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TLSA

Tulsa 21 at Navy 53

NAVY
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+2.4NAVY 36.8%Daniel Davies 25 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 5:10
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:10 · Daniel Davies 25 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Home team on offense+1.0Score differential−0.1Pregame prior−16.1Garbage-time factor+0.2Blowout margin−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:41: Daba Fofana run for 47 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK) — NAVY win probability +6.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:57: Daba Fofana run for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK) — NAVY win probability +14.6 pts (now 63%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:57: D. Fofana run for 11 yds for a TD, (D. Davies KICK) — NAVY win probability +18.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:21: D. Brin pass,to K. Stokes for 76 yds for a TD, (Z. Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +12.7 pts (now 27%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:06: K. Puailoa-Rojas pass,to T. Lavatai for 26 yds for a TD, (D. Davies KICK) — NAVY win probability +10.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 14:11TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:34NAVY 4th & 8 at TLSA 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    40.9%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:45TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:10NAVY 4th & 6 at TLSA 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    41.5%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:45TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 49, down 3
    Close callPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:15TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:55NAVY 4th & 11 at NAVY 23, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−2.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:11NAVY 4th & 10 at TLSA 29, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−4.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 46, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.3%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:33NAVY 4th & 11 at TLSA 17, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:42NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 28, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:52NAVY 4th & 3 at TLSA 3, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:56TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 43, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 2:25NAVY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:43TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:41NAVY Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:57NAVY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:57NAVY Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:21TLSA Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:06NAVY Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:17TLSA Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:52NAVY Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4969% → 68%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.2%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
31.2%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
31.2%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q1 14:11
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
31.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:3732% → 33%
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
31.6%
Maquel Haywood run for 5 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+12
31.6%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
31.6%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
31.6%
Maquel Haywood run for no gain to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
31.6%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Mark WalkerSimilar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
32.7%
Kellen Grave de Peralta punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4967% → 66%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
32.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 4 yds to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+2
32.7%
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+10
32.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 10 yds to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
32.7%
Davis Brin sacked for 0 yards to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
32.7%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
32.8%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
34.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 3:3534% → 37%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
33.9%
TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
34.5%
Daba Fofana run for 20 yds to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
34.6%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
34.6%
Daba Fofana run for no gain to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
34.6%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+1
34.4%
Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+25
36.8%
Daniel Davies 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:2563% → 62%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
36.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 17 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
36.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 9 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
35.7%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
35.8%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 3
OWN 49
+4
37.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 40 yds , Amin Hassan returns for 4 yds to the Navy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
2 plays · 85 yds · 0:2038% → 42%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
37.6%
Lavatai,Tai pass incomplete short middle to Haywood,Maquel PENALTY Tulsa Pass Interference (Oliver,Jaise) 15 yards from Navy15 to Navy30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
42.2%
Nathan Kent run for 70 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4258% → 63%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 5 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
41.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 11 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+22
40.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 22 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
40.1%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
37.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 22 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 1:1939% → 47%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
39.1%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+21
39.0%
Logan Point run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
40.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+47
46.8%
Daba Fofana run for 47 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2654% → 52%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
45.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
45.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 6 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
45.5%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
46.0%
PENALTY Tulsa Delay Of Game (Wilson,Lachlan) 5 yards from Tulsa33 to Tulsa28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+57
48.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 51 yds , Amin Hassan returns for 57 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 1:1848% → 63%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
48.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+3
48.4%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+15
63.0%
Daba Fofana run for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11Uncategorized
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:5040% → 36%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
60.5%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+3
60.7%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 13
OWN 2
0
63.7%
D. Brin sacked for a loss of 2 yards. Navy Saftey.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:1265% → 66%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
64.8%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+3
64.8%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 3 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+3
64.1%
Tai Lavatai run for 3 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 7:55
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
66.0%
Riley Riethman punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13INT
3 plays · -10 yds · 0:3936% → 34%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
64.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Anderson,Steven rush left for 7 yards gain to the Tulsa44 (Lane,Rayuan) PENALTY Tulsa Holding (Wade,Dillon) 10 yards from Tulsa37 to Tulsa27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 20
