View as
Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:01 · Laine Wilkins punt for 35 yds, downed at the Temp 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:59: Edward Saydee 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — TEM win probability +10.4 pts (now 29%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:11: E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 5 yds for a TD, (Camden Price KICK) — TEM win probability +16.4 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 12:49: Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 10 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +10.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:22: E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 6 yds for a TD, (Camden Price KICK) — TEM win probability +52.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:40: Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 44 yds for a TD, (C. Tune Run For Two-point Conversion) — HOU win probability +54.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5TEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 4:39TEM 4th & 2 at HOU 46, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.5%57% to convertField goal15.1%−0.523% to makePunt15.3%−0.2average punt
- Q1 4:39HOU 4th & 2 at TEM 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.3%57% to convertField goal84.8%−0.523% to makePunt85.1%−0.2average punt
- Q1 4:39HOU 4th & 12 at TEM 43, down 7Close callWent for it · 84.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call84.7%−0.124% to convertField goal84.7%−0.128% to makePunt84.8%average punt
- Q2 14:28HOU 4th & 2 at TEM 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call85.4%57% to convertField goal85.2%−0.266% to makePunt84.1%−1.3average punt
- Q2 5:59TEM 4th & 10 at HOU 10, down 7Close callWent for it · 14.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.4%−0.524% to convertField goal13.8%88% to makePunt10.6%−3.2average punt
- Q2 4:04HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 31, up 1Close callPunted · 81.7% before the snapGo for it82.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 1:01HOU 4th & 14 at TEM 43, down 5Close callPunted · 70.0% before the snapGo for it69.1%−0.619% to convertField goal69.7%28% to makePuntTheir call69.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 5:49TEM 4th & 6 at HOU 36, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.3%40% to convertField goal12.6%−0.842% to makePunt12.1%−1.3average punt
- Q4 8:47TEM 4th & 4 at HOU 4, down 9Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 12.2% before the snapGo for it14.5%40% to convertField goalTheir call11.8%−2.793% to makePunt4.1%−10.3average punt
- Q4 1:22TEM 4th & 3 at HOU 6, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.3%46% to convertField goal11.0%−5.391% to makePunt5.3%−11.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 10:59TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.5%97% to makeGo for two11.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:35HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.2%97% to makeGo for two84.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:49HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.6%97% to makeGo for two86.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:59TEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call17.6%97% to makeGo for two17.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:59TEM Touchdown, up 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick28.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call28.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:42HOU Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.8%97% to makeGo for two80.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:58HOU Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.0%97% to makeGo for two87.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:11TEM Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.8%97% to makeGo for two26.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:49HOU Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.3%97% to makeGo for two90.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 1:22TEM Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.9%97% to makeGo for two50.7%−4.245% to convert
- Q4 0:40HOU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick83.3%−0.897% to makeGo for twoTheir call84.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1TD10 plays · 79 yds · 3:549% → 11%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
91.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 16 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+8
91.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 8 yds to the Temp 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+5
91.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 5 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+24
91.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 24 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
91.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 8 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
89.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 13 yds for a TD, (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2INT9 plays · 34 yds · 3:3190% → 88%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
89.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 8 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
89.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 6 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+11
89.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 11 yds to the Temp 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
88.3%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Holding (Tyler Johnson) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3DOWNS7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4912% → 14%
HOUDrive 4TD12 plays · 54 yds · 5:0487% → 87%
Q1 4:39
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+5
86.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 5 yds to the Temp 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
86.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 6 yds to the Temp 35Similar
Q1 4:39
4TH & 12
OPP 43
+15
86.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 15 yds to the Temp 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+9
84.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 9 yds to the Temp 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+17
84.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 17 yds to the Temp 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.3%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds for a TD TEMPLE Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Adonicas Sanders) declined, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5TD6 plays · 33 yds · 2:3987% → 89%
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
87.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for no gain to the Temp 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5012% → 17%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 6 yds to the Temp 31Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
87.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 9 yds to the Temp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
87.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 16 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
87.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 15 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+11
86.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 11 yds to the Houst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
86.8%
SAYDEE, Edward rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the HOU16 (CHEEKS, Trimarcus;AJIJOLAIYA, Hakeem). PENALTY TEM Holding on QUARSHIE, Wisdom enforced 10 yards from the HOU18 to the HOU28. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 20
OPP 28
-6
87.2%
