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SMU

SMU 41 at South Florida 23

USF
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:02 · Colin McCreary punt for 37 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Pregame prior−36.5Home team on offense−1.5Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:41: Jason Albritton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +4.2 pts (now 20%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 2:44: Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 32 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +9.5 pts (now 27%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 8:10: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 21 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +10.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:56: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 70 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +11.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:13: Tyler Lavine run for 8 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +5.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 8 of 9SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:32SMU 4th & 4 at USF 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:36USF 4th & 3 at SMU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    15.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:02USF 4th & 22 at USF 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:22SMU 4th & 5 at USF 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:17USF 4th & 1 at SMU 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    16.7%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:41SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.8%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:50USF 4th & 10 at USF 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:54SMU 4th & 4 at USF 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.0%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:01SMU 4th & 7 at USF 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%
    42% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:08USF 4th & 15 at SMU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−1.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:26USF 4th & 13 at SMU 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−1.4
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    34.3%−1.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:05USF 4th & 1 at USF 34, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:01USF 4th & 3 at USF 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.4%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:02SMU 4th & 7 at USF 28, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:02USF 4th & 5 at SMU 34, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:08SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:41USF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:23SMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:44USF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:10SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:56SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:13SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:46USF Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:2888% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
11.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
11.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
11.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to RJ Maryland for 5 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
11.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 11 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
11.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+4
11.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
-1
11.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 47Similar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
12.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5613% → 13%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
12.8%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
12.7%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+7
12.7%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 7 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
13.2%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:2887% → 87%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
12.9%
Camar Wheaton run for 5 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+18
12.9%
Camar Wheaton run for 18 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+26
12.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 26 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
12.8%
Camar Wheaton run for 3 yds to the SFla 2Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
12.8%
Camar Wheaton run for 1 yd to the SFla 1Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.7%
Camar Wheaton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0213% → 13%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
13.0%
Jason Albritton run for 14 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
13.0%
MARSH, Katravis pass to the right complete for 20 yards to WEAVER, Xavier caught at the SMU50 and advanced to the SMU50, out of bounds. PENALTY USF Illegal Touch-Pass on WEAVER, Xavier enforced 0 yards from the USF30 to the USF30, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
13.0%
Brian Battie run for 2 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-14
12.9%
Katravis Marsh sacked by DeVere Levelston for a loss of 14 yards to the SFla 18Similar
Q1 8:02
4TH & 22
OWN 18
0
13.2%
Colin McCreary punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:4087% → 86%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
13.1%
Velton Gardner run for 10 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
13.1%
Velton Gardner run for no gain to the SFla 45Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
13.1%
Velton Gardner run for 4 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+10
13.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 10 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+21
13.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 21 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
13.0%
Camar Wheaton run for 6 yds to the SFla 4Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
13.1%
Camar Wheaton run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 5Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
13.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
14.0%
Collin Rogers 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:3614% → 20%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
14.2%
Brian Battie run for 14 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
14.5%
Brian Battie run for 7 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+24
14.6%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 24 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
15.0%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
15.0%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+5
14.7%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Sean Atkins for 5 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+1
14.5%
run for 1 yd to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
15.0%
Michel Dukes run for 2 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+10
15.5%
Brian Battie run for 10 yds to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
15.5%
Brian Battie run for 6 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
15.5%
Jason Albritton run for 1 yd to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.7%
Jason Albritton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1882% → 85%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
18.3%
Tyler Lavine run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
18.4%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the right incomplete intended for MARYLAND, RJ broken up by GORDON IV, DJ at the SMU46. PENALTY USF Holding on WILLIAMS, Christian enforced 10 yards from the SMU23 to the SMU33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
18.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
18.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+4
17.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 4 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+3
18.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
17.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+24
17.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 24 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
17.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+3
17.1%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+5
17.5%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
15.4%
Camar Wheaton run for 18 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:3315% → 15%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
15.3%
Brian Battie run for 5 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
15.6%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
15.2%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Sean Atkins for 7 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
15.6%
Katravis Marsh run for 2 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-2
15.8%
Brian Battie run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
15.1%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
14.8%
Andrew Stokes punt for 46 yds, downed at the SMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:5684% → 84%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
15.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 9 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+4
15.2%
Camar Wheaton run for 4 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
15.5%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the right incomplete dropped by RICE, Rashee thrown to the SMU35. PENALTY USF Personal Foul on HILL, Matthew enforced 15 yards from the SMU30 to the SMU45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
14.9%
Velton Gardner run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+6
