2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreUSF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:13 · Colin McCreary punt for 41 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:37: Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 11 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +13.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:48: Edward Saydee run for 75 yds for a TD, (Camden Price KICK) — TEM win probability +13.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:08: Edward Saydee run for 40 yds for a TD, (Camden Price KICK) — TEM win probability +14.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:51: Katravis Marsh pass complete to Holden Willis for 2 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +15.2 pts (now 35%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:22: E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 21 yds for a TD SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Daquan Evans) declined, (Camden Price KICK) — TEM win probability +16.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 3:06TEM 4th & 6 at USF 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snapGo for it41.3%−0.237% to convertField goalTheir call41.5%84% to makePunt38.3%−3.2average punt
- Q1 0:00USF 4th & 6 at TEM 27, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.4% before the snapGo for it56.3%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call56.4%62% to makePunt53.6%−2.8average punt
- Q2 15:00TEM 4th & 2 at USF 47, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call44.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt44.0%−0.7average punt
- Q2 11:26TEM 4th & 12 at USF 16, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.7% before the snapGo for it42.3%−1.121% to convertField goalTheir call43.4%81% to makePunt39.1%−4.3average punt
- Q2 4:07TEM 4th & 4 at USF 14, down 1Close callKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snapGo for it47.6%46% to convertField goalTheir call47.1%−0.484% to makePunt41.1%−6.5average punt
- Q2 3:13USF 4th & 6 at USF 26, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snapGo for it45.2%−0.839% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.9%average punt
- Q3 9:03USF 4th & 2 at TEM 43, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.8%57% to convertField goal27.8%−4.028% to makePunt29.2%−2.6average punt
- Q3 6:25USF 4th & 5 at TEM 31, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.2%41% to convertField goal25.7%−0.554% to makePunt23.5%−2.7average punt
- Q3 2:50TEM 4th & 8 at USF 17, up 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snapGo for it76.6%−1.232% to convertField goalTheir call77.8%80% to makePunt68.6%−9.2average punt
- Q4 0:34USF 4th & 12 at TEM 12, down 26Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−0.119% to convertField goal0.4%86% to makePunt0.1%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 6:30USF Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.4%97% to makeGo for two57.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:10TEM Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.6%97% to makeGo for two66.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q2 0:37USF Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call47.7%97% to makeGo for two47.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:48TEM Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.8%97% to makeGo for two67.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 13:31USF Touchdown, down 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call45.4%97% to makeGo for two45.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:08TEM Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.4%97% to makeGo for two70.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 0:51USF Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.2%97% to makeGo for two28.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 14:22TEM Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.4%97% to makeGo for two84.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:10TEM Touchdown, up 18 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%−0.497% to makeGo for two97.1%45% to convert
- Q4 6:02TEM Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUSFDrive 1TD18 plays · 75 yds · 8:3055% → 58%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+14
44.6%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Michel Dukes for 14 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
44.6%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 5 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+26
44.6%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 26 yds to the Temp 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+12
44.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Marsh,Katravis pass incomplete short left to Weaver,Xavier, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TEM Pass Interference (Hill,Dominick) 12 yards from TEM21 to TEM09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
44.6%
PENALTY USF Delay Of Game 5 yards from TEM05 to TEM10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
42.5%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 10 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2FG12 plays · 62 yds · 3:1743% → 46%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
43.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 17 yds to the Temp 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+11
44.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 11 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
44.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 11 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
44.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 14 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 14
OPP 22
+13
43.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 13 yds to the SFla 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3MISSED FG9 plays · 40 yds · 2:5855% → 55%
TEMDrive 4FG11 plays · 57 yds · 3:3446% → 47%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+18
45.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 18 yds to the Temp 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+8
45.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 8 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+6
46.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 6 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+11
47.8%
run for 11 yds to the SFla 17 fumbled, recovered by Temp E.J. WarnerSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+1
46.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 1 yd to the SFla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5INT5 plays · 34 yds · 1:5553% → 54%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6FG15 plays · 42 yds · 5:1650% → 56%
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
50.0%
PENALTY TEM False Start (Mathis,D'Wan) 5 yards from TEM44 to TEM39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+7
48.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 7 yds to the Temp 49Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+5
49.6%
PENALTY USF Offside (Logan,Tramel) 5 yards from TEM49 to USF46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+9
50.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 9 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+8
50.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 8 yds to the SFla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
51.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Darvon Hubbard for 3 yds to the SFla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4847% → 45%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8TD8 plays · 67 yds · 2:0356% → 68%
Q2 3:13
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+17
55.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 17 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9TD6 plays · 48 yds · 0:2538% → 51%
Q2 1:02
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+19
61.7%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Sean Atkins for 19 yds to the Temp 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
60.5%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Yusuf Terry for 9 yds to the Temp 11Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+11
49.2%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 11 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12TD4 plays · 80 yds · 1:1334% → 48%
TEMDrive 13TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2356% → 73%
Q3 13:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+13
56.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 13 yds to the Temp 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
58.8%
PENALTY TEM Encroachment (Baines,Zae) 5 yards from TEM46 to TEM41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+12
56.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 12 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+7
58.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 7 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14DOWNS12 plays · 30 yds · 4:3732% → 25%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15FG12 plays · 52 yds · 3:3577% → 86%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
78.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 11 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
78.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 14 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 17
OPP 37
+18
77.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 18 yds to the SFla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+4
78.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 4 yds to the SFla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16TD5 plays · 70 yds · 1:5217% → 35%
TEMDrive 17TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2969% → 90%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
68.8%
PENALTY TEM False Start (Thoman,Bryce) 5 yards from TEM25 to TEM20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-5
68.4%
PENALTY TEM False Start (Stoffel,Victor) 5 yards from TEM20 to TEM15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+61
68.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 61 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
73.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 3 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+21
89.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 21 yds for a TD SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Daquan Evans) declined, (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18FUMBLE6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5413% → 12%
Q4 12:28
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+5
88.0%
Katravis Marsh run for 5 yds to the SFla 44 Katravis Marsh fumbled, recovered by Temp Jacob HollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19TD6 plays · 44 yds · 3:1892% → 98%
Q4 12:28
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+17
92.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jordan Smith for 17 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+12
92.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 12 yds to the SFla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
98.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 8 yds for a TD, (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20FUMBLE4 plays · 14 yds · 1:304% → 4%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
95.9%
Michel Dukes pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 18 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
95.8%
Michel Dukes pass complete to Kelley Joiner Jr. for no gain to the Temp 47Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
96.2%
Michel Dukes pass complete to Kelley Joiner Jr. for 4 yds Kelley Joiner Jr. fumbled, recovered by Temp Jalen McMurraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21TD3 plays · 38 yds · 1:3898% → 100%
USFDrive 22DOWNS12 plays · 64 yds · 5:210% → 0%
Q4 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
99.8%
Byrum Brown sacked by Brenyen Scott for a loss of 4 yards to the Temp 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23Uncategorized1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:22
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 21 yds for a TD SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Daquan Evans) declined, (Camden Price KICK)
+16
TD · Q3 0:51
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Holden Willis for 2 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
-15.2
TD · Q3 11:08
Edward Saydee run for 40 yds for a TD, (Camden Price KICK)
+14.5