OWN 27
0
65.9%
Davis Brin pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+15
65.9%
NAVY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:1970% → 87%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
69.5%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Maquel HaywoodSimilar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
69.4%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
68.5%
Tai Lavatai run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
69.1%
Xavier Arline run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+5
69.1%
Maquel Haywood run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+3
68.5%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
86.7%
D. Fofana run for 11 yds for a TD, (D. Davies KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3613% → 27%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
86.8%
PENALTY Tulsa False Start (Li'o Marks,Tautai) 5 yards from Tulsa25 to Tulsa20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
85.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 4 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+76
72.6%
D. Brin pass,to K. Stokes for 76 yds for a TD, (Z. Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16FG
16 plays · 46 yds · 3:1074% → 86%
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.4%
Maquel Haywood run for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
74.4%
Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
74.6%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for no gain to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
74.4%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+4
74.2%
Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
75.1%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Jayden UmbargerSimilar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
74.9%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 3:21
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+3
74.3%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
82.8%
Tai Lavatai pass complete to Mark Walker for 9 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+3
82.8%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
82.8%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
82.9%
Tai Lavatai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
82.4%
Tai Lavatai pass incomplete to Vincent Terrell Jr.Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
85.9%
D. Davies 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
82.9%
Kneel down by Tulsa at Tulsa29 for loss of 3 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:5487% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.6%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
86.7%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 7 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
86.6%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
87.1%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Navy 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
87.0%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+5
86.7%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 46
+28
86.0%
Rayuan Lane III run for 28 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
87.3%
Nathan Kent run for no gain to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
98.1%
K. Puailoa-Rojas pass,to T. Lavatai for 26 yds for a TD, (D. Davies KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19FUMBLE
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:412% → 2%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
98.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 5 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+11
98.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 11 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
98.1%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 15 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
98.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 6 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
97.8%
Keylon Stokes run for 3 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+5
98.5%
run for 5 yds to the Navy 49 fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Rayuan LaneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20FG
12 plays · 34 yds · 5:5299% → 99%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
98.8%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+2
98.8%
Logan Point run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
98.9%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+2
98.8%
Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
98.9%
Daba Fofana run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+7
98.9%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
98.9%
Daba Fofana run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
98.9%
Vincent Terrell Jr. run for no gain to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+1
99.4%
Tai Lavatai run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 12Similar
Q3 2:33
4TH & 6
OPP 12
-5
99.4%
PENALTY Navy Delay Of Game (Lavatai,Tai) 5 yards from Tulsa12 to Tulsa17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:33
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+34
99.4%
D. Davies 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:161% → 4%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Steven Anderson run for no gain to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.5%
Davis Brin run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.5%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Colby Powers for 4 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+8
99.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 8 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
99.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 22 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.4%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+25
99.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 25 yds to the Navy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.4%
Steven Anderson run for 3 yds to the Navy 1Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.6%
S. Anderson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Z. Long KICK)Similar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
96.3%
PENALTY Navy UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Lane,Rayuan) 15 yards from Tulsa35 to Tulsa50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3299% → 99%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
99.2%
Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+4
99.2%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+3
99.3%
Xavier Arline run for 3 yds to the Navy 43 Xavier Arline fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Jon-Michael TerrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
96.7%
Davis Brin pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 3:5599% → 100%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+8
99.1%
Daba Fofana run for 8 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 3
OWN 10
+11
99.1%
Daba Fofana run for 11 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
99.3%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+3
99.4%
Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+1
99.4%
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 7:42
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+5
99.5%
Riley Riethman punt for 45 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 5 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.0%
Braylon Braxton pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 26TD
7 plays · 35 yds · 3:44100% → 100%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.7%
Logan Point run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+26
99.7%
Logan Point run for 26 yds to the Tulsa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.6%
Logan Point run for no gain to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
99.6%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
99.7%
Tai Lavatai run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q4 3:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
V. Terrell Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (D. Davies KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:560% → 0%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Bill Jackson run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
Bill Jackson run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
99.9%
Bill Jackson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Amin Hassan at the Navy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
99.9%
Logan Point run for 4 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Logan Point run for 3 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+2
100.0%
Logan Point run for 2 yds to the Navy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:57
D. Fofana run for 11 yds for a TD, (D. Davies KICK)
+18.3
TD · Q2 10:57
Daba Fofana run for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Davies KICK)
+14.6
TD · Q2 3:21
D. Brin pass,to K. Stokes for 76 yds for a TD, (Z. Long KICK)
-12.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com