-Johnson run for 11 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
17.8%
Iverson Celestine run for 7 yds to the UCF 2Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
37.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Reggie Brown for 2 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 7:5274% → 97%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
25.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
24.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
22.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+16
22.9%
TULANE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (16 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
50
+4
18.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
18.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Tulan 45Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+9
19.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 9 yds to the Tulan 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
18.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for no gain to the Tulan 36Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
17.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 9 yds to the Tulan 27Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+3
16.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Tulan 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
15.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Tulan 21Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+4
14.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Tulan 17Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+6
12.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 6 yds to the Tulan 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
11.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Tulan 8Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+4
10.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Tulan 4Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+3
10.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Tulan 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:423% → 22%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.3%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Will WallaceSimilar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
3.3%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Jha'Quan JacksonSimilar
Q4 3:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+36
3.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 36 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
3.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 10 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
3.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 18 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
3.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Iverson Celestine for 5 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
3.1%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Reggie BrownSimilar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
22.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 6 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:3995% → 95%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
4.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Tulan 42Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-4
4.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 46Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+7
5.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q4 0:04
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
4.9%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 27 yds, downed at the Tulan 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
8.6%
Michael Pratt pass incomplete to Lawrence Keys IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:39
Michael Pratt pass complete to Reggie Brown for 2 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
+19.8
TD · Q4 1:46
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 6 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
+19
TD · Q3 8:58
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)
-13.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com