Try the model
UCF

UCF 35 at Memphis 28

MEM
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:30 · Mitch McCarthy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Home team on offense−20.4Pregame prior−1.1Garbage-time factor−8.7Score differential−4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:18: Seth Henigan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — MEM win probability +8.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:53: Jevyon Ducker run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — MEM win probability +20.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:19: Mikey Keene pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 13 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +21.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:58: Mikey Keene pass complete to Javon Baker for 24 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +12.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:18: Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 14 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — MEM win probability +26.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 4:13UCF 4th & 22 at UCF 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:26MEM 4th & 1 at UCF 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.0%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    47.1%−0.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−3.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:50MEM 4th & 7 at UCF 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−6.8
    average punt
  4. Q3 13:36MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:33UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 3:45UCF 4th & 20 at UCF 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−7.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:08MEM 4th & 15 at UCF 39, tied
    Numbers favored punt by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.9%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    52.4%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    52.5%
    average punt
  8. Q4 8:30UCF 4th & 1 at midfield, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%−3.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:26MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−1.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:52UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:59MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:23UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:18MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:39UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:53MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:19UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:58UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.7
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:18MEM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.8%−1.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:4758% → 59%
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
42.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+7
42.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 7 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
42.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
42.3%
Xavier Townsend run for 5 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+7
42.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
50
+11
42.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 11 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
42.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+12
42.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 12 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
41.1%
RJ Harvey run for 22 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3742% → 46%
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.6%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
41.7%
Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
41.7%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Memph 40Similar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+7
42.1%
Seth Henigan run for 7 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
41.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 4 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
42.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 1 yd to the UCF 48Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+29
42.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 29 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
42.5%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the UCF 18Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+3
42.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 3 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+8
42.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 8 yds to the UCF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
45.7%
Brandon Thomas run for 7 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 1:1756% → 54%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
44.5%
Mikey Keene sacked by William Whitlow Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 17Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+6
44.7%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-10
45.3%
Mikey Keene sacked by Xavier Cullens for a loss of 10 yards to the UCF 13Similar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+6
45.7%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 49 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for 6 yds to the Memph 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:3146% → 47%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
46.1%
Seth Henigan run for 8 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+7
46.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 7 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+26
46.5%
Jevyon Ducker run for 26 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
47.4%
Seth Henigan run for 7 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 3
OPP 8
0
47.5%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+2
47.1%
Jevyon Ducker run for 2 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q1 1:26
4TH & 1
OPP 6
-1
46.6%
Brandon Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0555% → 54%
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
45.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the UCF 7Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+1
45.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 1 yd to the UCF 8Similar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 9
OWN 8
-4
46.3%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the UCF 4Similar
Q1 0:03
3RD & 13
OWN 4
0
46.3%
Mikey Keene pass intercepted Davion Ross return for no gain to the UCF 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:1049% → 49%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
48.5%
Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
48.5%
Seth Henigan pass intercepted Davonte Brown return for no gain to the UCF 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7TD
9 plays · 89 yds · 3:1254% → 62%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
45.6%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+61
45.6%
RJ Harvey run for 61 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
43.4%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+5
43.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 5 yds to the Memph 17Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+1
44.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Memph 16Similar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+5
45.0%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Cam'Ron Jackson) to the Memph 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
43.5%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the Memph 7Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
43.6%
Mikey Keene run for 3 yds to the Memph 4Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
37.6%
Isaiah Bowser pass complete to Stephen Martin for 4 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0540% → 51%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
39.6%
Henigan, Seth pass incomplete, PENALTY UCF pass interference 12 yards to the MEMPHIS37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
40.1%
Seth Henigan run for 10 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
41.2%
Henigan, Seth pass incomplete, PENALTY UCF pass interference 15 yards to the UCF38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
41.7%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+16
42.6%
Sutton Smith run for 1 yd to the UCF 32 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Walter Yates III) to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
42.6%
Seth Henigan run for 7 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+4
42.2%
Asa Martin run for 4 yds to the UCF 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
42.2%
Seth Henigan run for 2 yds to the UCF 4Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
42.2%
Asa Martin run for 3 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q2 8:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.7%
Seth Henigan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3154% → 67%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
45.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 21 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
43.7%
RJ Harvey run for 9 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+12
43.2%
RJ Harvey run for 12 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
42.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 9 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+24
33.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 24 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10MISSED FG
15 plays · 67 yds · 4:3537% → 38%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+20
37.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
50
+5
39.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+1
39.5%
Seth Henigan run for 1 yd to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+15
38.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 15 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
40.4%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
40.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+15
39.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 15 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
40.0%
Seth Henigan run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 14Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+3
