Try the model
CIN

Cincinnati 21 at UCF 25

UCF
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGSAFETYTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+55.7UCF 95.8%RJ Harvey run for 17 yds for a TD,(Colton Boomer KICK)AWAY 21 - HOME 25 · Q4 0:48
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:48 · RJ Harvey run for 17 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 180Home team on offense+25.8Pregame prior+0.1Garbage-time factor+15.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Score differential+1.1Blowout margin−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. SAFETY · Q3 7:52: Josh Celiscar Safety — UCF win probability +3.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:07: Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 14 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK) — CIN win probability +24.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:36: Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UCF win probability +29.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:04: Ryan Montgomery run for 39 yds for a TD, (Ben Bryant pass to Tyler Scott for Two-Point Conversion) — CIN win probability +58.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:48: RJ Harvey run for 17 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +55.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 5CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:19UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:21CIN 4th & 3 at CIN 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:50UCF 4th & 2 at CIN 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    55.3%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:54CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:57CIN 4th & 18 at CIN 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−1.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:57UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:19CIN 4th & 10 at UCF 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:36CIN 4th & 2 at UCF 43, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−2.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%−1.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:21UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 11, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:13CIN 4th & 6 at UCF 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−1.8
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−5.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:03CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:17UCF 4th & 11 at CIN 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−1.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:33CIN 4th & 14 at CIN 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−8.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:02CIN 4th & 30 at CIN 5, down 4
    Numbers favored punt by 4.5 ptsWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%−4.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:00UCF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:07CIN Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:36UCF Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    78.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    79.2%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:04CIN Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    57.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    57.6%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:48UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:2159% → 59%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
59.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 19 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
59.4%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 4
50
-1
59.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 13:27
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
59.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
59.4%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4441% → 40%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
59.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 7 yds to the Cincy 18Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+1
59.4%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the Cincy 19Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 2
OWN 19
-1
59.5%
Charles McClelland run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 18Similar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 3
OWN 18
+8
59.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 51 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 8 yds to the UCF 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:1560% → 60%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
59.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 12 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
60.0%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 17 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
60.2%
Johnny Richardson run for 16 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
60.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
60.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
60.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+5
59.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 8Similar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+26
60.3%
Colton Boomer 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4240% → 39%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
60.1%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the Cincy 36Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
60.2%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
60.5%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+47
60.8%
Mason Fletcher punt for 47 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5TD
12 plays · 84 yds · 4:4060% → 65%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
60.1%
RJ Harvey run for 9 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 1
OWN 25
-1
60.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 24Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+4
59.9%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+25
60.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 25 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
61.3%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Justin Wodtly for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 13
50
+12
60.8%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 12 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+3
61.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
61.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 36Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+5
61.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 5 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+5
61.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 26Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+26
64.6%
RJ Harvey run for 26 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:4736% → 35%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
63.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 30 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
63.1%
Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
63.3%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:08
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-9
63.9%
Ben Bryant sacked by Tre'mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 47Similar
Q1 0:57
4TH & 18
OWN 47
0
65.4%
Mason Fletcher punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the UCF 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:4764% → 64%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+19
63.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 19 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
64.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+5
64.9%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 5 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
65.4%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-2
65.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
64.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for no gain to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
64.2%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:2634% → 35%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
66.4%
Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+32
65.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 32 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
64.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 12 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
63.8%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-5
63.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 15
OPP 36
0
65.8%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 15
OPP 36
+21
66.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 21 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
64.1%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
64.5%
Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
66.2%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Jadon ThompsonSimilar
Q2 9:19
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
65.1%
Ryan Coe 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:4567% → 67%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
66.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
66.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 12 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
68.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Stephen MartinSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
68.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-6
67.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds to the UCF 48 UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 16
OWN 33
0
66.7%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:2233% → 32%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
66.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 18 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
65.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 3 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
65.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Blue Smith for 3 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+2
65.6%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
68.0%
Mason Fletcher punt for 40 yds, downed at the UCF 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5769% → 66%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
69.1%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+2
