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USF

South Florida 27 at Houston 42

HOU
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:52 · Katravis Marsh pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Pregame prior+27.8Home team on offense+4.4Score differential+1.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:46: Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 52 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +4.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:55: Clayton Tune pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for 12 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +5.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:14: Michel Dukes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +9.3 pts (now 19%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:48: Stacy Sneed run for 12 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +5.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:57: Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 28 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 0 of 3USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 13:02USF 4th & 10 at USF 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:16HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:13USF 4th & 5 at HOU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:52USF 4th & 9 at HOU 33, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    15.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:09USF 4th & 6 at USF 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:58HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 25, up 14
    Close callPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:58USF 4th & 3 at HOU 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%−0.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:25USF 4th & 8 at USF 49, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:22USF 4th & 10 at HOU 31, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:48HOU 4th & 11 at USF 34, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:43HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:48USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:34USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:26HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:46HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:55HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:14USF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:48HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:57HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:05USF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5810% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
90.2%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 18 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
90.2%
Brian Battie run for 6 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
-6
90.2%
Jimmy Horn Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
90.2%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
89.7%
Colin McCreary punt for 41 yds , Jalen Emery returns for no gain to the Houst 43 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Kick Catch Interference on ROBINSON, TJ enforced (-15 Yards) to the Houst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 3:1990% → 90%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
89.6%
Clayton Tune run for 8 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+16
89.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 16 yds Nathaniel Dell fumbled, recovered by Houst for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
89.7%
Brandon Campbell run for 13 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+26
89.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 26 yds to the SFla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
89.8%
Brandon Campbell run for 1 yd to the SFla 1Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.8%
Brandon Campbell run for no gain to the SFla 1Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 1 yd for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:4811% → 13%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
89.4%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 1 yd to the SFla 16Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+19
89.4%
run for 19 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
89.3%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the SFla 40Similar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+5
89.2%
MARSH, Katravis scrambles up the middle for a loss of 14 yards to the USF26, End of Play. PENALTY HOU Offsides on CEASER, Nelson enforced 5 yards from the USF40 to the USF45 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+37
89.2%
Brian Battie run for 37 yds to the Houst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
89.0%
Brian Battie run for 5 yds to the Houst 13Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
87.1%
Brian Battie run for 13 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3288% → 87%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.7%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
87.7%
Stacy Sneed run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 23Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
87.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 11 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+6
87.0%
Laine Wilkins punt for 48 yds , Xavier Weaver returns for 6 yds to the SFla 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 1:4213% → 16%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+30
87.1%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 30 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
86.6%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Brian Battie for 10 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
86.6%
MARSH, Katravis pass to the left incomplete intended for HORN JR., Jimmy thrown to the HOU16. PENALTY HOU Holding on GREEN, Art enforced 10 yards from the HOU36 to the HOU26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
85.9%
Brian Battie run for 6 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+20
83.7%
Brian Battie run for 20 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 3:0085% → 87%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
84.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 8 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+5
85.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 5 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
84.9%
Brandon Campbell run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 5
50
+32
85.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 32 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
85.5%
Brandon Campbell run for 5 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+5
85.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 5 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
86.8%
Stacy Sneed run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7MISSED FG
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:4715% → 17%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
85.0%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
84.9%
MARSH, Katravis pass to the left incomplete intended for HORN JR., Jimmy thrown to the USF26. PENALTY HOU Personal Foul on ROGERS, Jayce enforced 15 yards from the USF29 to the USF44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
84.4%
Michel Dukes run for 1 yd to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+29
84.4%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 29 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
83.9%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
0
83.9%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+2
84.3%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+31
83.4%
Spencer Shrader 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:2785% → 88%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
84.7%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+9
84.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 9 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+1
84.7%
Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
84.8%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+7
83.5%
Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+10
83.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 10 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
87.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 52 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:5413% → 12%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
87.0%
run for 2 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
86.9%
K'Wan Powell run for 3 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+31
87.1%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Brian Battie for 31 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
85.6%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for no gain to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
85.6%
Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the Houst 33Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 9
OPP 33
0
86.5%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 9
OPP 33
0
87.6%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10TD
14 plays · 67 yds · 5:5788% → 93%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
87.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 4 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+13
88.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
50
+17
88.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 17 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
88.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 1 yd to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+7
88.7%
Stacy Sneed run for 7 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+4
88.4%
Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
88.8%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-10
88.5%