39.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 3 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+3
38.6%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q2 1:50
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
38.3%
Chris Howard 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:0165% → 69%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
34.6%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 21Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
34.7%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 8 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
33.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Javon Baker for 3 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
33.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 4 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+10
33.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 10 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
32.0%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
32.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to RJ Harvey for 7 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
31.1%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12DOWNS
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:1039% → 39%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
50
+10
39.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 10 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
38.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 4 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+54
39.3%
Chris Howard 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0936% → 34%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.6%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the Memph 25Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 5 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
35.0%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q3 13:36
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+11
33.8%
Joe Doyle punt for 43 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 11 yds to the UCF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2769% → 67%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
31.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 8 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-3
31.2%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
31.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
33.1%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 5:3535% → 58%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
34.7%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+25
34.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 25 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
37.4%
Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+22
38.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 22 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
39.6%
Jevyon Ducker run for 1 yd to the UCF 24Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-1
39.7%
Gabriel Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+13
37.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 13 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
39.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 17Similar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+3
39.1%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+5
39.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 5 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+8
37.6%
Seth Henigan run for 8 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.0%
Jevyon Ducker run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:4551% → 48%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
49.1%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-1
49.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 21Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+21
51.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 21 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
46.1%
Ryan O'Keefe run for a loss of 10 yards to the UCF 32Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 20
OWN 32
0
49.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the UCF 32Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 20
OWN 32
0
51.1%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 20
OWN 32
+21
52.2%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 53 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for 21 yds to the Memph 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:3354% → 52%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
54.3%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Gabriel RogersSimilar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
53.7%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Gabriel RogersSimilar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+15
51.7%
Henigan, Seth pass incomplete to Ivory, Javon, PENALTY UCF pass interference 15 yards to the UCF49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
57.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 15 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
59.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 7 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 3
OPP 27
-15
59.4%
Martin, Asa rush for 6 yards to the UCF21, PENALTY MEMPHIS personal foul (Hassell, John) 15 yards to the UCF42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 18
OPP 42
0
55.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 18
OPP 42
+3
54.1%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
51.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:4153% → 78%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
47.1%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
50
+5
45.1%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q3 0:03
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+6
45.0%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
45.3%
RJ Harvey run for 7 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+4
43.4%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the Memph 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
43.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 15 yds to the Memph 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
43.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Memph 13Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
43.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for no gain to the Memph 13Similar
Q4 12:19
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
22.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 13 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:1530% → 31%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
29.5%
Brandon Thomas run for 11 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
30.5%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the Memph 36Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
30.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 8 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+4
32.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 4 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-12
31.3%
Seth Henigan pass intercepted Divaad Wilson return for 12 yds to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1381% → 81%
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
18.9%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
18.6%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+6
18.8%
Mikey Keene run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 1
50
0
19.3%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5927% → 24%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
26.7%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Gabriel RogersSimilar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-1
26.1%
Eddie Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 8Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 11
OWN 8
0
25.1%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Caden PrieskornSimilar
Q4 7:26
4TH & 11
OWN 8
+10
24.0%
Joe Doyle punt for 52 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:0983% → 98%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
50
+4
17.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
17.1%
Mikey Keene pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+11
17.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Javon Baker for 11 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
14.9%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 7 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+4
14.7%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
2.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Javon Baker for 24 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 1:215% → 32%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
5.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 2 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
3.9%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Joseph ScatesSimilar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+15
3.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 15 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
4.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 14 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
4.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 16 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
31.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 14 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24END OF GAME
13 plays · 32 yds · 3:1393% → 95%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
7.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
6.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
6.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 10 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
5.1%
Mikey Keene run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+19
5.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 19 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
2.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+4
4.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-2
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:18
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 14 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)
+26.9
TD · Q4 12:19
Mikey Keene pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 13 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)
-21.9
TD · Q3 6:53
Jevyon Ducker run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)
+20.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com