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HOU

Houston 63 at SMU 77

SMU
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-11.6SMU 75.1%Clayton Tune pass complete to MatthewGolden for 42 yds for a TD, (KyleRamsey KICK)AWAY 35 - HOME 49 · Q2 1:25
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:25 · Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 42 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 80Home team on offense+9.1Score differential+3.3Garbage-time factor+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.6Pregame prior+3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:44: RJ Maryland 1 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick) — SMU win probability +13.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:16: Ben Redding 10 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick) — SMU win probability +12.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:25: Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 42 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +11.6 pts (now 25%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:17: Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +10.0 pts (now 22%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:11: RJ Maryland 3 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick) — SMU win probability +10.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q2 14:48SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:28SMU 4th & 1 at HOU 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%−1.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−4.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:34HOU 4th & 7 at SMU 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:25HOU 4th & 10 at SMU 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    10.1%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 6:55HOU 4th & 9 at HOU 45, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:28SMU 4th & 8 at HOU 43, up 21
    Close callPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    95.0%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q4 9:32HOU 4th & 4 at SMU 6, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−1.8
    average punt
  8. Q4 7:19SMU 4th & 1 at HOU 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%−1.8
    32% to make
    Punt
    94.1%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:02SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:29HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:36SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 4:57HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 2:06SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 14:53HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 11:53SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 8:43SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 6:44SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q2 4:16SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q2 1:25HOU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q2 0:36SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q3 11:17HOU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  14. Q3 8:11SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  15. Q3 1:28HOU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  16. Q4 12:52SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  17. Q4 9:32HOU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%
    45% to convert
  18. Q4 5:13SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
  19. Q4 3:37HOU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 41 yds · 1:5156% → 57%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+38
56.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to RJ Maryland for 38 yds to the Houst 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
56.4%
Tyler Lavine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 4Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
56.4%
Tanner Mordecai run for 2 yds to the Houst 2Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.4%
Ben Redding 2 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:2943% → 44%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
57.2%
Clayton Tune run for 20 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
57.1%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
57.1%
Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+9
57.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 9 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
57.0%
SNEED, Stacy rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the SMU37 (WESTFALL, Sam), out of bounds. PENALTY HOU Holding on PAUL, Patrick enforced 10 yards from the SMU45 to the HOU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
57.0%
SNEED, Stacy rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the SMU37 (WESTFALL, Sam), out of bounds. PENALTY HOU Holding on PAUL, Patrick enforced 10 yards from the SMU45 to the HOU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+55
56.4%
Clayton Tune run for 55 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5357% → 60%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
56.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 8 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
57.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 6 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
56.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 1 yd to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
56.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
56.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jayce Rogers) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
50
+2
57.2%
Velton Gardner run for 2 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+47
57.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 47 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
57.7%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 6 fumbled, recovered by SMU Tanner MordecaiSimilar
Q1 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
60.4%
Rashee Rice 6 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:3241% → 45%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
59.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 14 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
58.8%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+10
58.8%
Clayton Tune run for 10 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
58.4%
Stacy Sneed run for 5 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+14
58.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 14 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
55.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 12 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5157% → 63%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
56.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 19 yds Rashee Rice fumbled, recovered by SMU Velton Gardner for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
57.7%
Velton Gardner run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 4
50
+12
57.9%
Tanner Mordecai run for 12 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
58.0%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by D'Anthony Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 39Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+28
57.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 28 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
58.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the Houst 9Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
58.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
62.5%
Rashee Rice 9 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 2:1339% → 46%
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
61.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 21 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+27
60.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 27 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
59.8%
Stacy Sneed run for 5 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+22
54.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 22 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:5558% → 66%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
57.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+8
57.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ben Redding for 8 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
57.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 3
OWN 39
+4
56.9%
Ben Redding run for 4 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
58.5%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+1
58.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 1 yd to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+19
57.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 19 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
65.5%
Dylan Goffney 35 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:2537% → 38%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.3%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
63.4%
TUNE, Clayton pass to the left incomplete intended for DELL, Nathaniel thrown to the SMU45. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on ROBERTS, Nick enforced 15 yards to the HOU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
63.4%
TUNE, Clayton pass to the left incomplete intended for DELL, Nathaniel thrown to the SMU45. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on ROBERTS, Nick enforced 15 yards to the HOU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
62.5%
Clayton Tune pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:4566% → 74%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
65.7%
Velton Gardner run for 7 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+1
65.7%
Velton Gardner run for 1 yd to the Houst 19Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+1
65.1%
Velton Gardner run for 1 yd to the Houst 18Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 1
OPP 18
0
64.3%
PENALTY HOU Unnecessary Roughness on EMERY, Jalen SMU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on KERLEY, Jordan , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+1
64.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the Houst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
65.7%
Tanner Mordecai run for 15 yds to the Houst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
65.7%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the Houst 1Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
65.7%
Velton Gardner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 2Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.4%
Tanner Mordecai 2 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1629% → 28%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
71.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
71.8%
Clayton Tune pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:3675% → 87%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
75.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for no gain to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
74.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+21
72.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 21 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
