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CIN

Cincinnati 29 at SMU 27

SMU
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:23 · Ryan Bujcevski punt for 38 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Home team on offense−0.4Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.2Pregame prior−5.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:34: Charles McClelland run for 76 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK) — CIN win probability +7.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:12: TJ McDaniel run for 3 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +8.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:21: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +11.2 pts (now 44%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:26: Ryan Coe 44 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +6.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:57: Tyler Lavine 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — SMU win probability +33.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12CIN made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 13:28SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:03CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:55CIN 4th & 13 at SMU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:23SMU 4th & 11 at SMU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:50CIN 4th & 13 at CIN 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:11SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 29, down 3
    Close callPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:46SMU 4th & 20 at SMU 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:08SMU 4th & 14 at SMU 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:37CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 46, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.1%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:05CIN 4th & 5 at SMU 8, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.0%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    62.3%−3.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:38SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 32, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.5%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:38SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 45, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.6%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:20CIN 4th & 6 at SMU 34, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.2%−0.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    63.2%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:48SMU 4th & 19 at SMU 16, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−3.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:26CIN 4th & 7 at SMU 26, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−6.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:22SMU 4th & 24 at SMU 11, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−4.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:58CIN 4th & 4 at SMU 14, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.9%−0.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−8.9
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:00SMU 4th & 2 at CIN 38, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−2.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−2.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00CIN 4th & 4 at SMU 28, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    89.4%−0.5
    60% to make
    Punt
    84.3%−5.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:20CIN 4th & 14 at SMU 26, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    90.0%−3.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:20SMU 4th & 6 at CIN 40, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    6.9%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−0.9
    average punt
  22. Q4 5:09SMU 4th & 14 at CIN 16, down 15
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−3.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:38CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 28, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−1.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:33CIN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:34CIN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:12SMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:21SMU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:09SMU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.7 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.3%−1.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.0%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:57SMU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    31.4%−2.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    33.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:3244% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to RJ Maryland for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
44.0%
Camar Wheaton run for 2 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
44.0%
Camar Wheaton run for 8 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
44.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
44.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ben Redding for 7 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
0
44.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 3
OWN 49
0
44.5%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2556% → 55%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
44.4%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
44.5%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 10
OWN 16
0
44.5%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 10
OWN 16
0
44.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 84 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:4345% → 45%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
44.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
44.6%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Dontay Corleone for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
44.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2556% → 55%
Q1 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
44.3%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
44.3%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the SMU 9Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
44.5%
Ben Bryant sacked by Nelson Paul for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 13Similar
Q1 10:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
44.9%
Ryan Coe 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3245% → 45%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.7%
Camar Wheaton run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
44.8%
Camar Wheaton run for 3 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-7
44.7%
Tanner Mordecai run for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 24 Tanner Mordecai fumbled, recovered by SMU Tanner MordecaiSimilar
Q1 9:23
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
44.5%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3355% → 54%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
44.8%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
44.9%
Charles McClelland run for 6 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 4
OWN 44
-9
44.7%
Ben Bryant sacked by DeVere Levelston for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 13
OWN 35
+2
45.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 57 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 2 yds to the SMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3945% → 45%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
45.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 10 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
45.1%
TJ McDaniel run for 4 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
45.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
44.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to TJ McDaniel for no gain to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+5
44.7%
BUJCEVSKI, Ryan punt 41 yards to the CIN35, MONTGOMERY, Ryan return 16 yards to the SMU49 (BENTON, Will), clock 06:18. PENALTY CIN Running Into the kicker on SMITH, Armorion enforced 5 yards from the SMU24 to the SMU29. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
44.9%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD
12 plays · 62 yds · 5:3855% → 60%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
45.0%
Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+5
44.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 5 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
44.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 4 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-5
44.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Nick Mardner) to the Cincy 47Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+6
45.0%
Charles McClelland run for 6 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+15
44.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Nick Mardner for 15 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
44.4%
Charles McClelland run for 3 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+3
44.3%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+22
44.6%
Corey Kiner run for 22 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
44.3%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
44.3%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the SMU 1Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.7%
Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1439% → 38%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
39.4%
Camar Wheaton run for 10 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
39.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to RJ Maryland for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
39.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-9
38.8%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Jaheim Thomas for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 13:46
4TH & 20
OWN 25
+2
37.6%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 53 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 2 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
1 play · 76 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
30.2%
Charles McClelland run for 76 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:2032% → 30%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
32.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+15
32.0%
MORDECAI, Tanner sacked for a loss of 2 yards at the SMU21 (PACE JR., Ivan). PENALTY CIN Personal Foul on PACE JR., Ivan enforced 15 yards from the SMU23 to the SMU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
33.0%
Camar Wheaton run for 2 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-8
33.0%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Jaheim Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 16
OWN 32
+2
31.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 2 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 14
OWN 34
0
30.0%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 51 yds, downed at the Cincy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:3172% → 74%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
27.9%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
27.9%
Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+18
28.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Blue Smith for 18 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
27.5%
Charles McClelland run for 3 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
27.0%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+6
27.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 6 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
25.9%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the Cincy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:2530% → 39%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+43
30.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 43 yds to the Cincy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
39.0%
TJ McDaniel run for 3 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 4:0763% → 69%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.8%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
37.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 11 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
36.1%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
