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USF

South Florida 24 at Cincinnati 28

CIN
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:59 · Colin McCreary punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior+23.6Home team on offense+3.3Garbage-time factor+0.8Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Blowout margin+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 3:16: Spencer Shrader 21 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +2.9 pts (now 10%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:03: Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 9 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +6.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:11: Charles McClelland run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK) — CIN win probability +7.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:56: Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 16 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +26.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:24: Charles McClelland run for 35 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK) — CIN win probability +24.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 3:16USF 4th & 4 at CIN 4, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.6%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:27USF 4th & 5 at USF 14, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 2:20CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 47, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:21USF 4th & 8 at USF 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  5. Q3 7:59USF 4th & 5 at USF 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 5:41CIN 4th & 3 at USF 44, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    83.1%−2.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:53USF 4th & 5 at USF 6, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:18CIN 4th & 1 at USF 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    81.2%−2.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−9.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:37CIN 4th & 19 at USF 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−4.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:59USF 4th & 12 at USF 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−7.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:12USF 4th & 1 at CIN 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    24.3%−3.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−15.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:31CIN 4th & 1 at USF 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    89.1%−2.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−5.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:24USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:45CIN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:27CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:03USF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:11CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:56USF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:24CIN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:365% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.3%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+15
95.3%
Gerry Bohanon run for 15 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
95.3%
Brian Battie run for 2 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
95.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Yusuf TerrySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+16
95.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Khafre Brown for 16 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
95.3%
Jimmy Horn Jr. run for 5 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
95.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+6
95.3%
Brian Battie run for 6 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
95.3%
Brian Battie run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+8
95.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 8 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
93.4%
Brian Battie run for 22 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.5%
Ben Bryant pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 6:007% → 10%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
93.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Brian Battie for 1 yd to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+10
93.5%
Brian Battie run for 10 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
93.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Brian BattieSimilar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
93.4%
K'Wan Powell run for 4 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+8
93.4%
Gerry Bohanon run for 8 yds to the Cincy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
93.3%
Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the Cincy 5Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q1 9:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
93.4%
Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the Cincy 4Similar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
93.3%
Brian Battie run for 7 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+2
93.3%
K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the Cincy 12Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+33
93.4%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 18 yds to the CINCINNATI 36 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Jacob Dingle) to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
90.5%
Spencer Shrader 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3190% → 92%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.3%
Charles McClelland run for 3 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+19
90.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 19 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
90.5%
Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+17
90.6%
Charles McClelland run for 17 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
90.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 9 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+28
91.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 28 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3310% → 10%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
90.5%
K'Wan Powell run for 7 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+1
90.4%
Gerry Bohanon run for 1 yd to the SFla 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+1
90.6%
Gerry Bohanon run for 1 yd to the SFla 14Similar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
90.1%
Colin McCreary punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the SFla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:0091% → 91%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
90.6%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+11
90.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 11 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
90.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 1 yd to the SFla 33Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+7
90.7%
Charles McClelland run for 7 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 4
OPP 26
-5
90.5%
PENALTY CIN False Start (Scott,Tyler) 5 yards from USF26 to USF31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+17
90.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 17 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
91.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Nick Mardner for 14 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:2410% → 17%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
90.5%
Gerry Bohanon run for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+33
90.0%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 33 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
89.4%
Gerry Bohanon run for 6 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
89.3%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr.Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+6
89.6%
Gerry Bohanon run for 6 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
89.3%
Brian Battie run for 6 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+8
89.3%
Gerry Bohanon run for 8 yds to the Cincy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
89.3%
Gerry Bohanon run for 1 yd to the Cincy 10Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
89.3%
Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the Cincy 9Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
83.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 9 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:4385% → 83%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
84.6%
Ryan Montgomery run for 8 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
85.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 5 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
85.1%
Ryan Montgomery run for 5 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
85.9%
Ryan Montgomery run for 3 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
85.5%
Ryan Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
83.2%
Mason Fletcher punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the SFla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:5918% → 19%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
82.1%
Jimmy Horn Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+9
82.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 9 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
81.9%