TUNE, Clayton pass to the right complete for 21 yards to SNEED, Stacy caught at the USF13 and advanced to the USF0, TOUCHDOWN HOU, score nullified by penalty, clock 03:24. PENALTY HOU Holding on TODD, Chayse enforced 10 yards from the USF21 to the USF31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 20
OPP 31
+17
88.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for 17 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+11
88.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for 11 yds to the SFla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
88.6%
HOUSTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cam'Ron Johnson) to the SFla 19Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
+7
87.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Brandon Campbell for 7 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
92.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for 12 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:469% → 8%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
90.9%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 1 yd to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+3
91.0%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Brian Battie for 3 yds Brian Battie fumbled, recovered by SFlaSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
91.0%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
91.6%
Colin McCreary punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Nathaniel Dell at the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.8%
[NH] Kneel down by TUNE, Clayton at HOU19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5992% → 91%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
91.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Brandon Campbell for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 16Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+8
91.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 8 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+1
91.4%
Brandon Campbell run for 1 yd to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+2
91.1%
Laine Wilkins punt for 42 yds , Xavier Weaver returns for 2 yds to the SFla 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14TD
15 plays · 65 yds · 5:449% → 19%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
90.9%
Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the SFla 36Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
90.9%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+24
91.3%
Katravis Marsh run for 24 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
90.2%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 19 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
89.5%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+6
89.5%
Katravis Marsh run for 6 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 1
OPP 12
-2
90.0%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 14Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+6
90.4%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Michel Dukes for 6 yds to the Houst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
90.5%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
90.5%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the Houst 4Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
91.1%
MARSH, Katravis pass to the left incomplete intended for BATTIE, Brian thrown to the HOU2. PENALTY HOU Pass Interference on ROGERS, Jayce enforced 2 yards to the HOU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
90.5%
Katravis Marsh run for 1 yd to the Houst 1Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.5%
PENALTY USF Unsportsmanlike Conduct on HALL, Dustyn HOU Unnecessary Roughness on WILLIAMS, Sedrick , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.2%
Michel Dukes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2687% → 95%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.3%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
87.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 11 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
87.9%
Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+15
88.5%
Stacy Sneed run for 15 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
88.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 5 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+7
88.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 7 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
89.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 21 yds to the SFla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
94.7%
Stacy Sneed run for 12 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16DOWNS
11 plays · 32 yds · 5:187% → 5%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
93.3%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-1
93.5%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 13Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+12
93.5%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 12 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.2%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Brian Battie for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
93.0%
Brian Battie run for 7 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
92.8%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 9 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+3
94.0%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 3 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
94.2%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
94.2%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
50
-1
94.2%
Katravis Marsh sacked by Atlias Bell and Mannie Nunnery for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 49Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 8
OWN 49
-3
94.6%
Katravis Marsh sacked by Chidozie Nwankwo for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 46 yds · 1:2896% → 99%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
96.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 8 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+10
96.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 10 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
99.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 28 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 4:351% → 1%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.0%
run for 1 yd to the SFla 26Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
99.0%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Holden Willis for 19 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.9%
Katravis Marsh pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
98.9%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Kelley Joiner Jr. for no gain to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+24
98.9%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Kelley Joiner Jr. for 24 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
98.8%
Katravis Marsh run for 1 yd to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+2
98.8%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 7
OPP 28
-3
98.9%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Kelley Joiner Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 7:22
4TH & 10
OPP 31
-8
99.1%
Katravis Marsh sacked by Latrell Bankston for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19DOWNS
14 plays · 28 yds · 5:3499% → 100%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
99.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 13 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.3%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-15
99.3%
HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Patrick Paul) to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 3 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+3
99.3%
Nathaniel Dell run for 3 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+10
99.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 10 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
99.7%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+4
99.7%
Lucas Coley pass complete to CJ Nelson for 4 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 4
OPP 27
-10
99.8%
QB Keeper COLEY, Lucas rush up the middle for a gain of 8 yards to the USF19 (GORDON IV, DJ). PENALTY HOU Holding on SYLVESTER, Trevonte enforced 10 yards from the USF27 to the USF37 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 14
OPP 37
+3
99.8%
Lucas Coley pass complete to CJ Nelson for 3 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 11
OPP 34
+1
99.8%
Lucas Coley run for 1 yd to the SFla 33 Lucas Coley fumbled, recovered by SFla Eddie KellySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 0:431% → 3%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
99.5%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Kelley Joiner Jr. for 11 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
99.6%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Khafre Brown for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 4
50
+40
99.5%
Katravis Marsh pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 40 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
99.4%
MARSH, Katravis pass to the left incomplete intended for WILLIS, Holden thrown to the HOU0. PENALTY HOU Pass Interference on EMERY, Jalen enforced 8 yards to the HOU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.7%
Chris Carter 2 Yd pass from Katravis Marsh (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:0499% → 99%
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.3%
[SG] Kneel down by TUNE, Clayton at USF46 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 12
OPP 46
0
99.3%
[SG] Kneel down by TUNE, Clayton at USF47 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 47
0
99.3%
[SG] Kneel down by TUNE, Clayton at USF48 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:14
Michel Dukes run for 1 yd for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q2 0:55
Clayton Tune pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for 12 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
+5.6
TD · Q3 3:48
Stacy Sneed run for 12 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
+5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com