Try the model
HOU

Houston 33 at Memphis 32

MEM
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2022 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.8MEM 95.6%Chris Howard 26 Yd Field GoalAWAY 13 - HOME 29 · Q4 8:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:00 · Chris Howard 26 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 159Home team on offense+25.6Garbage-time factor+12.0Score differential+12.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.5Pregame prior+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:02: Clayton Tune 1 Yd Run (Bubba Baxa Kick) — HOU win probability +10.0 pts (now 38%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:47: Jayce Rogers 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — HOU win probability +6.8 pts (now 11%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:47: Timeout MEMPHIS, clock 07:47 — HOU win probability +6.7 pts (now 18%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:17: Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 13 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +19.2 pts (now 22%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:18: Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK) — HOU win probability +65.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:28HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:11HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:31MEM 4th & 20 at MEM 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−2.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:22HOU 4th & 1 at MEM 2, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.6%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    25.3%−2.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−8.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:15MEM 4th & 5 at HOU 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    62.9%−4.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:21HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 27, down 10
    Close callPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:41MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−1.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:19HOU 4th & 1 at MEM 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    21.7%−3.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−13.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:54MEM 4th & 10 at HOU 10, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−1.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−8.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:24HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:48MEM 4th & 16 at MEM 41, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−3.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:53HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:00MEM 4th & 3 at HOU 8, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.8%−0.7
    90% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−5.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:04MEM 4th & 10 at HOU 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    89.3%−2.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:01HOU 4th & 11 at HOU 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:25HOU 4th & 7 at MEM 26, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 6:15MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:00MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:02HOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:50MEM Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    95.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:44HOU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    9.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    9.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:47HOU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.2 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.9%−1.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:17HOU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:18HOU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−12.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:2747% → 47%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Brandon Campbell for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+13
53.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 13 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
52.9%
Brandon Campbell run for no gain to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
53.0%
Clayton Tune run for 1 yd to the Houst 43Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 9
OWN 43
-5
53.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Patrick Paul) to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 14
OWN 38
0
53.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
Q1 12:28
4TH & 14
OWN 38
+5
53.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds , Eddie Lewis returns for 5 yds to the Memph 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2TD
15 plays · 78 yds · 6:0053% → 58%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
53.3%
Brandon Thomas run for no gain to the Memph 22Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
53.3%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Brandon ThomasSimilar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+14
53.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 14 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
53.5%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Javon IvorySimilar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
53.5%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+15
53.4%
Henigan, Seth pass incomplete to Rogers, Gabriel, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference (Rogers, Jayce) 15 yards to the HOUSTON48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS.Similar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
54.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 10 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
54.2%
Asa Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+10
54.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 10 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+2
54.3%
Asa Martin run for 2 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
54.6%
Asa Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+15
54.7%
Gabriel Rogers run for 15 yds to the Houst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
54.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 7 yds to the Houst 7Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+4
55.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the Houst 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
58.2%
Brandon Thomas 3 Yd Run (Chris Howard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3INT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:4643% → 43%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 7 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
57.6%
Clayton Tune run for 6 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
57.4%
Brandon Campbell run for 2 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+9
57.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 9 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
57.4%
Brandon Campbell run for 7 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 3
OPP 44
-1
57.3%
Brandon Campbell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 45Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-4
57.4%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted Quindell Johnson return for 4 yds to the Memph 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:0460% → 68%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
60.0%
Seth Henigan run for 12 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
60.6%
Jevyon Ducker run for 6 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+3
60.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 3 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+8
60.7%
Gabriel Rogers run for 8 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
61.4%
Jevyon Ducker run for no gain to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
61.5%
Henigan, Seth pass incomplete to Oliver, Sylvonta, PENALTY HOUSTON offside (Bankston, Latrell) 5 yards to the HOUSTON25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+25
67.9%
Caden Prieskorn 25 Yd pass from Seth Henigan (Chris Howard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:1935% → 33%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
65.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 3 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
65.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Sam BrownSimilar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+11
66.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 11 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-9
66.5%
Clayton Tune sacked by Cormontae Hamilton for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 19
OWN 27
+14
67.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 14 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
66.8%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
67.3%
Laine Wilkins punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:5970% → 69%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
69.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 20 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
71.0%
Seth Henigan sacked by Jamaree Caldwell and Mannie Nunnery for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 37Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
70.4%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 13
OWN 37
-7
70.1%
Seth Henigan sacked by Nelson Ceaser for a loss of 7 yards to the Memph 30Similar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 20
OWN 30
0
69.4%
Joe Doyle punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nathaniel Dell at the Houst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 4:1832% → 38%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
68.3%
Brandon Campbell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+10
69.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 10 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+34
68.9%
Brandon Campbell run for 34 yds to the Memph 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
67.7%
Brandon Campbell run for 6 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+8
68.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 8 yds to the Memph 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
68.7%
Brandon Campbell run for 3 yds to the Memph 8Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
70.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to KeSean CarterSimilar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+6
71.2%
Clayton Tune run for 6 yds to the Memph 2Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+1
71.7%
Brandon Campbell run for 1 yd to the Memph 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.8%
Clayton Tune 1 Yd Run (Bubba Baxa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:4366% → 71%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.3%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Joseph ScatesSimilar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
66.1%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Caden PrieskornSimilar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
65.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 15 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+37
68.1%
Asa Martin run for 37 yds to the Houst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
69.0%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 5
OPP 18
-4
69.4%
Asa Martin run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+4
68.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 4 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
71.0%
Chris Howard 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2429% → 28%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
70.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 6 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 4
OWN 27
0
70.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
71.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Peyton SawyerSimilar
Q2 2:21
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
72.1%
Laine Wilkins punt for 41 yds, downed at the Memph 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3572% → 70%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
71.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Jevyon Ducker for 2 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
71.9%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Eddie LewisSimilar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
