Try the model
TLSA

Tulsa 10 at Memphis 26

MEM
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2022 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGFGTDFGEnd of GameFG—MEM 99.3%Chris Howard 32 Yd Field GoalAWAY 10 - HOME 26 · Q4 0:45
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:45 · Chris Howard 32 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 175Home team on offense+31.7Pregame prior+0.3Score differential+14.1Garbage-time factor+14.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+19.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+8.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 6:36: Chris Howard 49 Yd Field Goal — MEM win probability +1.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:56: Asa Martin 3 Yd Run (Chris Howard Kick) — MEM win probability +5.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Chris Howard 31 Yd Field Goal — MEM win probability +2.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:32: Chris Howard 44 Yd Field Goal — MEM win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:27: Keylon Stokes 13 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Zack Long Kick) — TLSA win probability +4.6 pts (now 5%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 11TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 11:03TLSA 4th & 6 at MEM 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:02TLSA 4th & 17 at TLSA 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:36MEM 4th & 6 at TLSA 31, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.2%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:32TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:46TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:41MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:55MEM 4th & 5 at TLSA 44, up 14
    Close callPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−1.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:30TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:21MEM 4th & 23 at midfield, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−2.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:06TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:00MEM 4th & 3 at MEM 43, up 14
    Close callPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00MEM 4th & 5 at TLSA 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    79.5%−4.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:13TLSA 4th & 15 at TLSA 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:18MEM 4th & 2 at TLSA 44, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%−2.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:05TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 19, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:32MEM 4th & 12 at TLSA 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−2.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:00TLSA 4th & 6 at MEM 20, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−2.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:44MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 45, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:59TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 29, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:39TLSA 4th & 10 at MEM 23, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−1.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:15MEM 4th & 1 at TLSA 37, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    94.8%−1.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−1.7
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:45MEM 4th & 4 at TLSA 14, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.1
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TLSA made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 10:09MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 5:27TLSA Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.2%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2771% → 71%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
71.3%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
71.2%
Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
71.2%
Henigan, Seth pass complete to Scates, Joseph for 8 yards to the MEMPHIS43, PENALTY MEMPHIS holding (Prieskorn, Caden) 10 yards to the MEMPHIS25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+6
71.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 6 yds Caden Prieskorn fumbled, forced by Tyon Davis, recovered by Tulsa Tyon DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:1429% → 30%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
70.9%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
70.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 6 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+16
70.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 16 yds to the Memph 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
70.5%
Deneric Prince run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 10Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
70.4%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the Memph 6Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
70.3%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q1 11:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
70.3%
Zack Long 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:4370% → 71%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
70.4%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
70.3%
Jevyon Ducker run for 2 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+68
70.9%
Javon Ivory 68 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Chris Howard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 2:0129% → 28%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.1%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.1%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
71.3%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Tautai Li'o Marks) to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-6
71.3%
Davis Brin sacked by Jaylon Allen for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q1 8:02
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+25
71.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 42 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for 25 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1672% → 73%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
71.7%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-1
71.7%
Seth Henigan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
71.5%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Gabriel RogersSimilar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
72.8%
Chris Howard 49 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4828% → 27%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.5%
Jordan Ford run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
72.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 5 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
72.5%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 34 Kenney Solomon II run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+19
72.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 54 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for 19 yds to the Memph 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:0473% → 79%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
73.1%
Jevyon Ducker run for 1 yd to the Memph 32Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+15
73.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 15 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
74.0%
Jevyon Ducker run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 43Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+10
73.3%
Henigan, Seth pass sacked for loss of 4 yards to the MEMPHIS39 (Goodlow, Anthony), PENALTY TULSA holding (Carlisle, Tyree) 10 yards to the TULSA47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
73.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 7 yds to the Memph 40 MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cameron Wright) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 13
50
+15
73.5%
Henigan, Seth pass incomplete to Rogers, Gabriel, PENALTY TULSA pass interference 15 yards to the TULSA35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
74.2%
Seth Henigan run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+2
74.2%
Seth Henigan run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+28
74.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 28 yds to the Tulsa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
79.4%
Asa Martin 3 Yd Run (Chris Howard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:5423% → 22%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
77.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 8 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-10
76.7%
Prince, Deneric rush for no gain to the TULSA43, PENALTY TULSA holding (Wade, Dillon) 10 yards to the TULSA33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
77.5%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
77.7%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q2 13:46
4TH & 12
OWN 33
+11
78.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 45 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for 11 yds to the Memph 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:5779% → 79%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
79.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 13 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
80.2%
Asa Martin run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 6
50
-5
80.6%
Seth Henigan sacked by Anthony Goodlow for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
80.0%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Joseph ScatesSimilar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
79.4%
Joe Doyle punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:1422% → 21%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
78.4%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
78.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 13 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
78.5%
Davis Brin run for no gain to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
78.7%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
79.1%
Davis Brin pass intercepted Tyler Murray return for no gain to the Tulsa 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1582% → 81%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
81.5%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+2
81.7%
Jevyon Ducker run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
81.5%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
80.9%
Joe Doyle punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kamdyn Benjamin at the Tulsa 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1020% → 19%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
80.2%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+1
80.3%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
80.6%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q2 7:30
4TH & 6
OWN 13
+17
80.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 41 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for 17 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:0482% → 81%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
