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HOU

Houston 38 at Navy 20

NAVY
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:08 · Riley Riethman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nathaniel Dell at the Houst 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 84Home team on offense−13.6Pregame prior−10.0Score differential−7.3Garbage-time factor−4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:20: Daba Fofana run for 25 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK) — NAVY win probability +7.8 pts (now 34%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:18: Clayton Tune pass complete to Matt Byrnes for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +6.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:16: Jianni Woodson-Brooks 5 Yd Fumble Return (Daniel Davies Kick) — NAVY win probability +10.6 pts (now 28%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:25: Kyle Ramsey 24 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +3.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:36: Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +12.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 7HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 12:20NAVY 4th & 3 at HOU 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    34.7%−0.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−1.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 5:23HOU 4th & 3 at NAVY 6, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.4%−0.8
    91% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−6.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 0:33NAVY 4th & 8 at HOU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−3.5
    average punt
  4. Q3 13:08NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:05NAVY 4th & 8 at HOU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:54HOU 4th & 1 at NAVY 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−2.7
    85% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−11.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:25HOU 4th & 7 at NAVY 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    59.3%−9.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:57NAVY 4th & 3 at HOU 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−1.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:18HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:45NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:56NAVY 4th & 10 at NAVY 36, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:48HOU 4th & 1 at NAVY 42, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    98.6%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    98.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:06HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:29HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:20NAVY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:16NAVY Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:36HOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:56HOU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:28NAVY Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5470% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
29.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 23 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
29.8%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Christian TrahanSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
29.8%
Brandon Campbell run for 6 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+28
29.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 28 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
29.8%
Clayton Tune run for 10 yds to the Navy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
29.8%
Brandon Campbell run for 2 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
29.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 6 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2INT
8 plays · 24 yds · 4:0430% → 31%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
30.2%
Maquel Haywood run for 6 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
30.3%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
30.1%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
30.2%
Tai Lavatai sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+22
30.1%
Xavier Arline run for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
50
+1
30.4%
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
30.9%
Tai Lavatai pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:3370% → 73%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
29.7%
Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+2
29.7%
Brandon Campbell run for 2 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+4
29.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 4 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
29.7%
Stacy Sneed run for 5 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+9
29.7%
Stacy Sneed run for 9 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
29.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
26.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 11 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4DOWNS
15 plays · 45 yds · 8:0928% → 26%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
28.0%
PENALTY Navy False Start (Haywood,Maquel) 5 yards from Navy23 to Navy18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+3
28.0%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+7
27.9%
Daba Fofana run for 7 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+9
28.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 9 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
28.3%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
28.4%
Maquel Haywood run for 5 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
28.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
28.7%
Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+1
27.5%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+4
27.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
27.4%
Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+1
27.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+5
27.3%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Vincent Terrell Jr. for 5 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+2
26.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Houst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 68 yds · 0:3976% → 77%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+40
24.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 40 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
23.3%
Brandon Campbell run for 28 yds Brandon Campbell fumbled, recovered by Houst Joe HutsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:2125% → 34%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
24.7%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mark WalkerSimilar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+52
24.6%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 52 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
26.4%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+25
34.2%
Daba Fofana run for 25 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0269% → 79%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
30.7%
Clayton Tune run for 9 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
30.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Sam BrownSimilar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
30.3%
Stacy Sneed run for 5 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+31
29.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matt Byrnes for 31 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
29.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 7 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+10
29.1%
Shotgun Tune,Clayton pass incomplete short left to Carter,KeSean QB hurried by Marshall,John PENALTY Navy Holding (Gibbons,Eavan) 10 yards from Navy23 to Navy13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
29.0%
Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+2
29.0%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
29.3%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+23
27.2%
Kyle Ramsey 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matt Byrnes for 3 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8MISSED FG
16 plays · 51 yds · 4:4522% → 23%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.3%
Daba Fofana run for 7 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
23.0%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
23.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
22.7%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+23
23.4%
Maquel Haywood run for 23 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
24.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+4
24.4%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+2
24.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
23.5%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+3
23.5%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
21.7%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Vincent Terrell Jr.Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+6
22.8%
Daniel Davies 41 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Nelson Ceaser , return for 6 yds to the Houst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9END OF HALF