73.3%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.9%
RJ Maryland 1 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 1:1376% → 89%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+49
75.5%
Velton Gardner run for 49 yds to the Houst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
75.9%
Velton Gardner run for 3 yds to the Houst 10Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+10
88.6%
Ben Redding 10 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:4617% → 16%
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
83.0%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+3
83.6%
Clayton Tune run for 3 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+37
84.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 37 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:4814% → 25%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
86.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 23 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
85.0%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-10
85.4%
TUNE, Clayton scrambles up the middle for a gain of 14 yards to the SMU28 (PHILLIPS, JR., Jimmy). PENALTY HOU Holding on JOHNSON, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the SMU42 to the HOU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 20
OWN 48
0
86.5%
Nathaniel Dell run for no gain to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 20
OWN 48
+10
86.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 10 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 10
OPP 42
+42
75.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 42 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 0:3381% → 93%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+27
80.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 27 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+21
83.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 21 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
83.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+11
83.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 11 yds to the Houst 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
92.8%
Ben Redding 4 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16MISSED FG
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:327% → 9%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
92.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 5 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+6
91.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 6 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
92.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 11 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
92.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 4 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+9
91.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 9 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+49
91.4%
Bubba Baxa 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 3:3711% → 22%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
89.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 21 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
89.2%
Clayton Tune sacked by Nelson Paul for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+19
89.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 19 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
88.3%
Stacy Sneed run for 9 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+9
88.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 9 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
88.4%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0683% → 94%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
83.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 18 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
83.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 11 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
83.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
83.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+18
83.3%
Tanner Mordecai run for 18 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
84.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 2 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+18
84.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 18 yds to the Houst 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
84.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the Houst 3Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
84.0%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the Houst 3Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.3%
RJ Maryland 3 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:096% → 6%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
93.9%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
93.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 4
50
0
94.0%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 4
50
-5
94.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Jack Freeman) to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
94.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2795% → 95%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
95.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
95.1%
TJ McDaniel run for no gain to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
95.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
95.0%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Peyton Sawyer at the Houst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21TD
10 plays · 89 yds · 4:005% → 15%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
95.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 12 yds to the Houst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
95.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 5 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+14
94.8%
Clayton Tune run for 14 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
94.8%
Lucas Coley pass complete to Matthew Golden for 1 yd to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+14
94.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 14 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
94.8%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+41
94.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 41 yds to the SMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
94.1%
TUNE, Clayton pass to the right incomplete thrown to the SMU0. PENALTY Before the snap, SMU Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the SMU2 to the SMU1. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.1%
Clayton Tune run for no gain to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 3:3092% → 98%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
92.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 5 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+15
92.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 15 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
93.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
93.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+5
92.7%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass up the middle incomplete intended for RICE, Rashee broken up by GREEN, Art at the HOU35. PENALTY HOU Offsides on MUTIN, Donavan enforced 5 yards from the SMU48 to the HOU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+4
92.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
93.1%
Tanner Mordecai run for no gain to the Houst 43Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+43
98.4%
Moochie Dixon 43 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:152% → 11%
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
98.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 7 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+4
98.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 4 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.2%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+18
98.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 18 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+25
98.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 25 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
98.0%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
98.0%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+6
98.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 6 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q4 9:32
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+6
89.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 6 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 4:1796% → 100%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
50
+1
95.5%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+6
97.3%
Tanner Mordecai run for 6 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+2
97.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+4
97.7%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
98.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 12 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
98.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 10 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.6%
Tyler Lavine 15 Yd Run (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:361% → 6%
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
99.2%
Clayton Tune sacked by Isaiah Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 18Similar
Q4 5:13
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+19
99.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 19 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
99.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 11 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
94.2%
Stacy Sneed run for 52 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26INT
5 plays · 47 yds · 1:436% → 6%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
94.2%
Clayton Tune run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 4
50
+6
93.9%
Clayton Tune run for 6 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
93.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 12 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+23
93.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 23 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
93.6%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27END OF GAME
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:4799% → 99%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the SMU 21Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
99.1%
Tyler Lavine run for 7 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+9
99.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 9 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SMU at SMU35 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
99.2%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SMU at SMU33 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:44
RJ Maryland 1 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick)
+13.5
TD · Q2 4:16
Ben Redding 10 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai (Collin Rogers Kick)
+12.6
TD · Q2 1:25
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 42 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com