E.J. Warner run for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 34 E.J. Warner fumbled, recovered by Temp E.J. WarnerSimilar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 26
OPP 34
+15
87.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 15 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+12
87.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 12 yds to the Houst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
83.2%
Mackenzie Morgan run for 10 yds for a TD, (Camden Price PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4884% → 82%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
84.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 2 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-5
84.2%
Clayton Tune sacked by Lancine Turay for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+11
83.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 11 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
82.0%
WARNER, E.J. pass to the left incomplete intended for SANDERS, Adonicas thrown to the HOU36. PENALTY HOU Offsides on JONES, D'Anthony declined HOU Pass Interference on EMERY, Jalen enforced 15 yards to the HOU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8TD3 plays · 61 yds · 1:0519% → 29%
Q2 4:04
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+43
81.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 43 yds to the Houst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 1:5075% → 72%
TEMDrive 10END OF HALF7 plays · 18 yds · 1:0128% → 31%
Q2 0:50
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+7
71.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 7 yds to the Temp 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11TD3 plays · 72 yds · 1:1272% → 84%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
71.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 17 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12DOWNS8 plays · 37 yds · 2:2219% → 21%
HOUDrive 13TD11 plays · 62 yds · 5:2281% → 90%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
80.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 6 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+7
81.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 7 yds to the Temp 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+4
82.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 4 yds to the Temp 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 6
OPP 17
-10
82.7%
TUNE, Clayton scrambles to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the TEM9 (MAGEE, Jordan), out of bounds. PENALTY HOU Holding on FREEMAN, Jack enforced 10 yards from the TEM17 to the TEM27 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+12
81.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 12 yds to the Temp 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
89.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 10 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14TD13 plays · 70 yds · 4:3812% → 31%
Q3 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
87.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 15 yds to the Temp 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
87.0%
WARNER, E.J. pass to the left incomplete intended for ANDERSON JR., Amad thrown to the HOU30. PENALTY HOU Pass Interference on GRIFFIN-TAYLOR, Demarcus enforced 15 yards to the HOU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+4
86.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 4 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 5
OPP 35
-1
86.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+6
87.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 6 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
85.4%
WARNER, E.J. scrambles up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the HOU21 (JONES, D'Anthony). PENALTY TEM Holding on FAMINU, James enforced 10 yards from the HOU24 to the HOU34 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+16
86.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 16 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+13
85.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 13 yds to the Houst 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
69.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 5 yds for a TD, (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15TD9 plays · 77 yds · 3:1575% → 89%
Q3 1:04
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+15
73.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for 15 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+5
78.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 5 yds to the Temp 10Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
89.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 10 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16FG12 plays · 71 yds · 4:0212% → 23%
Q4 12:49
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+26
89.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 26 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
86.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 10 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+7
87.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 7 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+8
86.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 8 yds to the Houst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17FUMBLE6 plays · 39 yds · 2:2188% → 90%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
87.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 2 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+9
88.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 9 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+2
90.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 2 yds Stacy Sneed fumbled, recovered by Temp Kobe WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18TD14 plays · 73 yds · 5:0021% → 75%
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
79.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 12 yds to the Temp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+11
76.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 11 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
74.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 19 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+11
81.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 11 yds to the Houst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
77.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 6 yds to the Houst 7Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 1
OPP 4
-2
77.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 6Similar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+6
25.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 6 yds for a TD, (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19TD6 plays · 71 yds · 0:4245% → 98%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
45.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 12 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+12
46.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 12 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+44
98.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 44 yds for a TD, (C. Tune Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20END OF GAME6 plays · 50 yds · 0:4010% → 15%
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
90.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 12 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
89.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
50
+16
89.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 16 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
85.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 9 yds to the Houst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:40
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 44 yds for a TD, (C. Tune Run For Two-point Conversion)
+54.9
TD · Q4 1:22
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 6 yds for a TD, (Camden Price KICK)
-52.5
TD · Q3 1:11
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 5 yds for a TD, (Camden Price KICK)
-16.4