81.9%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-13
82.0%
Seth Henigan sacked by Justin Wright for a loss of 13 yards to the 50 yard line Seth Henigan fumbled, forced by Justin Wright, recovered by Memph Matt Dale , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 23
50
0
81.3%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q2 6:21
4TH & 23
50
0
80.6%
Joe Doyle punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:0019% → 18%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
80.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 6 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+5
80.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 5 yds to the Tulsa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
81.0%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
81.1%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
81.4%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+41
81.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 41 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3982% → 82%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
82.4%
Jevyon Ducker run for 3 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
82.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+4
82.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 4 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
81.8%
Joe Doyle punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16FUMBLE
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:5519% → 19%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
81.5%
Jordan Ford run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
81.3%
Jordan Ford run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
81.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
82.1%
Jordan Ford run for no gain to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+20
82.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 20 yds to the Memph 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
81.5%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 1 yd Isaiah Epps fumbled, forced by Davion Ross, recovered by Memph Xavier CullensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17END OF HALF
11 plays · 39 yds · 1:3085% → 87%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
85.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 10 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
85.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
85.3%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Joseph ScatesSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+20
84.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 20 yds to the Tulsa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
85.5%
Seth Henigan run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
84.0%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Joseph ScatesSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+4
83.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 4 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+31
86.8%
Chris Howard 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3713% → 12%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.9%
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
87.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Deneric Prince for 1 yd to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-7
88.0%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Joel Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+3
88.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 49 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for 3 yds to the Memph 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:4988% → 91%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
88.2%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
88.1%
Jevyon Ducker run for 2 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+12
89.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 12 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
90.0%
Jevyon Ducker run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+1
91.6%
Jevyon Ducker run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
91.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
90.7%
Joe Doyle punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0311% → 10%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
88.9%
Deneric Prince run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+3
89.3%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 1
OWN 19
0
89.5%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q3 8:05
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+71
90.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 61 yds, downed at the MEMPHIS 20 MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Javon Ivory) to the Memph 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21FG
15 plays · 64 yds · 7:0292% → 99%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
92.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 7 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 3
OWN 17
0
92.4%
Asa Martin run for no gain to the Memph 17Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+8
92.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 8 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.7%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Joseph ScatesSimilar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
92.7%
Seth Henigan run for 14 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
93.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 5 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+2
93.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 2 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+16
93.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 16 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
94.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 14 yds to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
94.6%
Seth Henigan run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+2
94.6%
Seth Henigan run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+5
96.9%
Henigan, Seth pass incomplete to Ivory, Javon, PENALTY TULSA offside 5 yards to the TULSA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 6
OPP 20
-6
96.9%
Seth Henigan sacked by Bryson Powers for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 0:32
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+44
98.6%
Chris Howard 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:202% → 2%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Malachai Jones for 8 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
97.7%
Jordan Ford run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
97.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+41
97.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 41 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
97.9%
Jordan Ford run for 4 yds to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
98.0%
Jordan Ford run for no gain to the Memph 20Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
98.2%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Nick RempertSimilar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 6
OPP 20
-9
98.3%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Jaylon Allen for a loss of 9 yards to the Memph 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:5699% → 99%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
99.2%
Jevyon Ducker run for 5 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
99.2%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+12
99.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 12 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.4%
Jevyon Ducker run for 2 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+2
99.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 6
50
0
99.4%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Joseph ScatesSimilar
Q4 9:52
4TH & 6
50
-5
99.3%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Memph 45Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
99.3%
Joe Doyle punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:401% → 1%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
98.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+15
98.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Malachai Jones for 15 yds to the Tulsa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.9%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Kamdyn Benjamin for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
98.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q4 7:59
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+6
98.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 52 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for 6 yds to the Memph 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:1999% → 100%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.4%
Asa Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 24Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
99.5%
Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
99.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 12 yds Gabriel Rogers fumbled, forced by Kendarin Ray, recovered by Tulsa Tyon DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26TD
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:431% → 5%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
99.1%
Braxton, Braylon pass incomplete to Santana, JuanCarlos, PENALTY MEMPHIS pass interference (Rubin, Greg) 15 yards to the MEMPHIS23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TULSA.Similar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.0%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
99.0%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
99.2%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+10
99.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 10 yds to the Memph 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
94.6%
Keylon Stokes 13 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Zack Long Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27FG
13 plays · 32 yds · 4:0098% → 99%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
97.7%
Jevyon Ducker run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+4
97.7%
Jevyon Ducker run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+1
98.0%
Jevyon Ducker run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
98.1%
Jevyon Ducker run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
98.6%
Asa Martin run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
98.7%
Asa Martin run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
99.0%
Asa Martin run for no gain to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q4 1:16
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+2
98.9%
Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
99.3%
Chris Howard 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:301% → 1%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.2%
Deneric Prince run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.1%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 4 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:56
Asa Martin 3 Yd Run (Chris Howard Kick)
+5.4
TD · Q4 5:27
Keylon Stokes 13 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Zack Long Kick)
-4.6
FG · Q2 0:00
Chris Howard 31 Yd Field Goal
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com