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MEM

Memphis 45 at East Carolina 47

ECU
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OTOT2TDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+15.4ECU 59.2%Holton Ahlers pass complete to IsaiahWinstead for 16 yds for a TD, (L.Larsen Run For Two-point Conversion)AWAY 17 - HOME 13 · Q2 0:43
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:43 · Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 16 yds for a TD, (L. Larsen Run For Two-point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialTime remainingGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OTOT2Play 67Pregame prior+7.6Home team on offense−0.4Score differential−0.8Time remaining−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:43: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 16 yds for a TD, (L. Larsen Run For Two-point Conversion) — ECU win probability +15.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 5:28: Julius Wood 47 Yd Interception Return (Andrew Conrad Kick) — ECU win probability +20.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 1:45: Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK) — ECU win probability +32.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:19: Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 13 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — MEM win probability +45.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Memph 1 — ECU win probability +17.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5MEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:41ECU 4th & 9 at ECU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:02ECU 4th & 3 at MEM 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    59.5%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−4.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:57MEM 4th & 11 at ECU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−3.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:50ECU 4th & 24 at ECU 29, down 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.8%−1.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.1%
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:06MEM 4th & 5 at ECU 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−11.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:53ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:49MEM 4th & 8 at ECU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    41.5%−3.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  8. Q4 7:52ECU 4th & 5 at MEM 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    38.2%−21.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:30MEM 4th & 3 at ECU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−12.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:37MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:45MEM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:36ECU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:43ECU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    55.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:28ECU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:45ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−1.6
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:19MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%−2.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 5:1465% → 65%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
65.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the ECaro 12Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+1
65.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the ECaro 13Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+18
65.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 18 yds to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
65.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+1
65.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 31Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+12
65.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 12 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-6
65.0%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Geoffrey Cantin-Arku and Cormontae Hamilton for a loss of 6 yards to the ECaro 37Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 16
OWN 37
0
65.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 16
OWN 37
+7
65.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 7 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q1 9:41
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
64.5%
Luke Larsen punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:0436% → 40%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 9
OWN 20
+20
64.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 20 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
64.2%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the Memph 41Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
64.3%
Asa Martin run for no gain to the Memph 41Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-5
64.5%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+48
64.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 48 yds to the ECaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
63.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 12 yds to the ECaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
60.1%
Asa Martin run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 62 yds · 4:3061% → 59%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
61.3%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
61.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+23
61.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 23 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
62.1%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 1 yd to the Memph 38Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+30
62.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 30 yds Isaiah Winstead fumbled, recovered by ECaro for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
62.5%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 6 yds to the Memph 2Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
62.5%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 3Similar
Q1 6:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
62.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for no gain to the Memph 3Similar
Q1 2:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
59.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4FG
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0541% → 45%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
58.7%
Jevyon Ducker run for 4 yds to the Memph 7Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+7
58.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 7 yds to the Memph 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
58.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
58.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+43
59.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 43 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
57.2%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offsides (Elijah Morris) to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 38
+6
55.7%
Seth Henigan run for 6 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
55.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 11 yds to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
55.5%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-11
55.6%
Seth Henigan sacked by Jack Powers for a loss of 11 yards to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 21
OPP 32
+10
56.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Jevyon Ducker for 10 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 11
OPP 22
+40
54.9%
Chris Howard 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 11 yds · 3:4153% → 51%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
53.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-5
53.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Ryan Jones) to the ECaro 22Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+21
53.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 21 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
54.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 38Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 15
OWN 38
-15
53.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (C.J. Johnson) to the ECaro 25Similar
Q2 12:50
4TH & 24
OWN 29
+5
52.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 5 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 28
OWN 25
+4
52.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
51.0%
Ryan Jones run for 6 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 3:2449% → 67%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
51.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 5 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+2
50.8%
Gabriel Rogers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+8
51.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to John Hassell for 8 yds to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
50.8%
Seth Henigan run for 7 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+10
50.7%
Asa Martin run for 10 yds to the ECaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
46.1%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the ECaro 7Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
33.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 7 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0939% → 47%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
38.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 28 yds to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
41.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 7 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+10
41.4%
AHLERS, Holton pass up the middle incomplete dropped by JONES, Ryan thrown to the MEM30. PENALTY MEM Holding on OLIVER, Sylvonta enforced 10 yards from the MEM40 to the MEM30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
41.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+5
41.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 5 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+6
41.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the Memph 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
41.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Xavier Cullens) to the Memph 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+8
41.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 8 yds to the Memph 3Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
47.1%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8INT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:4256% → 56%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
44.4%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-8
42.1%
Seth Henigan sacked by Jeremy Lewis for a loss of 8 yards to the Memph 18Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 15
OWN 18
0
43.8%
Seth Henigan pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9TD
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
59.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 16 yds for a TD, (L. Larsen Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10END OF HALF
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4348% → 47%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
