Try the model
UCF

UCF 13 at East Carolina 34

ECU
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+3.1ECU 94.3%Andrew Conrad 26 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 27 · Q4 12:51
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:51 · Andrew Conrad 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Home team on offense+24.6Pregame prior−3.2Score differential+13.1Garbage-time factor+11.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:46: Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +10.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:49: Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 39 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +19.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Colton Boomer 27 yd FG GOOD — UCF win probability +3.9 pts (now 36%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:28: Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +9.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:23: Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +17.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:55ECU 4th & 7 at UCF 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:30ECU 4th & 1 at UCF 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.3%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:00ECU 4th & 10 at UCF 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:43UCF 4th & 5 at ECU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    39.7%−0.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q3 14:53UCF 4th & 1 at ECU 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.5%−3.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:47UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−2.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  7. Q4 12:51ECU 4th & 9 at UCF 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−7.0
    average punt
  8. Q4 10:36UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:09ECU 4th & 9 at ECU 44, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:36UCF 4th & 4 at ECU 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:15UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 24, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 7:46ECU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:49ECU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:28UCF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:23ECU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:21ECU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1MISSED FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:0535% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
35.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
35.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 15 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+29
35.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 29 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
35.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 8 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+9
35.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 9 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
35.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the UCF 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+2
35.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
35.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+25
37.0%
Andrew Conrad 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2INT
5 plays · 39 yds · 1:2563% → 63%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
36.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 9 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
36.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+30
36.7%
run for 30 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
36.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
36.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3FG
16 plays · 50 yds · 7:3038% → 41%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
37.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 6 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+7
37.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 7 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
38.0%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ryan Jones) to the ECaro 45Similar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 17
OWN 45
+14
37.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 14 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+3
38.0%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
38.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 2 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
38.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+7
37.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 7 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+5
37.7%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
38.2%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 6 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+3
38.2%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+4
37.9%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
38.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for no gain to the UCF 11Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
38.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the UCF 11Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
37.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
41.4%
Andrew Conrad 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4FUMBLE
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:4959% → 58%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
41.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-3
41.3%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+10
42.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 10 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
41.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 16 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
40.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 8 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-1
40.8%
RJ Harvey run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+7
41.1%
RJ Harvey run for 7 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
40.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 36Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+19
41.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 19 yds to the ECaro 20 fumbled, recovered by ECaro Jireh WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:2143% → 56%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
43.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 21 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
44.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+10
43.4%
AHLERS, Holton pass to the left incomplete intended for WINSTEAD, Isaiah thrown to the ECU45; QB hurried by JEAN-BAPTISTE, Jeremiah. PENALTY UCF Holding on BARBER, Ricky enforced 10 yards from the ECU39 to the ECU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
44.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 7 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
44.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+12
44.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 12 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
45.2%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+24
44.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Savage for 24 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
45.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
45.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 3Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
55.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 47 yds · 4:0345% → 43%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
54.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 21 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
53.4%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
52.9%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+4
53.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
52.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the ECaro 42Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-8
53.1%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by J.D. Lampley and Rick D'Abreu for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:54
3RD & 18
50
+13
58.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 13 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
56.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:5457% → 80%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
56.8%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+1
57.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 1 yd to the ECaro 33Similar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+11
56.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 11 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
58.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Isaiah Winstead) to the ECaro 39Similar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 15
OWN 39
0
57.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+3
61.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 3 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+19
60.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 19 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
80.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 39 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8FG
6 plays · 70 yds · 0:4426% → 36%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
73.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 7 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+21
72.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 21 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
71.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 5 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+37
69.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 37 yds to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
63.7%
Colton Boomer 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 4:2528% → 42%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
71.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 14 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
70.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 11 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
69.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the ECaro 49Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
70.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 8 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
68.9%
run for 1 yd to the ECaro 40Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+4
70.1%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+30
69.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 30 yds to the ECaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
67.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the ECaro 4Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
67.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the ECaro 3Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
58.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0563% → 84%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
63.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 7 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
64.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
63.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 6 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+25
64.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 25 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
66.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 11 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
66.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+5
66.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 5 yds Isaiah Winstead fumbled, recovered by ECaro Isaiah Winstead for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Corey Thornton) to the UCF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
84.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3120% → 17%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
80.0%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
78.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 4
OWN 29
-7
79.4%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Myles Berry for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 11
OWN 22
+1
82.8%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 43 yds , Malik Fleming returns for 1 yd to the ECaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 6:5685% → 94%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
85.2%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 2 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
85.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 6 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+20
85.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 20 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
85.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+9
85.8%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 9 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
85.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 4 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-1
85.9%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+14
91.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 14 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
91.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the UCF 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-7
91.6%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Tre'mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+6
91.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 6 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
94.3%
Andrew Conrad 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:096% → 5%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
93.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+12
93.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 12 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
93.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
93.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 3 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-3
93.6%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Jeremy Lewis and Myles Berry for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 31Similar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
95.3%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 3:2795% → 97%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
95.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 7 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+10
95.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 10 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
95.7%
Holton Ahlers run for no gain to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-4
95.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+5
95.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 5 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
96.5%
Luke Larsen punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15FG
15 plays · 67 yds · 3:334% → 3%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
96.2%
RJ Harvey run for 12 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
96.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 7 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 3
OWN 34
0
95.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+5
96.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
95.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 8 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
95.6%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
50
+5
95.8%
PLUMLEE, John Rhys pass to the right incomplete intended for O'KEEFE, Ryan thrown to the ECU35. PENALTY ECU Offsides on ROBINSON, Elijah enforced 5 yards from the UCF50 to the ECU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 5
OPP 45
+10
95.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 10 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
95.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+9
95.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 9 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 19
OPP 33
+15
97.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 15 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
97.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-9
97.0%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Rick D'Abreu for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+36
96.7%
Colton Boomer 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 0:0898% → 100%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
98.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+37
99.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 37 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17INT
13 plays · 62 yds · 2:371% → 1%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
99.5%
UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Samuel Jackson) to the UCF 12Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 19
OWN 12
0
99.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 19
OWN 12
+12
99.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 12 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+8
99.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 8 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
99.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 11 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
99.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Stephen Martin for 8 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+6
99.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 6 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
99.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 7 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+8
99.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 8 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+11
99.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 11 yds to the ECaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
99.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
99.8%
[NHSG] Kneel down by AHLERS, Holton at ECU11 (team loss of 0), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:49
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 39 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)
+19.9
TD · Q3 6:23
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)
+17.6
TD · Q2 7:46
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)
+10.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com