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NAVY

Navy 34 at SMU 40

SMU
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2022 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:33 · Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Pregame prior+7.3Home team on offense+19.3Score differential+7.9Garbage-time factor+5.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.6Time remaining+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:13: Tai Lavatai run for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK) — NAVY win probability +12.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:40: Tanner Mordecai run for 60 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — SMU win probability +11.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:49: TJ McDaniel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +8.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:21: Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 26 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — NAVY win probability +6.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:09: Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK) — NAVY win probability +17.1 pts (now 21%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:01SMU 4th & 14 at NAVY 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:53NAVY 4th & 9 at SMU 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    21.0%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:07NAVY 4th & 3 at SMU 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    19.7%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−2.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:49SMU 4th & 10 at NAVY 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    77.0%−3.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:40NAVY 4th & 1 at SMU 27, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.6%−1.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−3.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:39NAVY 4th & 4 at SMU 19, down 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.2%−0.2
    77% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:48SMU 4th & 15 at SMU 28, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:23NAVY 4th & 1 at SMU 26, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.3%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:10NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.4%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:15NAVY 4th & 8 at SMU 49, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:08SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 29, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:33NAVY 4th & 15 at NAVY 16, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:40NAVY 4th & 1 at SMU 8, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.6
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:22SMU 4th & 14 at SMU 46, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 7:00SMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:14NAVY Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:13NAVY Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:40SMU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:49SMU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:49SMU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:21NAVY Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    7.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:28SMU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:31NAVY Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.0%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:09NAVY Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 5.7 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.1%−5.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1FG
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:5986% → 85%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+68
85.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 68 yds to the Navy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
85.8%
TJ McDaniel run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 21Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+2
85.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to TJ McDaniel for 2 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+10
85.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 10 yds to the Navy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
85.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Teddy Knox for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 12Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-2
85.5%
TJ McDaniel run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 14Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
85.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+30
84.8%
Collin Rogers 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:0815% → 16%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.9%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
84.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 19 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
84.4%
Daba Fofana run for 13 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
84.3%
Daba Fofana run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+1
84.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+1
84.2%
Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 7:53
4TH & 9
OPP 39
-5
84.3%
Tai Lavatai sacked by Mike Yoan Sandjo-Njiki and Isaac Slade-Matautia for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 0:2084% → 86%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+35
84.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 35 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
84.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 24Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+24
85.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 24 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4INT
13 plays · 46 yds · 6:3814% → 15%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.6%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
85.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
85.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
85.4%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 30Similar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+5
85.5%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 5 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
85.5%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+8
85.8%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
85.4%
Daniel Jones run for 19 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
84.6%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+2
84.2%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
84.4%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for no gain to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+3
84.8%
Tai Lavatai pass intercepted Isaac Slade-Matautia return for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:1385% → 89%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
85.0%
Tyler Lavine run for 2 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+24
84.9%
Tanner Mordecai run for 9 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
85.2%
Tyler Lavine run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+28
85.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 28 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
85.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Jordan KerleySimilar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
85.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+11
85.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 11 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
85.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-3
85.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to RJ Maryland for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+3
85.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 3 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 11:49
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
88.9%
Collin Rogers 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6MISSED FG
18 plays · 56 yds · 7:5112% → 13%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
87.8%
Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 16 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
87.6%
NAVY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+1
87.9%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+17
88.0%
Maquel Haywood run for 17 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
87.4%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+5
87.4%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+2
87.3%
Anton Hall Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+1
87.4%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
87.5%
Maquel Haywood run for 5 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+3
86.9%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
87.4%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
87.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
86.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-1
86.4%
Daba Fofana run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+5
87.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 5 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
87.3%
Daniel Davies 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3289% → 89%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
88.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 13 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
88.9%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+4
88.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to TJ McDaniel for 4 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 16
OWN 27
+1
88.9%
Tanner Mordecai run for 1 yd to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 15
OWN 28
0
88.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 15
OWN 28
0
88.6%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the Navy 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 1:2612% → 20%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
88.3%
Maquel Haywood run for 4 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