52.0%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the right incomplete intended for LEWIS, Eddie broken up by WASHINGTON, Aapri at the MEM45. PENALTY MEM Holding on CARTER, Davion enforced 10 yards from the MEM25 to the MEM15 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-2
52.4%
Seth Henigan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 13Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+6
52.7%
Asa Martin run for 6 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+4
53.5%
Asa Martin run for 4 yds to the Memph 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:5447% → 60%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
52.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 15 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
50.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 20 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
50.1%
Jevyon Ducker run for 1 yd to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-5
50.2%
Seth Henigan sacked by Elijah Morris for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 44
+5
52.6%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the right intercepted by WOOD, Julius at the ECU18 intended for LEWIS, Eddie. Wood return for 0 yards to the ECU18, End of Play. PENALTY ECU Offsides on SMITH, Xavier enforced 5 yards from the ECU44 to the ECU39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+21
50.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 21 yds to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
49.0%
Jevyon Ducker run for 7 yds to the ECaro 11Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+2
49.0%
Jevyon Ducker run for 2 yds to the ECaro 9Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+5
50.1%
Jevyon Ducker run for 5 yds to the ECaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
49.0%
Jevyon Ducker run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 5Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
49.0%
Seth Henigan run for no gain to the ECaro 5Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
50.2%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
40.0%
Chris Howard 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:0843% → 42%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
42.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 3 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+20
43.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 20 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
45.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 4 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
46.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
45.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
41.7%
Luke Larsen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Eddie Lewis at the Memph 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13INT TD
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:2561% → 42%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+16
39.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 16 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
38.1%
Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
38.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-47
58.5%
Julius Wood 47 Yd Interception Return (Andrew Conrad Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 4:3443% → 44%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
57.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 5 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+14
57.3%
Asa Martin run for 14 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
56.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 34Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+9
57.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 9 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+9
54.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 9 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
53.2%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
52.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-3
53.8%
Seth Henigan run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 0:49
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
56.0%
Joe Doyle punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15FG
16 plays · 87 yds · 7:5759% → 74%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
58.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the ECaro 13Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+8
59.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 8 yds to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
59.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+9
59.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 9 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+11
59.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 11 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
62.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 3 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+4
63.5%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+4
62.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
64.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 7 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+4
64.7%
Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
64.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Kerry King for 8 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+19
65.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 19 yds to the Memph 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
65.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Memph 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
65.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the Memph 5Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
64.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
73.8%
Andrew Conrad 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16FG
5 plays · 47 yds · 2:2232% → 50%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
68.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 40 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
61.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-1
61.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 36Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+8
65.3%
Seth Henigan run for 8 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+46
50.1%
Chris Howard 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4559% → 95%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
61.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+35
59.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 35 yds to the Memph 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
66.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+17
66.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 17 yds to the Memph 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
66.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 8 yds to the Memph 4Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 2
OPP 4
-1
66.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 5Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 3
OPP 5
-5
63.5%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Ryan Jones) to the Memph 10Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+9
63.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the Memph 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:2612% → 62%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
87.8%
Seth Henigan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 24Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+41
88.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 41 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
80.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
80.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 12 yds to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
77.9%
Seth Henigan run for 3 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+5
82.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 5 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+2
83.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 2 yds to the ECaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
38.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 13 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19END OF GAME
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:1957% → 63%
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
56.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 9 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+18
60.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 18 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
63.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
62.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
41.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 12 yds to the ECaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
41.1%
Seth Henigan run for 4 yds to the ECaro 9Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
41.1%
Asa Martin 9 Yd Run (Chris Howard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 83%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
65.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Memph 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+1
65.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Memph 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+9
63.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 9 yds to the Memph 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
65.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 10 yds to the Memph 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
83.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Memph 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 15:0087% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
86.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the Memph 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
86.5%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Cormontae Hamilton for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 30Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 30
+18
84.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 18 yds to the Memph 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
82.3%
Keaton Mitchell 12 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 15:0020% → 16%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
80.1%
Seth Henigan sacked by Shaundre Mims for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 27Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+18
83.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 18 yds to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
80.1%
Asa Martin run for 5 yds to the ECaro 4Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
79.0%
Asa Martin run for 3 yds to the ECaro 1Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.6%
Seth Henigan 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:19
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 13 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)
-45
TD · Q4 1:45
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Conrad KICK)
+32.1
TD · Q3 5:28
Julius Wood 47 Yd Interception Return (Andrew Conrad Kick)
+20.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com