Gerry Bohanon run for no gain to the SFla 26Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
82.1%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+1
79.8%
Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
80.6%
Colin McCreary punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:1281% → 80%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
80.5%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Chris ScottSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
80.1%
Charles McClelland run for 15 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
79.7%
Ben Bryant pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4981% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
80.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 18 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
82.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 6 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+8
82.6%
Charles McClelland run for 8 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
82.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Blue Smith for 9 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+12
83.5%
Charles McClelland run for 12 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-6
83.5%
Ben Bryant sacked by Jason Vaughn for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 16
OPP 28
-10
79.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bryant,Ben pass complete deep left to Tucker,Tre for 28 yards to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 12:03 PENALTY CIN Holding (Tunstall,James) 10 yards from USF28 to USF38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 26
OPP 38
+26
78.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Ryan Montgomery for 26 yds to the SFla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
81.0%
Evan Prater run for 9 yds to the SFla 3Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+2
81.0%
Ryan Montgomery run for 2 yds to the SFla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
81.0%
No Huddle Montgomery,Ryan rush left for 0 yards to the USF01 (LaPointe,Mekhi; Sease,De'Juan) PENALTY USF Illegal Substitution. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.2%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:0715% → 15%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
85.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 11 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
85.3%
Gerry Bohanon run for 1 yd to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+6
85.6%
Gerry Bohanon run for 6 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
85.5%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
85.2%
Colin McCreary punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:1886% → 85%
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
85.6%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Josh WhyleSimilar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
85.4%
Charles McClelland run for 8 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+10
86.1%
Charles McClelland run for 10 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
86.8%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Tre TuckerSimilar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
86.5%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Tre TuckerSimilar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+7
85.4%
Ben Bryant run for 7 yds to the SFla 44 Ben Bryant fumbled, recovered by Cincy Ben BryantSimilar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
84.8%
Mason Fletcher punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4816% → 13%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
84.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Matthew Hill) declinedSimilar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
84.2%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+5
86.6%
Brian Battie run for 5 yds to the SFla 6Similar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 5
OWN 6
0
86.6%
Colin McCreary punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the SFla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:3587% → 86%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
86.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Jadon Thompson for 6 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+15
86.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bryant,Ben pass incomplete short right to Thompson,Jadon PENALTY USF Pass Interference (Williams,Christian) 15 yards from USF36 to USF21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
87.2%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+4
87.2%
Charles McClelland run for 4 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+3
86.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 3 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q3 2:18
4TH & 1
OPP 12
0
85.6%
Ryan Montgomery run for no gain to the SFla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16TD
5 plays · 88 yds · 2:2213% → 43%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+59
86.7%
Gerry Bohanon run for 59 yds to the Cincy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
82.6%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+3
82.6%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+6
83.0%
Gerry Bohanon run for 6 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
56.9%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 16 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:1966% → 59%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
66.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Nick Mardner for 8 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
69.1%
Charles McClelland run for 16 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
70.1%
Ben Bryant run for 7 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+5
71.0%
Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
70.8%
Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-9
73.5%
Evan Prater sacked by Jatorian Hansford for a loss of 9 yards to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 14
OPP 43
0
67.0%
Evan Prater pass incomplete to Josh WhyleSimilar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 14
OPP 43
-5
65.1%
PENALTY CIN False Start (Pace,Deshawn) 5 yards from USF43 to USF48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:37
4TH & 19
OPP 48
0
59.3%
Mason Fletcher punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the SFla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3843% → 46%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
56.8%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the SFla 9 Brian Battie fumbled, recovered by SFla K'Wan PowellSimilar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 14
OWN 9
+2
58.3%
Brian Battie run for 2 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 12
OWN 11
0
58.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to K'Wan PowellSimilar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 12
OWN 11
0
54.2%
Colin McCreary punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19TD
2 plays · 50 yds · 0:3561% → 86%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
50
+15
61.4%
Evan Prater pass complete to Josh Whyle for 15 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
85.7%
Charles McClelland run for 35 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 35 yds · 4:1217% → 18%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
83.1%
Brian Battie run for 5 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+16
80.8%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 16 yds Xavier Weaver fumbled, recovered by SFla Xavier Weaver for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
79.9%
Brian Battie run for 7 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+1
79.7%
Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the Cincy 36Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+2
80.2%
K'Wan Powell run for 2 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
78.2%
Brian Battie run for 7 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
78.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
80.1%
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Jimmy Horn Jr. for 2 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+5
81.7%
Brian Battie run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21END OF GAME
12 plays · 45 yds · 5:1288% → 97%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
87.7%
Charles McClelland run for 16 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
89.2%
Charles McClelland run for 3 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+11
89.3%
Evan Prater run for 11 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
89.9%
Ryan Montgomery run for 3 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+4
90.0%
Evan Prater run for 4 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+2
92.1%
Charles McClelland run for 2 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+9
92.8%
Charles McClelland run for 9 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
94.1%
run for 2 yds to the SFla 24 fumbled, recovered by Cincy Chris ScottSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 24
-1
96.7%
Kneel down by Cincinnati at USF25 for loss of 1 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:56
Gerry Bohanon pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 16 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
-26.1
TD · Q4 9:24
Charles McClelland run for 35 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)
+24.3
TD · Q3 10:11
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)
+7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com