87.4%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 8 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+4
86.8%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-8
86.5%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 18
OPP 43
+9
88.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+8
87.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
87.1%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
85.9%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
79.9%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Vincent Terrell Jr. for 24 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
83.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4619% → 36%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
80.6%
NAVY Penalty, False Start (Kip Frankland) to the Navy 20Similar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
80.7%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 21Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+2
80.8%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
81.2%
NAVY Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Navy 18Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+7
81.3%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Maquel Haywood for 7 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+10
81.6%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+44
79.4%
Maquel Haywood run for 44 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
75.9%
Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+15
63.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 0:3070% → 81%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
69.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 9 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+60
81.1%
Tanner Mordecai run for 60 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12FUMBLE
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:1322% → 22%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
78.1%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Vincent Terrell Jr.Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
78.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 6 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+3
78.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 25Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+1
79.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
77.6%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
77.6%
Anton Hall Jr. run for no gain to the Navy 26 Anton Hall Jr. fumbled, forced by Jayden Jones, recovered by SMU Nick RobertsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:2182% → 91%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
82.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 6 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+7
82.2%
Tyler Lavine run for 7 yds to the Navy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
82.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
82.2%
Camar Wheaton run for 4 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+8
81.2%
Tanner Mordecai run for 8 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
82.1%
Tanner Mordecai run for no gain to the Navy 1 Tanner Mordecai fumbled, recovered by SMU Tanner MordecaiSimilar
Q3 5:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.6%
TJ McDaniel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:2311% → 11%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.5%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+20
89.1%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
88.3%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 3 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
88.0%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-4
88.2%
Tai Lavatai run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 49 Tai Lavatai fumbled, recovered by Navy Tai LavataiSimilar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
89.3%
Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:1191% → 97%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+47
91.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 47 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
97.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 33 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:245% → 11%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.2%
Maquel Haywood run for 10 yds to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
95.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 6 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
95.1%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
95.2%
Daba Fofana run for 9 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
95.1%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
95.4%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
95.7%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+3
95.7%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+15
95.8%
Tai Lavatai run for 15 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
89.4%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 26 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5294% → 94%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
94.3%
TJ McDaniel run for 2 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
94.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to TJ McDaniel for no gain to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+1
94.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 1 yd to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
93.8%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the Navy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:357% → 6%
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
92.8%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Jayden UmbargerSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
92.8%
Maquel Haywood run for a loss of 5 yards to the Navy 16Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 15
OWN 16
0
93.1%
Tai Lavatai run for no gain to the Navy 16Similar
Q4 10:33
4TH & 15
OWN 16
-9
93.7%
Riley Riethman punt for 47 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 2:0595% → 99%
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
94.9%
Camar Wheaton run for no gain to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+44
94.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 44 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
95.5%
Camar Wheaton run for 1 yd to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
95.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Jordan KerleySimilar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+27
98.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 27 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 5:571% → 3%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.0%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.0%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
99.0%
Tai Lavatai run for 6 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
99.1%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 8 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
99.1%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+9
99.3%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 9 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
99.3%
Maquel Haywood run for 19 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
99.2%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+6
99.2%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 6 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.2%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+2
99.2%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+7
99.3%
Nathan Kent run for 7 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+3
99.4%
Kai Puailoa-Rojas run for 3 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.3%
Logan Point run for 1 yd to the SMU 4Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.3%
Logan Point run for 1 yd to the SMU 3Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.7%
Logan Point run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:0898% → 98%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
50
-4
98.3%
Tanner Mordecai run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 46 Tanner Mordecai fumbled, recovered by SMU Tanner MordecaiSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 14
OWN 46
-3
98.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 17
OWN 43
+3
98.1%
Tyler Lavine run for 3 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
98.3%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 1:073% → 21%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.5%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Nathan KentSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
97.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+8
97.3%
Tai Lavatai run for 8 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
97.2%
Tai Lavatai sacked by TEAM for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 34 Tai Lavatai fumbled, recovered by Navy Tai Lavatai , return for 0 yards NAVY Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tai Lavatai) to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
97.5%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+14
97.6%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Kai Puailoa-Rojas for 14 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
97.2%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
97.2%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+34
97.3%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 34 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
96.6%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+17
96.7%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Jayden Umbarger for 17 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.6%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
96.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:09
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)
-17.1
TD · Q3 11:13
Tai Lavatai run for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)
-12.2
TD · Q3 10:40
Tanner Mordecai run for 60 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+11.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com