36.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 6 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+11
36.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Nick Mardner for 11 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
35.5%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
35.6%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
36.0%
SMU Penalty, Offsides ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
35.3%
Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
32.6%
Charles McClelland run for no gain to the SMU 8Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
32.9%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
30.7%
Ryan Coe 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 3:3932% → 43%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
31.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for no gain to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
31.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Camar Wheaton for 4 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+5
29.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to RJ Maryland for 5 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 1
OWN 32
+4
29.7%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
30.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
30.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to RJ Maryland for 8 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
30.6%
TJ McDaniel run for 1 yd to the SMU 45Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+9
30.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 9 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
31.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 12 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
32.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+11
32.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 11 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
43.2%
Camar Wheaton run for 19 yds to the Cincy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.0%
[NH] Kneel down by CIN at CIN24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17FG
11 plays · 29 yds · 4:3764% → 70%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
36.0%
Corey Kiner run for 6 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+3
35.2%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
35.4%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
35.1%
BRYANT, Ben scrambles to the left for no gain to the CIN47 (WILEY, Gary). PENALTY SMU Personal Foul on WILEY, Gary enforced 15 yards from the CIN47 to the SMU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
34.7%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-5
34.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Jeremy Cooper) to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+10
35.2%
Leonard Taylor run for 10 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
34.9%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 1
OPP 29
-5
33.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Wilson Huber) to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 10:20
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+52
30.0%
Ryan Coe 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:3231% → 28%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.5%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
30.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
29.0%
PENALTY SMU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on RICE, Rashee CIN Unsportsmanlike Conduct on PACE JR., Ivan , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
29.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
28.4%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 39 ydsSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
28.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Will Pauling) to the Cincy 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:2271% → 78%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+7
29.4%
Charles McClelland run for 7 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+6
28.3%
Ben Bryant run for 6 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+18
28.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 18 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
27.3%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
27.6%
Charles McClelland run for 7 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 3
OPP 22
-4
28.1%
Ben Bryant run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+44
21.7%
Ryan Coe 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 2:0424% → 18%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
24.1%
WHEATON, Camar rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the SMU26 (THOMAS, Jaheim;CORLEONE, Dontay). PENALTY SMU Holding on BISSINGER, Joe enforced 10 yards from the SMU25 to the SMU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+6
23.8%
Camar Wheaton run for 6 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-4
23.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Camar Wheaton for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 17Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-6
22.8%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Justin Wodtly for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 11Similar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 24
OWN 11
0
21.0%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
17.9%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Gavin Gerhardt) to the Cincy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21FG
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:2482% → 88%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+1
18.3%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the Cincy 45Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+35
18.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 35 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
17.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Nick Mardner for 5 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+1
17.3%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the SMU 14Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
17.5%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
12.1%
Ryan Coe 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:5815% → 16%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.8%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
14.6%
Preston Stone run for 14 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
16.0%
STONE, Preston pass to the right incomplete thrown to the CIN38; QB hurried by PACE JR., Ivan. PENALTY CIN Personal Foul on MULLANEY, Ryan enforced 15 yards from the SMU39 to the CIN46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
17.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to Rashee Rice for 5 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+3
17.2%
TJ McDaniel run for 3 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 2
OPP 38
0
17.2%
TJ McDaniel run for no gain to the Cincy 38Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
15.8%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23MISSED FG
15 plays · 36 yds · 6:4091% → 95%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
8.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 9 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 47
-5
8.2%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Jeremy Cooper) to the Cincy 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+2
8.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 2 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+10
8.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Nick Mardner for 10 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
8.5%
Ryan Montgomery run for 12 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
8.3%
Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
8.4%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+5
8.5%
BRYANT, Ben pass to the right incomplete intended for SMITH, Blue broken up by MASSEY, Bryan at the SMU5. PENALTY SMU Offsides on LEVELSTON, DeVere enforced 5 yards from the SMU34 to the SMU29 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+1
8.1%
Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+6
9.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Chris Scott for 6 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
8.0%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the SMU 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
8.4%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 10
OPP 22
-4
4.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 14
OPP 26
+44
5.3%
Ryan Coe 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:117% → 14%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
6.5%
Preston Stone pass complete to Ben Redding for 18 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
7.1%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
7.0%
TJ McDaniel run for 4 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
7.2%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+9
7.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to Rashee Rice for 9 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
7.8%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
7.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Ivan Pace Jr.) to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
7.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
7.9%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 7
OPP 9
-7
7.7%
Preston Stone sacked by Ivan Pace Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 14
OPP 16
+16
13.6%
Preston Stone pass complete to RJ Maryland for 16 yds for a TD CINCINNATI Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3190% → 90%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
10.4%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
10.3%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the Cincy 28Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
11.2%
Ben Bryant pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:38
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
10.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 54 yds, downed at the SMU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 1:4113% → 51%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
13.0%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
12.7%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
11.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Offsides (Ivan Pace Jr.) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
13.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Roughing the Passer on JACKSON, Rob enforced (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
50
+4
16.7%
Tyler Lavine run for 4 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+15
14.2%
STONE, Preston pass to the left intercepted by HICKS, Ja'von at the CIN16 intended for DANIELS, JR., Roderick. Hicks return for 29 yards to the CIN45 (BISSINGER, Joe), clock 02:43. PENALTY CIN Pass Interference on HICKS, Ja'von enforced 15 yards to the CIN31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
16.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
16.4%
Preston Stone run for 11 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
17.1%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (Ty Van Fossen) to the Cincy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
17.1%
Preston Stone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 1Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.9%
Tyler Lavine 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 27END OF GAME
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:5085% → 94%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
15.0%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+1
14.9%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+9
15.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 9 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
14.8%
[NH] Kneel down by CIN at SMU37 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 11
OPP 37
0
14.9%
[NH] Kneel down by CIN at SMU39 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 39
0
6.1%
[NH] Kneel down by CIN at SMU41 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:57
Tyler Lavine 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+33.8
TD · Q2 0:21
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)
+11.2
TD · Q2 8:12
TJ McDaniel run for 3 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)
+8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com