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:3382% → 85%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+14
17.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 14 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
16.9%
Stacy Sneed run for 6 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+6
16.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
50
0
15.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to KeSean CarterSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
50
0
16.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Sam BrownSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
50
+12
15.1%
Stacy Sneed run for 12 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5220% → 20%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.3%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
20.3%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
19.9%
Xavier Arline run for 6 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
20.0%
Riley Riethman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Nathaniel Dell at the Houst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11FUMBLE
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
18.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 9 yds Nathaniel Dell fumbled, recovered by Houst Rayuan LaneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12MISSED FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5322% → 20%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
21.8%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
22.0%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+2
21.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+47
19.8%
Daniel Davies 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -25 yds · 0:4983% → 72%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
17.3%
Shotgun Tune,Clayton pass complete short right to Carter,KeSean for 0 yards to the Hou30 (Gibbons,Eavan) PENALTY Hou Holding 10 yards from Hou30 to Hou20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 20
OWN 20
-5
17.6%
PENALTY Hou False Start (Johnson,Tyler) 5 yards from Hou20 to Hou15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 25
OWN 15
+5
28.3%
Jianni Woodson-Brooks 5 Yd Fumble Return (Daniel Davies Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 3:5172% → 77%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
27.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 18 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+35
25.9%
Stacy Sneed run for 35 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
24.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 8 yds to the Navy 14Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 2
OPP 14
0
24.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+1
25.5%
Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the Navy 13Similar
Q3 7:54
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+6
26.4%
Clayton Tune run for 6 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
24.5%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
24.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Sam BrownSimilar
Q3 7:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
25.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 5 yds to the Navy 2Similar
Q3 7:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
26.5%
PENALTY Hou False Start (Johnson,Cam'Ron) 5 yards from Navy02 to Navy07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
23.1%
Kyle Ramsey 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 2:0424% → 24%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
23.7%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+1
24.1%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Navy 36Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
23.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
24.2%
Tai Lavatai pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16TD
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:4582% → 94%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
18.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 8 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+2
18.5%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the Navy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
18.5%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
18.5%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Navy 7Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
6.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:3912% → 9%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
12.0%
Maquel Haywood run for 3 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+14
12.5%
Maquel Haywood run for 14 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
13.3%
Daba Fofana run for 8 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+2
12.2%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
11.7%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
11.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
12.5%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for no gain to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 12:57
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+2
8.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Houst 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3995% → 95%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
5.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 4 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+2
5.0%
Stacy Sneed run for 2 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
5.4%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to KeSean CarterSimilar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
4.6%
Laine Wilkins punt for 43 yds , Amin Hassan returns for no gain to the Navy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:336% → 5%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
6.4%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Kai Puailoa-RojasSimilar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
6.3%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+5
6.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+14
5.2%
Riley Riethman punt for 50 yds , Nathaniel Dell returns for 14 yds to the Houst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20TD
12 plays · 63 yds · 4:4996% → 100%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
3.9%
Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
3.8%
Stacy Sneed run for no gain to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+14
3.8%
Clayton Tune run for 14 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
3.7%
PENALTY Hou Delay Of Game (Tune,Clayton) 5 yards from Navy45 to Navy50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 15
50
+7
3.7%
Stacy Sneed run for 7 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+26
3.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 11 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (Mbiti Williams Jr.) to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
2.9%
Stacy Sneed run for no gain to the Navy 17Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
2.9%
Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the Navy 18Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+14
2.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 14 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 4 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:281% → 2%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.8%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Maquel HaywoodSimilar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
0.8%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 4 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+4
0.8%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+11
0.7%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas for 11 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
0.8%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Kroy Myers for 12 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
0.8%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Kai Puailoa-RojasSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+41
1.9%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 41 yds for a TD HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Gervarrius Owens) declined, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22END OF GAME
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:2899% → 98%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
1.1%
Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+1
1.0%
Clayton Tune run for 1 yd to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+9
1.0%
Stacy Sneed run for 9 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 0:48
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+11
2.5%
Stacy Sneed run for 11 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
2.0%
Kneel down by Houston at Navy32 for loss of 1 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:36
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 7 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
-12.5
TD · Q3 10:16
Jianni Woodson-Brooks 5 Yd Fumble Return (Daniel Davies Kick)
+10.6
TD · Q2 10:20
Daba Fofana run for 25 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)
+7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com