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ECU

East Carolina 9 at Tulane 24

TULN
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Yulman Stadium
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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:13 · Casey Glover punt for 65 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Home team on offense+29.4Pregame prior+0.2Score differential+14.1Garbage-time factor+15.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:08: Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 24 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer PAT MISSED) — ECU win probability +4.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:12: Michael Pratt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — TULN win probability +8.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  3. INT · Q3 4:08: Holton Ahlers pass intercepted, touchback. — ECU win probability +3.8 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:08: Iverson Celestine run for 1 yd to the Tulan 21 — TULN win probability +9.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:00: Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 44 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — TULN win probability +18.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:53ECU 4th & 4 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:34TULN 4th & 9 at TULN 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:04ECU 4th & 8 at TULN 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:11ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:54TULN 4th & 9 at TULN 23, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00ECU 4th & 6 at TULN 29, down 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.5%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−6.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:40TULN 4th & 12 at TULN 48, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%−2.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:01ECU 4th & 9 at ECU 30, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−1.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:21TULN 4th & 14 at ECU 41, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    67.6%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:33ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 39, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:12TULN 4th & 12 at ECU 46, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    89.8%−1.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:30TULN 4th & 14 at ECU 25, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−1.1
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−3.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:25ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 46, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:37ECU 4th & 10 at TULN 38, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:13TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 35, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:00ECU 4th & 12 at TULN 22, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 14:18TULN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:08ECU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    43.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:12TULN Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:00TULN Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 3:0739% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
60.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 9 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
60.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 10 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
60.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
50
+1
60.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Tulan 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-1
60.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:53
4TH & 4
50
+13
60.5%
Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds , Jha'Quan Jackson returns for 13 yds to the Tulan 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:1961% → 60%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
60.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 7 yds to the Tulan 25Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+5
60.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 5 yds to the Tulan 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
60.7%
Tyjae Spears run for 12 yds to the Tulan 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
60.9%
Tyjae Spears run for no gain to the Tulan 42Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-3
60.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 39Similar
Q1 11:53
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+4
60.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for 4 yds to the Tulan 43Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
60.3%
Casey Glover punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:3040% → 41%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
60.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 12 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
60.2%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 4 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+8
60.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 8 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
59.8%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
59.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+20
60.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 20 yds to the Tulan 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
59.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 8 yds to the Tulan 25Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+13
59.5%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 13 yds to the Tulan 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
59.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 3 yds to the Tulan 9Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-5
58.7%
AHLERS, Holton pass to the left complete for 9 yards to JONES, Ryan caught at the TLN0 and advanced to the TLN0, TOUCHDOWN ECU, score nullified by penalty, clock 04:24. PENALTY ECU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on STROTHER, Nishad enforced 5 yards from the TLN9 to the TLN14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+5
58.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Marlon Gunn Jr. for 5 yds to the Tulan 9Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 7
OPP 9
-1
59.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 10Similar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
59.0%
Owen Daffer 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:4059% → 64%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
58.7%
Tyjae Spears run for 4 yds to the Tulan 28Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+6
58.8%
Michael Pratt run for 6 yds to the Tulan 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
58.9%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
58.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 8 yds to the Tulan 42Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+2
59.6%
run for 2 yds to the Tulan 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+46
59.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 46 yds to the ECaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
60.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Dea Dea McDougle for 5 yds to the ECaro 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
60.5%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
59.8%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (2 Yards) to the ECaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
60.5%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 3Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for 3 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:0338% → 44%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
61.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 7 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+21
60.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 6 yds to the Tulan 49 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, Personal Foul (Lance Robinson) to the Tulan 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
60.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 12 yds to the Tulan 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
59.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the Tulan 24Similar
Q2 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
55.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 24 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6TD
19 plays · 93 yds · 7:5059% → 69%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
58.5%
run for 3 yds to the Tulan 10Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
58.5%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 7
OWN 10
+25
57.3%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyrick James for 25 yds to the Tulan 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
58.6%
Tyjae Spears run for 6 yds to the Tulan 41Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
60.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyjae Spears for 6 yds to the Tulan 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
60.4%
TULANE Penalty, False Start (Joey Claybrook) to the Tulan 42Similar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 15
OWN 42
0
59.0%
Iverson Celestine run for no gain to the Tulan 42Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+17
58.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 17 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
60.8%
Iverson Celestine run for 3 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+12
60.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Dea Dea McDougle for 12 yds to the ECaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
61.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Iverson Celestine for 10 yds to the ECaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
61.5%
Iverson Celestine run for no gain to the ECaro 16Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+9
61.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 9 yds to the ECaro 7Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+1
60.5%
Michael Pratt run for 1 yd to the ECaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
61.1%
Tyjae Spears run for 1 yd to the ECaro 5Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
61.1%
Michael Pratt run for 4 yds to the ECaro 1 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Juan Powell) to the ECaro 1Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.3%
Michael Pratt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5533% → 31%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
67.3%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
67.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
68.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:11
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
69.1%
Luke Larsen punt for 53 yds, downed at the Tulan 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1768% → 66%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
68.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 4 yds to the Tulan 26Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-3
68.1%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 23Similar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 9
OWN 23
0
67.0%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 9
OWN 23
0
65.9%
