Try the model
SMU

SMU 45 at Tulsa 34

TLSA
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · Chapman Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Kneel down by SMU at TLS32 for loss of 4 yards.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:32: Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +15.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:00: Davis Brin run for 21 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +9.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:04: Kevin Jennings pass complete to Rashee Rice for 6 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +17.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:24: Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 50 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +8.5 pts (now 10%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:08: Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jordan Ford for 9 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +10.9 pts (now 17%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:17TLSA 4th & 28 at TLSA 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:55SMU 4th & 9 at TLSA 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    53.8%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:56TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:49SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 17, up 7
    Close callPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:29TLSA 4th & 21 at TLSA 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−1.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:29TLSA 4th & 21 at TLSA 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−1.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:00SMU 4th & 9 at TLSA 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:14TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:04SMU 4th & 1 at TLSA 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.4%−2.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−8.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00SMU 4th & 16 at TLSA 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−2.2
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    67.7%−6.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:54TLSA 4th & 1 at SMU 1, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%−2.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−8.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:07TLSA 4th & 5 at SMU 35, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    7.6%−0.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:07TLSA 4th & 3 at SMU 18, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−0.5
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−8.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:32SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:55TLSA 4th & 26 at SMU 26, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%
    6% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.3%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    7.7%−1.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:52SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 35, up 11
    Close callPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:01TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 21, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 14:48SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:12SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:37TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:49SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:54TLSA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:32SMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:00TLSA Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:04SMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:55SMU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 14:24TLSA Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 8:08TLSA Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
45.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to Rashee Rice for 75 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · -18 yds · 1:2545% → 45%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
44.9%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
44.9%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 14:42
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-10
44.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brin,Davis pass complete deep middle to Jones,Malachai for 17 yards to the TLS40 (Crossley,Brandon) PENALTY TLS Holding 10 yards from TLS23 to TLS13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:42
3RD & 20
OWN 13
-8
44.9%
Davis Brin sacked by Isaac Slade-Matautia for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q1 14:42
3RD & 20
OWN 13
-8
44.9%
Davis Brin sacked by Isaac Slade-Matautia for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q1 13:17
4TH & 28
OWN 5
0
44.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:0555% → 58%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
44.6%
Camar Wheaton run for 2 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+12
44.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Rashee Rice for 12 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
44.6%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Austin UpshawSimilar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
44.6%
Camar Wheaton run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+8
44.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 8 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
44.6%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Teddy KnoxSimilar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
44.6%
Camar Wheaton run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+23
44.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to Rashee Rice for 23 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3543% → 45%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
42.7%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
42.8%
Deneric Prince run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+22
43.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 22 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
43.2%
Deneric Prince run for 6 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
43.3%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+14
43.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Deneric Prince for 14 yds to the SMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
43.3%
SMU Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (Terrance Newman) to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
45.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 7 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:4256% → 57%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
43.6%
PENALTY SMU False Start (Thomas,Jaylon) 5 yards from SMU25 to SMU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
43.7%
Camar Wheaton run for 3 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+41
43.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Rashee Rice for 41 yds to the TULSA 36 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
42.9%
Teddy Knox run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 11
OPP 37
0
42.9%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Austin UpshawSimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+2
43.1%
Preston Stone run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+2
43.1%
Preston Stone run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q1 4:55
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
43.0%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:5944% → 43%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
43.7%
Jordan Ford run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
44.5%
Jordan Ford run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
44.3%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
44.0%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
43.8%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q1 2:56
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
43.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 43 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for no gain to the SMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0757% → 57%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
42.9%
Preston Stone run for 4 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+3
42.9%
Velton Gardner run for 3 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
43.2%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q1 1:49
4TH & 3
OWN 17
0
43.1%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:2044% → 42%
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
43.6%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
43.7%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-14
43.2%
Davis Brin sacked by Isaiah Smith for a loss of 14 yards to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 21
OWN 30
+32
41.5%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 36 , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 32 yds to the TULSA 38 SMU Penalty, Illegal Block (Velton Gardner) to the SMU 36Similar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 21
OWN 30
+32
41.5%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 36 , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 32 yds to the TULSA 38 SMU Penalty, Illegal Block (Velton Gardner) to the SMU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:4059% → 68%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
41.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Rashee Rice for 4 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+19
40.8%
Camar Wheaton run for 19 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
40.5%
Velton Gardner run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 32
0
40.3%
Velton Gardner run for no gain to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+2
40.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
40.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+6
40.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
40.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 1 yd to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+4
40.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Rashee Rice for 4 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+15
39.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Rashee Rice for 15 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 43 yds · 0:3934% → 36%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
34.2%
PENALTY TLS False Start (Wade,Dillon) 5 yards from TLS25 to TLS20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+48
34.0%
Jordan Ford run for 48 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+48
34.0%
Jordan Ford run for 48 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
35.9%
Davis Brin sacked by Junior Aho for 0 yards to the SMU 32 Davis Brin fumbled, recovered by SMU Shanon Reid , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11MISSED FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:1067% → 69%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+33
32.8%
Preston Stone pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 33 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
32.1%
Velton Gardner run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
32.2%
Velton Gardner run for no gain to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 9
OPP 34
-5
32.4%
PENALTY SMU False Start (Bissinger,Joe) 5 yards from TLS34 to TLS39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 14
OPP 39
+5
32.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Velton Gardner for 5 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 14
OPP 39
+5
32.7%
Preston Stone pass complete to Velton Gardner for 5 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+52
31.5%