15.1%
Tanner Mordecai run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 5
50
+1
15.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 1 yd to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 3:54
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
16.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 1:1017% → 27%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
17.1%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 12 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
17.4%
Brian Battie run for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+32
26.9%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 32 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11MISSED FG
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:4377% → 77%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+34
22.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 34 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
21.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
21.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for no gain to the SFla 36Similar
Q2 2:44
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
21.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+53
22.6%
Collin Rogers 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12FG
10 plays · 40 yds · 0:5325% → 29%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
25.2%
Brian Battie run for 5 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+20
26.6%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 20 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+20
27.3%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Sean Atkins for 20 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
29.8%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
28.1%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
26.6%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 10
OPP 19
-5
24.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 15
OPP 24
+41
29.0%
Spencer Shrader 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 26 yds · 0:0173% → 75%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
26.9%
Camar Wheaton run for 16 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
25.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 10 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:3430% → 33%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
30.4%
Brian Battie run for 9 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
32.1%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
31.3%
Xavier Weaver run for 1 yd to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+6
31.3%
run for 6 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+15
31.9%
SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
33.4%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-2
33.2%
Brian Battie run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+4
31.2%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 38
-5
30.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 43Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 13
OPP 43
0
32.6%
Colin McCreary punt for 40 yds, downed at the SMU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 97 yds · 2:1668% → 83%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
31.7%
Camar Wheaton run for 3 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+10
32.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 10 yds to the SMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
31.2%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the right incomplete intended for RICE, Rashee thrown to the SMU38. PENALTY USF Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Christian enforced 15 yards to the SMU31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
30.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 10 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+30
29.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 30 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
26.9%
Camar Wheaton run for 8 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+21
16.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 21 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0521% → 21%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.9%
Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the SFla 26Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
20.9%
Brian Battie run for 8 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
21.6%
Jason Albritton run for no gain to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
21.1%
Andrew Stokes punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17TD
1 play · 70 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
9.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 70 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5511% → 12%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.1%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
11.0%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Michel Dukes for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
10.9%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 9 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
11.6%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
12.0%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
12.2%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
11.5%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:4892% → 98%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
8.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 15 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
7.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+7
7.8%
Velton Gardner run for 7 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+5
8.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
7.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 7 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q3 0:13
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
1.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 8 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20INT
12 plays · 59 yds · 3:333% → 2%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.1%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
3.0%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+23
2.9%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Sean Atkins for 23 yds Sean Atkins fumbled, recovered by SFla Jimmy Horn Jr. , return to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
3.1%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+5
3.2%
SMU Penalty, Offsides (Terrance Newman) to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 42
0
3.4%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+20
3.4%
Brian Battie run for 20 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
3.5%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 14 yds to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
3.6%
Brian Battie run for 2 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
3.9%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
3.8%
MARSH, Katravis pass to the right incomplete dropped by TERRY, Yusuf thrown to the SMU0. PENALTY USF Holding on BAILEY, JR., Derrell enforced 10 yards from the SMU6 to the SMU16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
2.4%
Katravis Marsh pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21FG
7 plays · 52 yds · 3:3898% → 99%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
1.8%
Camar Wheaton run for 26 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
1.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 6
50
+19
1.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 19 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
1.6%
Velton Gardner run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 32Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+4
1.6%
Camar Wheaton run for 4 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 7
OPP 28
0
1.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+45
1.2%
Collin Rogers 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:161% → 2%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.4%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
1.4%
Brian Battie run for 15 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
1.5%
Katravis Marsh run for 5 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
1.5%
K'Wan Powell run for 4 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
1.6%
K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
1.6%
Katravis Marsh run for 10 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
1.6%
Brian Battie run for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 3
OPP 32
0
1.8%
Brian Battie run for no gain to the SMU 32Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-2
1.7%
Byrum Brown sacked by Ahmaad Moses for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 8:02
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+7
1.6%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Garret Reynolds for 7 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
1.8%
Brian Battie run for 13 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
1.8%
Byrum Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-3
0.9%
Brian Battie run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 17Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+17
2.0%
Jayson Littlejohn 17 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:4699% → 99%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
1.0%
TJ McDaniel run for 7 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+5
1.0%
Kevin Jennings run for 5 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
0.9%
TJ McDaniel run for 12 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:56
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 70 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)
-11.6
TD · Q3 8:10
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 21 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q2 2:44
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 32 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+9.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com