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ECU

East Carolina 25 at Cincinnati 27

CIN
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2022 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:41 · Mason Fletcher punt for 47 yds , Malik Fleming returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 107Home team on offense+6.7Pregame prior+3.1Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor+2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:34: Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 76 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK) — CIN win probability +9.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:03: C.J. Johnson 72 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Andrew Conrad Kick) — ECU win probability +5.6 pts (now 30%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:06: Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +15.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:02: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ECU win probability +21.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 9:42: Ryan Coe 21 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +11.2 pts (now 71%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ECU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 11:41CIN 4th & 15 at CIN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:09ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:14ECU 4th & 15 at CIN 29, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:18ECU 4th & 13 at CIN 28, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:50ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 30, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:45ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 35, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:48CIN 4th & 8 at ECU 19, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    67.7%−5.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:42ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 36, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:41CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 38, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:43ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 35, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:37CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 21, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−3.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:06CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 41, down 1
    Close callPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:33ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−1.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:42CIN 4th & 3 at ECU 3, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.4%−1.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    36.0%−20.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:01ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 44, down 2
    Close callPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:12CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 16, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−4.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:33ECU 4th & 12 at ECU 44, down 2
    Close callWent for it · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.5%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:44ECU 4th & 8 at CIN 41, down 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.2 ptsWent for it · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%−2.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    28.0%
    32% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−8.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:06CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 47, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−1.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 2:57CIN Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:34CIN Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:34CIN Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:03ECU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:06ECU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:02ECU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    49.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1FUMBLE
8 plays · 5 yds · 3:1458% → 58%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
58.3%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+3
58.3%
Charles McClelland run for 3 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+7
58.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 7 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
58.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 3 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+2
58.4%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 5
OWN 34
-10
58.4%
Ben Bryant sacked by Chad Stephens for a loss of 10 yards to the Cincy 24Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 15
OWN 24
+2
58.2%
Mason Fletcher punt for 43 yds , Malik Fleming returns for 2 yds to the ECaro 35 Malik Fleming fumbled, recovered by ECaro Malik FlemingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2842% → 42%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
58.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
58.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+3
58.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 3 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
58.5%
Luke Larsen punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3SF
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:1959% → 58%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
58.5%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the Cincy 9Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 9
-9
57.9%
Ben Bryant sacked by Jeremy Lewis and Elijah Morris for a loss of 9 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 6:0642% → 44%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
58.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 24Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+11
57.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 11 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
57.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 1 yd to the ECaro 36Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+24
57.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 24 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
56.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
56.9%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for no gain to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+16
57.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 16 yds to the Cincy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
56.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 7
OPP 21
-4
56.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 11
OPP 25
-10
56.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 21
OPP 35
+6
57.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 6 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 15
OPP 29
+47
56.5%
Andrew Conrad 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6MISSED FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 4:2340% → 40%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
59.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 11 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
59.0%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+7
58.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 7 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
58.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+14
58.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 14 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
58.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+14
58.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 14 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
57.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
57.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+2
58.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 2 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 8
OPP 23
-5
59.2%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+45
60.3%
Andrew Conrad 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:2660% → 66%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
60.1%
Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
60.0%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+11
59.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 11 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
61.1%
Ryan Montgomery run for 5 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
61.6%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+55
65.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 55 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:3833% → 31%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
67.6%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ECaro 18Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+12
68.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 12 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 9:50
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
68.7%
Luke Larsen punt for 43 yds, downed at the Cincy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3868% → 68%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
67.5%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+19
67.3%
Corey Kiner run for 19 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
68.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Cincy 31Similar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 25
OWN 31
0
67.6%
Ben Bryant pass intercepted Jireh Wilson return for no gain to the ECaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1132% → 30%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
67.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 29Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+6
68.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 6 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
68.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
69.6%
Luke Larsen punt for 41 yds, downed at the Cincy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11TD
1 play · 76 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
78.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 76 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1124% → 30%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.9%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 6 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
75.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-5
75.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+72
70.3%
C.J. Johnson 72 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Andrew Conrad Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 4:0270% → 77%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
70.0%
Charles McClelland run for 17 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
71.4%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
71.3%
Charles McClelland run for 3 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+11
70.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 11 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
71.8%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
71.7%
Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+11
71.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 11 yds to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
72.8%
Ben Bryant run for 2 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
73.4%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
72.4%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+37
76.5%
Ryan Coe 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:4625% → 23%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
75.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 6 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
74.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
74.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
75.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
76.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
76.7%
Luke Larsen punt for 37 yds, downed at the Cincy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:3077% → 78%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
77.2%
Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
77.5%
Charles McClelland run for 3 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 4:4523% → 35%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
77.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 19 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
76.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+9
76.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 9 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
76.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 9 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+20
76.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 20 yds to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
75.1%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the Cincy 17Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+6
75.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 6 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+2
77.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 2 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+5
80.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (5 Yards) to the Cincy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
64.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:5570% → 69%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
69.8%
Charles McClelland run for no gain to the Cincy 36Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
69.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 9 yds to the Cincy 45Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-2
71.2%
Corey Kiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 43Similar
Q3 7:51
4TH & 3
OWN 43
-5
70.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 8
OWN 38
-2
68.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 47 yds , Malik Fleming returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:5429% → 28%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
70.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+16
71.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 16 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
70.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
70.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+3
71.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 3 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
72.0%
Luke Larsen punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5970% → 68%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
70.4%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
70.2%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
68.9%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:37
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
68.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 47 yds, downed at the ECaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:3129% → 54%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
71.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+28
72.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 28 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
68.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 6 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+3
66.6%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+1
68.7%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
67.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (Bryon Threats) to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
45.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:1953% → 56%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
52.6%
Charles McClelland run for no gain to the Cincy 14Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
52.4%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+19
50.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 19 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
53.6%
Ryan Montgomery run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 32Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 32
-3
52.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 14
OWN 29
+12
50.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 12 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
55.5%
Mason Fletcher punt for 56 yds, downed at the ECaro 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:2747% → 47%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+23
52.6%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 23 yds to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
50.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
50.7%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q4 12:39
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
51.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:33
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
53.3%
Luke Larsen punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 2:4257% → 71%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
57.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 9 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
58.5%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
58.8%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+25
58.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 10 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
61.9%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+14
61.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 14 yds to the ECaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
61.9%
Ryan Montgomery run for 5 yds to the ECaro 5Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
61.9%
Evan Prater run for 2 yds to the ECaro 3Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
59.6%
Evan Prater pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
70.8%
Ryan Coe 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:3333% → 34%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.9%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for no gain to the ECaro 25Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 8 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
65.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
65.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
65.8%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+5
66.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 7:08
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
62.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
66.2%
Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3969% → 72%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
69.4%
Ryan Montgomery run for 5 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 5
OWN 16
0
73.9%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 5
OWN 16
0
72.8%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:12
4TH & 5
OWN 16
0
71.6%
Mason Fletcher punt for 49 yds , Malik Fleming returns for no gain to the ECaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 24 yds · 4:1133% → 31%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
66.7%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECaro 36Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
66.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+5
64.3%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 5 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
66.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
67.8%
Holton Ahlers run for no gain to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+8
69.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 8 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 2
OPP 46
-10
66.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 12
OWN 44
+13
73.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 13 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
64.0%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
64.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
69.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:1964% → 94%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
64.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
85.3%
Ryan Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
86.1%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+1
91.3%
Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 0:06
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
94.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
86.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 7 yds to the ECaro 20 lat. to C.J. Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:02
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jaylen Johnson for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-21.5
TD · Q3 10:06
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)
-15.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com