Collin Rogers 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4633% → 31%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
32.6%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
33.0%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Ethan HallSimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
32.4%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
31.3%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13FG
20 plays · 43 yds · 8:1469% → 82%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
30.8%
Preston Stone pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+14
31.0%
Preston Stone run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
30.6%
Preston Stone run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
30.6%
Velton Gardner run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+5
30.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
30.6%
Velton Gardner run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
30.6%
Velton Gardner run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+2
28.0%
Velton Gardner run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+5
28.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 5 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+4
29.1%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
27.9%
Velton Gardner run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+4
27.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+1
28.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
27.9%
Velton Gardner run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-6
27.9%
Kevin Jennings sacked by Joseph Anderson for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 14
OPP 15
+2
20.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Velton Gardner for 2 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 16
OPP 17
+34
17.8%
Collin Rogers 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0623% → 31%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
22.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 9 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
23.7%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
24.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 13 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+42
24.9%
Deneric Prince run for 42 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
25.8%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
25.8%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.4%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 11:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.7%
Braylon Braxton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zack Long PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:1671% → 88%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
29.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 4 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+38
29.0%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 38 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
27.8%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
27.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+20
28.3%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Ben Redding for 20 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
27.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Jennings,Kevin pass incomplete short left to Rice,Rashee PENALTY TLS Pass Interference 8 yards from TLS10 to TLS02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
12.5%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3216% → 29%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.3%
Jordan Ford run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
16.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 3 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+20
16.3%
Davis Brin run for 20 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+28
17.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 28 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
18.8%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
18.7%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+21
28.7%
Davis Brin run for 21 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:4974% → 94%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
25.8%
Velton Gardner run for 10 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
25.6%
Velton Gardner run for 2 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+14
26.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 14 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
23.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
23.7%
Velton Gardner run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-5
23.1%
PENALTY SMU False Start 5 yards from TLS34 to TLS39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
23.7%
Velton Gardner run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+15
24.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Jennings,Kevin pass incomplete short right to Rice,Rashee QB hurried by Johnson,Brian PENALTY TLS Pass Interference (Davis,Tyon) 15 yards from TLS36 to TLS21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
23.1%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+2
23.2%
Velton Gardner run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+20
23.8%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 20 yds to the Tulsa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
22.9%
PENALTY SMU False Start 5 yards from TLS03 to TLS08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
23.1%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
5.7%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Rashee Rice for 6 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
1.2%
Elijah Chatman 23 Yd Fumble Return (Collin Rogers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:311% → 10%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.2%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
1.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass complete short left to Jones,Malachai for 8 yards to the TLS33, End Of Play PENALTY TLS Illegal Touch-Pass (Jones,Malachai). NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
1.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass incomplete short left to Stokes,Keylon PENALTY SMU Pass Interference 15 yards from TLS25 to TLS40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
1.1%
Deneric Prince run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+5
1.1%
Deneric Prince run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
50
+50
9.6%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 50 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:1794% → 95%
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
5.8%
Velton Gardner run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
5.3%
Velton Gardner run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+2
5.0%
Kevin Jennings run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 43 Kevin Jennings fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Justin WrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21TD
15 plays · 57 yds · 4:598% → 17%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
7.5%
Braylon Braxton run for 8 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+9
8.1%
Jordan Ford run for 9 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
7.9%
Jordan Ford run for 3 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+2
8.1%
Jordan Ford run for 2 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
8.3%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Jordan FordSimilar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+10
7.8%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Malachai Jones for 10 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
8.6%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
8.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 7 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
8.4%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+4
8.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 4 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
8.6%
Jordan Ford run for 4 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 6
OPP 10
-5
6.0%
PENALTY TLS False Start 5 yards from SMU10 to SMU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+6
5.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Ethan Hall for 6 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
16.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jordan Ford for 9 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3688% → 89%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.6%
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Rashee Rice for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
11.7%
Velton Gardner run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
12.2%
Kevin Jennings pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
10.7%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23MISSED FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:3711% → 7%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
10.7%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 5 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+21
11.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 21 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
13.3%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 12 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
15.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass incomplete short right to Stokes,Keylon PENALTY SMU Pass Interference (Dixon,Kelvontay) 15 yards from SMU33 to SMU18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
15.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Braxton,Braylon pass incomplete short middle to Santana,JuanCarlos PENALTY SMU Pass Interference (Rogers,Jahari) 10 yards from SMU18 to SMU08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
15.4%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
15.2%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q4 4:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
-12
8.8%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Je'lin Samuels for a loss of 12 yards to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 3:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 26
+44
7.1%
Tyler Tipton 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0392% → 95%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
8.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the SMU 27Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+7
8.4%
Tyler Lavine run for 7 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
5.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
5.2%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:514% → 3%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
3.5%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
3.4%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-2
3.3%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Jimmy Phillips Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 12
OWN 21
0
2.8%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -11 yds · 2:0196% → 97%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
4.4%
Kneel down by SMU at TLS24 for loss of 3 yards.Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 13
OPP 24
-4
4.6%
Kneel down by SMU at TLS28 for loss of 4 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 28
-4
3.2%
Kneel down by SMU at TLS32 for loss of 4 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:04
Kevin Jennings pass complete to Rashee Rice for 6 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)
-17.3
TD · Q3 9:32
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)
-15.2
TD · Q4 8:08
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Jordan Ford for 9 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)
+10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com