Casey Glover punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 32 yds · 1:5433% → 34%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
66.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 40Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+4
67.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 4 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+10
66.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 10 yds to the Tulan 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
64.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 5 yds to the Tulan 41Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
64.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+8
64.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 8 yds to the Tulan 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
62.7%
Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
62.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
64.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+46
65.9%
Owen Daffer 46 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 4:1568% → 67%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
68.0%
Tyjae Spears run for 2 yds to the Tulan 26Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-8
68.0%
Michael Pratt sacked by Jeremy Lewis for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulan 18Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 16
OWN 18
+16
66.5%
Tyjae Spears run for 16 yds to the Tulan 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-8
68.3%
Michael Pratt sacked by J.D. Lampley and Myles Berry for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulan 26Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 18
OWN 26
+24
67.6%
Kai Horton pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
50
0
70.2%
Tyjae Spears run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
50
+3
69.7%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-5
69.3%
TULANE Penalty, False Start (Prince Pines) to the Tulan 48Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
67.5%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:40
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
66.9%
Casey Glover punt for 37 yds , Malik Fleming returns for no gain to the ECaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:3933% → 31%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
66.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for 14 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
66.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 1 yd to the ECaro 30Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
66.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the ECaro 30Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
67.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
69.0%
Luke Larsen punt for 33 yds, downed at the Tulan 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:4070% → 68%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+26
70.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 26 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
72.2%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-4
72.0%
Michael Pratt sacked by Shaundre Mims and Chad Stephens for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 41Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 14
OPP 41
0
69.5%
Michael Pratt pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:21
4TH & 14
OPP 41
0
68.0%
Casey Glover punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13INT
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:1332% → 39%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+14
67.8%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 14 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
67.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
67.3%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 5 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+15
67.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 15 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
65.0%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 8 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+20
62.9%
Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 20 yds to the Tulan 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
61.6%
MITCHELL, Keaton rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the TLN28 (WILLIAMS, Dorian;MONROE, Jarius). PENALTY ECU Holding on REDD, Justin enforced 10 yards from the TLN32 to the TLN42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+15
64.7%
TULANE Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle on CLARK, Macon enforced (Macon Clark) to the Tulan 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
60.9%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:0870% → 88%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
70.0%
Iverson Celestine run for 1 yd to the Tulan 21Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+35
69.7%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 35 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
88.0%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 44 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2715% → 14%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 7 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
83.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
84.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 35Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+4
85.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 4 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
84.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:33
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
86.5%
Luke Larsen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jha'Quan Jackson at the Tulan 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:4889% → 91%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
88.8%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 5 yds to the Tulan 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 28
-4
88.8%
Michael Pratt sacked by J.D. Lampley for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+21
88.2%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Bryce Bohanon for 21 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
89.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 11 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
89.6%
Iverson Celestine run for 1 yd to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-2
89.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Tyjae Spears for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 45
+4
88.9%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 4 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 41
-5
88.3%
TULANE Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
91.1%
Casey Glover punt for 35 yds, fair catch by C.J. Johnson at the ECaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:1810% → 10%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
89.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 9 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+9
88.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
88.6%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Patrick Jenkins for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+7
89.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 7 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
90.5%
Holton Ahlers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18FG
7 plays · 23 yds · 4:2493% → 97%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
93.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 13 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
93.5%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Dea Dea McDougle for 3 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+11
93.4%
Michael Pratt pass complete to Shae Wyatt for 11 yds to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
93.4%
Iverson Celestine run for no gain to the ECaro 21Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-4
93.4%
Michael Pratt sacked by Xavier Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 25Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 14
OPP 25
0
93.1%
Tyjae Spears run for no gain to the ECaro 25Similar
Q4 4:30
4TH & 14
OPP 25
+42
96.8%
Valentino Ambrosio 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19DOWNS
12 plays · 48 yds · 2:483% → 3%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.8%
AHLERS, Holton pass to the left complete for 14 yards to WINSTEAD, Isaiah caught at the ECU32 and advanced to the ECU34 (CANADY, Jadon). PENALTY ECU Illegal Touch-Pass on WINSTEAD, Isaiah enforced 0 yards from the ECU20 to the ECU20, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
96.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 6 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+12
96.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 12 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
96.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 8 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
96.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
96.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+5
96.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the Tulan 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
96.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 11 yds to the Tulan 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
96.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
96.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
96.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 10
OPP 38
+6
97.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 6 yds to the Tulan 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:2099% → 99%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
98.5%
Iverson Celestine run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 31Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+3
98.5%
Tyjae Spears run for 3 yds to the Tulan 34Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+1
98.6%
run for 1 yd to the Tulan 35Similar
Q4 1:13
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
98.5%
Casey Glover punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 58 yds · 1:131% → 1%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
99.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 21 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
99.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for 19 yds to the Tulan 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
99.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 7 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 3
OPP 33
0
98.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+13
98.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 13 yds to the Tulan 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
98.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
98.9%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-15
98.9%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (C.J. Johnson) to the Tulan 35Similar
Q4 0:17
3RD & 25
OPP 35
+13
99.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 13 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 22
0
99.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:00
Michael Pratt pass complete to Duece Watts for 44 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
+18.3
KEY PLAY · Q3 4:08
Iverson Celestine run for 1 yd to the Tulan 21
+9.1
TD · Q2 4:12
Michael Pratt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
+8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com