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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:58 · Mackenzie Morgan punt for 37 yds, downed at the UCF 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:23: E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 7 yds for a TD, (Camden Price KICK) — TEM win probability +1.5 pts (now 12%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:46: Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +2.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:40: John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 25 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +4.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:05: John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +3.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:41: John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 11 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 11:42TEM 4th & 5 at UCF 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.9% before the snapGo for it7.9%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call7.9%89% to makePunt7.4%−0.5average punt
- Q2 14:50TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 33, down 4Close callPunted · 10.7% before the snapGo for it10.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 12:37UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 39, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.9% before the snapGo for it87.6%−0.420% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.0%average punt
- Q2 8:43TEM 4th & 11 at UCF 31, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.0% before the snapGo for it12.8%−0.226% to convertField goalTheir call13.0%54% to makePunt12.6%−0.4average punt
- Q2 4:04TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 30, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snapGo for it9.7%−0.336% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.9%average punt
- Q2 1:01TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 32, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it6.6%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.0%average punt
- Q3 10:35TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 20, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.127% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 8:26TEM 4th & 12 at TEM 23, down 36Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 3:46TEM 4th & 9 at UCF 25, down 43Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.131% to convertField goal0.2%66% to makePunt-0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q4 12:58TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 31, down 50Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:42TEM 4th & 1 at UCF 25, down 57Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%71% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.166% to makePunt-0.1%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 10 of 10TEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 6:50UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.2%97% to makeGo for two91.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:23TEM Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.5%97% to makeGo for two11.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:18UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.6%97% to makeGo for two89.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:46UCF Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.3%97% to makeGo for two89.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:40UCF Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:05UCF Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:41UCF Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:22UCF Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:43UCF Touchdown, up 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:53UCF Touchdown, up 49 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:31UCF Touchdown, up 56 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1FG10 plays · 66 yds · 3:087% → 8%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
93.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 28 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
93.2%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 11 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+15
92.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 15 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD12 plays · 74 yds · 4:2792% → 92%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
92.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for no gain to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
92.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 6 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 10:33
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+5
92.2%
Plumlee, John Rhys pass incomplete, PENALTY TEMPLE offside (Jordan, Layton) 5 yards to the UCF37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+15
91.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 15 yds to the Temp 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
91.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 5 yds to the Temp 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:228% → 12%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
91.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 14 yds to the Temp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+10
91.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
50
+20
90.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 20 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+10
90.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to James Della Pesca for 10 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
88.5%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 7 yds for a TD, (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD5 plays · 72 yds · 0:5389% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2010% → 10%
UCFDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 2:0890% → 89%
Q2 13:55
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+17
89.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 17 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-8
89.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 34 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UCFSimilar
Q2 12:37
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
88.6%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Amad Anderson Jr. at the Temp 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7FG13 plays · 48 yds · 3:3711% → 13%
Q2 11:29
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+5
88.4%
Warner, E.J. pass incomplete to Mathis, D'Wan, PENALTY UCF offside 5 yards to the TEMPLE32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEMPLE.Similar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
88.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Temp 28 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TempSimilar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+15
88.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 15 yds to the Temp 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+29
87.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 14 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Corey Thornton) to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8TD8 plays · 46 yds · 2:3788% → 90%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 5
OPP 14
+8
88.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 8 yds to the Temp 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:3010% → 10%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-13
89.8%
Warner, E.J. pass incomplete to Anderson Jr., Amad, dropped pass, PENALTY TEMPLE pass interference (Barbon, Jose) 13 yards to the TEMPLE14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+6
90.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 6 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
90.2%
Mackenzie Morgan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3089% → 94%
Q2 2:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+29
88.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 29 yds to the Temp 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
90.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 6 yds to the Temp 37Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+12
90.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 12 yds to the Temp 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
94.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 25 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:288% → 7%
UCFDrive 12END OF HALF9 plays · 66 yds · 0:4194% → 97%
Q2 0:41
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+5
94.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 5 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
93.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 13 yds to the Temp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+34
93.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Stephen Martin for 34 yds to the Temp 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD8 plays · 83 yds · 3:1497% → 99%
Q3 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-1
97.4%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Yvandy Rigby for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+45
97.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 45 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+10
97.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 10 yds to the Temp 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 11 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:541% → 1%
Q3 10:35
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.5%
Mackenzie Morgan punt for 52 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 4 yds to the UCF 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15TD1 play · 68 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
99.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 68 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q3 9:48
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+3
99.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 3 yds to the Temp 25Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 23Similar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
99.7%
Mackenzie Morgan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the UCF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17TD2 plays · 69 yds · 0:36100% → 100%
TEMDrive 18DOWNS15 plays · 50 yds · 3:520% → 0%
Q3 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 15 yds to the Temp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+9
99.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for 9 yds to the Temp 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
99.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 4 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+11
99.8%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 11 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:38100% → 100%
Q3 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+19
99.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Jaylon Griffin for 19 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
99.8%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Xavier Townsend for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 0:07
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+12
99.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Stephen Martin for 12 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
99.9%
Thomas Castellanos run for 37 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:420% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21TD9 plays · 68 yds · 4:50100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22DOWNS12 plays · 36 yds · 2:490% → 0%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Warner, E.J. pass complete to Sanders, Adonicas for 11 yards to the TEMPLE36, PENALTY UCF pass interference 0 yards to the TEMPLE36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEMPLE.Similar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
100.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Evan Boozer for 7 yds to the Temp 43Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+5
100.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 5 yds to the Temp 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+18
100.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Zae Baines for 18 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
100.0%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 8 yds to the UCF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER8 plays · 42 yds · 4:06100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:40
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 25 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q2 0:05
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)
+3.8
TD · Q2 5:46
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)
+2.3