Try the model
ECU

East Carolina 27 at BYU 24

BYU
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2022 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:59 · Andrew Conrad 42 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Pregame prior+1.3Home team on offense−2.9Score differential−4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Blowout margin+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:01: Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 30 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +9.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:42: Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +12.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:58: Jaren Hall pass complete to Chase Roberts for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +12.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:07: Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +18.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Andrew Conrad 33 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +35.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:44ECU 4th & 9 at ECU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:23BYU 4th & 5 at ECU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:24BYU 4th & 8 at BYU 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:52ECU 4th & 2 at BYU 46, up 4
    Close callPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    40.6%−1.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:15ECU 4th & 6 at BYU 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    34.4%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:59BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:12BYU 4th & 2 at ECU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−1.9
    86% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−17.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:59ECU 4th & 11 at BYU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−3.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−18.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 6:47BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.3%−6.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:54ECU 4th & 1 at BYU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    43.4%−10.2
    89% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−36.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:26BYU 4th & 7 at BYU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−8.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:29ECU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:56BYU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:01BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:42ECU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:58BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:07ECU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:0642% → 41%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
58.3%
Jsi Hatfield run for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 16Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+1
58.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 17Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+9
58.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 9 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
58.6%
Luke Larsen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 4:1559% → 60%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
58.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+8
58.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 8 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
59.0%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+1
59.0%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the ECaro 41Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+2
59.0%
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+15
58.9%
Hall, Jaren pass incomplete, PENALTY EASTCRLINA roughing passer (Lewis, Jeremy) 15 yards to the EASTCRLINA24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
59.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+2
59.3%
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 5
OPP 19
0
59.1%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Puka NacuaSimilar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
59.5%
Jake Oldroyd 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4741% → 44%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
59.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 18 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
58.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 11 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
58.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
58.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 10 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
58.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 5 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+31
56.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 31 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5857% → 56%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.9%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Puka NacuaSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
56.3%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Puka NacuaSimilar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+28
56.1%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 55 yds , Malik Fleming returns for 28 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2644% → 44%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
56.2%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+6
56.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 6 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
55.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Marlon Gunn Jr.Similar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
56.4%
Luke Larsen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 5:5156% → 62%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
56.3%
Miles Davis run for 1 yd to the BYU 9Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+6
56.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 6 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q1 2:29
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+5
55.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 5 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
56.0%
Miles Davis run for 16 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
56.9%
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
57.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Masen Wake for 5 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+5
57.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jeremy Lewis) to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
57.7%
BYU Penalty, False Start (Harris LaChance) to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+24
56.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 24 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
58.8%
Puka Nacua run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+5
58.8%
Jaren Hall run for 5 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+24
62.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 24 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7FG
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:3339% → 43%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 26Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+51
61.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 51 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
58.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+12
58.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 12 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
58.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the BYU 5Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
58.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 6Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
59.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Marlon Gunn Jr.Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
56.7%
Andrew Conrad 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:0760% → 71%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
59.9%
Miles Davis run for no gain to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
59.8%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Puka NacuaSimilar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+14
58.9%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 14 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
60.1%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 32Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
59.7%
Jaren Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+15
58.9%
Jaren Hall run for 15 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+23
61.9%
Jaren Hall run for 23 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
71.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 30 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:0532% → 47%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
68.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Kerry King for 3 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+35
68.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 35 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
65.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 9 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+12
65.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 12 yds to the BYU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
65.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 8 yds to the BYU 1Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.1%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3360% → 59%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
59.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Masen Wake for 6 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+1
60.0%
Miles Davis run for 1 yd to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+2
59.0%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
58.6%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 71 yds , Malik Fleming returns for no gain to the ECaro 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:2542% → 43%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+9
57.7%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 9 yds to the ECaro 11Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 1
OWN 11
+5
56.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 5 yds to the ECaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5759% → 77%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
60.3%
Puka Nacua run for 11 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
61.1%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+22
61.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 22 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
63.0%
Miles Davis run for 7 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+6
62.9%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 6 yds to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
62.9%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 22Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+5
64.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 5 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+7
63.1%
Jaren Hall run for 7 yds to the ECaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
64.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 8 yds to the ECaro 2Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Chase Roberts for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4527% → 50%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
71.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 13 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+26
71.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 26 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
68.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 21 yds to the BYU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
68.2%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 5 yds to the BYU 4Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
50.1%
Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14DOWNS
15 plays · 68 yds · 7:4660% → 62%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
59.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 6 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
60.2%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
59.2%
Jaren Hall run for 3 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
60.3%
Puka Nacua run for 7 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+4
62.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
62.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 11 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
63.9%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Chase RobertsSimilar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+13
63.6%
Miles Davis run for 13 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
65.7%
Miles Davis run for 2 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+11
65.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 11 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
65.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the ECaro 19Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-1
66.0%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 20Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+8
64.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 8 yds to the ECaro 12Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 2
OPP 12
0
62.3%
Miles Davis run for no gain to the ECaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15MISSED FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 4:0745% → 46%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
54.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 9 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+10
53.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 10 yds to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
53.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 10 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
50.9%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+4
50.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+28
50.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 28 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
46.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jsi HatfieldSimilar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-1
47.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 25Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 11
OPP 25
0
49.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Shane CalhounSimilar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+42
54.5%
Andrew Conrad 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:0360% → 61%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
59.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 8 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
62.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
60.5%
Jaren Hall run for 5 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
63.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-8
62.2%
Jaren Hall run for 2 yds to the BYU 44 BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 6:52
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+10
57.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 10 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
61.3%
Jaren Hall run for no gain to the BYU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:4753% → 51%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
47.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+23
46.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 8 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, Targeting (Jacob Boren) to the BYU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
44.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 7 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+1
44.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the BYU 10Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+1
46.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the BYU 9Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & 1
OPP 9
0
48.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the BYU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2258% → 55%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
58.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Masen Wake for 4 yds to the BYU 13Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+4
58.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 2
OWN 17
0
56.6%
Jaren Hall pass incomplete to Masen WakeSimilar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 2
OWN 17
-5
55.0%
BYU Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the BYU 12Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 7
OWN 12
0
54.7%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 50 yds, downed at the ECaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19END OF GAME
14 plays · 46 yds · 2:2051% → 95%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
48.8%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+6
46.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 6 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
45.6%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 8 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+5
41.4%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 5 yds to the BYU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
41.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
42.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+2
44.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 2 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+15
47.3%
Ahlers, Holton pass incomplete to Winstead, Isaiah, PENALTY BYU pass interference (Hayes, Kaleb) 15 yards to the BYU22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN EASTCRLINA.Similar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
38.6%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+4
39.1%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+33
4.9%
Andrew Conrad 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Andrew Conrad 33 yd FG GOOD
-35.9
TD · Q3 7:07
Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)
-18.1
TD · Q2 2:42
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)
-12.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com