71.3%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Joseph ScatesSimilar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
70.4%
Joe Doyle punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nathaniel Dell at the Houst 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11MISSED FG
14 plays · 70 yds · 1:3429% → 31%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
71.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 7 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 3
OWN 33
0
70.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+3
71.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 3 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
71.2%
Brandon Campbell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 35 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Cam'Ron Jackson) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
50
-10
69.5%
Tune, Clayton pass complete to Dell, Nathaniel for 30 yards to the MEMPHIS20, PENALTY HOUSTON holding (Johnson, Cam'Ron) 10 yards to the HOUSTON40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 20
OWN 40
-1
71.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kelan Walker for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 21
OWN 39
+19
71.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 19 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+6
68.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 6 yds to the Memph 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+25
68.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 25 yds to the Memph 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
67.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+7
66.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 7 yds to the Memph 4Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+21
69.1%
Bubba Baxa 21 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
73.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 31 yds · 0:3472% → 73%
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
72.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 7 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
73.1%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (Davion Carter) to the Memph 27Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+29
72.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 29 yds Joseph Scates fumbled, forced by Gervarrius Owens, recovered by Houst Gervarrius OwensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:0128% → 27%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+37
71.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 37 yds to the Memph 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
69.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 5 yds to the Memph 14Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+10
69.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 10 yds to the Memph 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
69.6%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q3 12:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
69.7%
Brandon Campbell run for 3 yds to the Memph 1Similar
Q3 11:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
71.3%
Clayton Tune run for no gain to the Memph 1Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.8%
Brandon Campbell run for no gain to the Memph 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15FG
15 plays · 89 yds · 6:0675% → 86%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
74.6%
Jevyon Ducker run for 1 yd to the Memph 2Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
74.6%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Roc TaylorSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+26
74.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 26 yds to the Memph 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
76.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 27Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 11
OWN 27
0
75.9%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Gabriel RogersSimilar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+15
75.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 15 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
78.0%
Seth Henigan run for 10 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
78.6%
Ryan Glover run for 5 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+28
79.5%
Ryan Glover run for 28 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
80.0%
Jevyon Ducker run for 1 yd to the Houst 14Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+9
80.3%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 9 yds to the Houst 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
80.5%
Jevyon Ducker run for no gain to the Houst 5Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
81.1%
Seth Henigan run for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 10Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
80.6%
Gabriel Rogers pass incomplete to Caden PrieskornSimilar
Q3 4:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
86.2%
Chris Howard 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2416% → 15%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
84.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
85.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Sam BrownSimilar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.5%
Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds for a 1ST down , Eddie Lewis returns for 2 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Hasaan Hypolite) to the Memph 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1288% → 87%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
87.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 1 yd to the Memph 48Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
87.9%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Joseph ScatesSimilar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-7
87.4%
Seth Henigan sacked by D'Anthony Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the Memph 41Similar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 16
OWN 41
+2
87.0%
Joe Doyle punt for 51 yds , Nathaniel Dell returns for 2 yds to the Houst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:3714% → 13%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
85.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 16 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
86.0%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Brandon CampbellSimilar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
86.4%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
86.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Sam BrownSimilar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
87.0%
Laine Wilkins punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:4089% → 97%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
89.2%
Jevyon Ducker run for 5 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+8
89.4%
Jevyon Ducker run for 8 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
91.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 3 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+41
96.7%
Asa Martin 41 Yd pass from Gabriel Rogers (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+15
96.5%
HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamal Morris) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:366% → 13%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
94.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 2 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Roughing Passer (Jaylon Allen) to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+32
93.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 32 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
93.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 7 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+14
93.4%
Stacy Sneed run for 14 yds to the Memph 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
93.5%
Stacy Sneed run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 6Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
86.9%
Nathaniel Dell 6 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 4:2593% → 96%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
93.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
93.1%
Seth Henigan pass incomplete to Caden PrieskornSimilar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+11
92.8%
Seth Henigan run for 11 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
93.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 2 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+25
93.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 25 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
94.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the Houst 14Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+5
94.3%
Seth Henigan run for 5 yds to the Houst 9Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+1
94.8%
Asa Martin run for 1 yd to the Houst 8Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+26
95.6%
Chris Howard 26 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23FG
11 plays · 22 yds · 3:1692% → 98%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
91.5%
Jevyon Ducker run for 10 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
91.8%
Jevyon Ducker run for 5 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
92.3%
Seth Henigan run for no gain to the Houst 28Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+7
92.1%
Seth Henigan run for 7 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
93.0%
Jevyon Ducker run for 2 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-1
93.1%
Asa Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 20Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 9
OPP 20
-1
93.5%
Brandon Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 21Similar
Q4 4:04
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+39
97.6%
Chris Howard 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:423% → 22%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.0%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Khiyon WaferSimilar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-1
97.2%
Stacy Sneed run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 24Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+15
97.4%
Clayton Tune run for 15 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
97.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
50
+9
96.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 9 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+12
96.7%
Stacy Sneed run for 12 yds to the Memph 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
96.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 1 yd to the Memph 28Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+2
96.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 2 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
96.6%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Sam BrownSimilar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+13
96.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 13 yds to the Memph 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
77.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 13 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 0:4215% → 88%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
84.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 21 yds to the Memph 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
78.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for no gain to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+15
79.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 15 yds to the Memph 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
78.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Sam Brown for 13 yds to the Memph 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
78.2%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
12.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:1132% → 26%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
31.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 15 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
25.5%
Seth Henigan sacked by Atlias Bell for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:18
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 2 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
-65.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-25.5
TD · Q4 1:17
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 13 yds for a TD, (Kyle Ramsey KICK)
-19.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com