69.1%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+1
67.0%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 11Similar
Q2 2:21
4TH & 2
OWN 11
+15
66.2%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 52 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 15 yds to the UCF 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 1:5934% → 35%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
66.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Charles McClelland for 1 yd to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+4
66.7%
Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+8
66.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Nick Mardner for 8 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
65.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 8 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+8
64.5%
Charles McClelland run for 8 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
64.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 4 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
66.0%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
67.2%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+33
65.3%
Ryan Coe 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.7%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4236% → 34%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
63.1%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
64.2%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:03
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
65.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the UCF 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15FUMBLE
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:3765% → 70%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
64.8%
Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+21
65.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 21 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
67.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Javon Baker for 7 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+1
67.4%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+1
67.0%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the Cincy 36Similar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+5
68.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
71.2%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 8 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+1
71.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 1 yd to the Cincy 22Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+4
70.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
71.4%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
71.4%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Javon Baker for 9 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+7
70.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the Cincy 2 Isaiah Bowser fumbled, recovered by Cincy Deshawn PaceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16SF
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:0433% → 30%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
66.6%
Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the Cincy 6Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+2
67.0%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 4
OWN 8
0
70.5%
Josh Celiscar SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17FUMBLE
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:5771% → 76%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
71.3%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+6
71.2%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 6 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+7
72.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
74.3%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
73.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+10
71.8%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Javon Baker for 10 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
74.9%
Mikey Keene run for 9 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+2
75.9%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
76.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Alec Holler for 12 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
76.2%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 5
OPP 14
-2
76.3%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 16 RJ Harvey fumbled, recovered by Cincy Dontay CorleoneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 3:2331% → 56%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
69.0%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+14
69.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 14 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
68.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 12 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
66.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 21 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
64.6%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
64.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q3 0:59
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+7
69.9%
Charles McClelland run for 7 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
67.6%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+10
68.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 10 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
43.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 14 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 1:4351% → 50%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.2%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+21
51.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 21 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
56.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 10 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
56.8%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 42Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 11
OPP 42
0
55.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 11
OPP 42
0
52.6%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
49.5%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:3551% → 50%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+17
49.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 17 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
48.1%
Charles McClelland run for 3 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+7
47.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 7 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
46.1%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-4
47.0%
Ben Bryant sacked by Anthony Montalvo and Jason Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 14
OWN 32
0
50.3%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:33
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
50.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the UCF 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 5:2450% → 91%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
50.0%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
50.8%
Mikey Keene pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+12
51.9%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Javon Baker for 12 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
56.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 11 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
58.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 11 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
59.8%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
59.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 10 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
62.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+6
62.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
62.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cincy 15Similar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 5
OPP 15
0
62.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the Cincy 15Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+9
62.1%
RJ Harvey run for 9 yds to the Cincy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
62.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Cincy 3Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:2816% → 79%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.2%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
84.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 12 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.9%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+16
84.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 16 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
80.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Nick Mardner for 8 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
79.2%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+39
20.6%
Ryan Montgomery run for 39 yds for a TD, (Ben Bryant pass to Tyler Scott for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5734% → 96%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
34.3%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
33.6%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 18 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+26
37.5%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 26 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
44.1%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 32Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+12
40.0%
Mikey Keene pass complete to Javon Baker for 12 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
42.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+17
95.8%
RJ Harvey run for 17 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:3310% → 8%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-20
90.1%
Ben Bryant sacked by K.D. McDaniel for a loss of 20 yards to the Cincy 5 Ben Bryant fumbled, recovered by Cincy Ben Bryant , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 30
OWN 5
0
91.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 30
OWN 5
0
91.8%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 30
OWN 5
+9
92.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 9 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:04
Ryan Montgomery run for 39 yds for a TD, (Ben Bryant pass to Tyler Scott for Two-Point Conversion)
-58.7
TD · Q4 0:48
RJ Harvey run for 17 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)
+55.7
TD · Q4 4:36
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+29.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com