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SMU

SMU 19 at UCF 41

UCF
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2022 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDSAFETYTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:13 · Ryan Bujcevski punt for 49 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 6 yds to the UCF 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 64Home team on offense−4.0Score differential−1.6Pregame prior+6.8Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:49: Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +8.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:14: Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +10.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:07: John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 26 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK), (Colton Boomer KICK) — UCF win probability +13.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. SAFETY · Q4 12:41: Tanner Mordecai sacked for a loss of 6 yards for a SAFETY — UCF win probability +4.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:51: John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 58 yds for a TD, (John Rhys Plumlee pass to Kobe Hudson for Two-Point Conversion) — UCF win probability +5.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9SMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 11:18UCF 4th & 2 at SMU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    59.7%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    59.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:02UCF 4th & 9 at SMU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:02SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.8%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:04UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 32, down 4
    Close callPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:26SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:24UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:00SMU 4th & 6 at UCF 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    43.3%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:44SMU 4th & 5 at UCF 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−3.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:31UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:13SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 27, up 7
    Close callPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:24SMU 4th & 7 at UCF 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−5.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:21UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:47SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.0%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:32UCF 4th & 16 at SMU 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:17SMU 4th & 16 at SMU 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−2.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:50SMU 4th & 3 at UCF 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    17.0%−0.6
    77% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−5.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:22UCF 4th & 13 at SMU 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:41SMU 4th & 6 at UCF 29, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−1.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:32SMU 4th & 18 at SMU 27, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:28UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 30, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:27SMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:49UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:14UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:07UCF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:51UCF Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    97.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:27UCF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:0440% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.2%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
60.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 9 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
60.2%
Tanner Mordecai run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 36Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+18
60.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 18 yds Rashee Rice fumbled, recovered by UCF Jason JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2FG
12 plays · 30 yds · 3:5460% → 61%
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
60.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
60.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+15
60.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 15 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
60.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+4
60.4%
Ryan O'Keefe run for 4 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+2
60.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+3
60.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
60.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
60.7%
Johnny Richardson run for 1 yd to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
60.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:02
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+41
60.7%
Colton Boomer 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3539% → 42%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
60.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Beau Corrales for 11 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
60.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 8 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
60.2%
Velton Gardner run for no gain to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
60.3%
Velton Gardner run for 1 yd to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 10:02
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+7
60.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to RJ Maryland for 7 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
60.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 8 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+39
57.8%
Velton Gardner run for 39 yds for a TD, (Collin Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4859% → 58%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
58.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 5 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
58.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+4
58.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 6:04
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
58.1%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:3841% → 42%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
58.6%
Tre Siggers run for 9 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
58.1%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
58.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
58.4%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the right intercepted by BROWN, Davonte at the UCF42 intended for DIXON, Kelvontay. Brown return for 0 yards to the UCF42, End of Play. PENALTY UCF Offsides enforced 5 yards from the SMU32 to the SMU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-1
58.0%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 36Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
58.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+12
58.4%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 47 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 12 yds to the UCF 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0258% → 57%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
58.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 9 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 1
OWN 38
-5
59.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Johnny Richardson for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+4
57.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 4 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 2:24
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
57.4%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 46 yds, downed at the SMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 3:4042% → 48%
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
57.7%
Velton Gardner run for 1 yd to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+14
57.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 14 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
57.2%
Velton Gardner run for 8 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+8
56.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 8 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
56.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 15 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
56.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:24
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
56.4%
Velton Gardner run for 4 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
56.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+13
56.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 13 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
55.3%
Velton Gardner run for 1 yd to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+4
55.2%
Velton Gardner run for 4 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
55.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:44
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
52.3%
Collin Rogers 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:1354% → 53%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
53.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
54.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
54.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
54.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 4 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
54.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
52.7%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 38 yds, downed at the SMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1848% → 48%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
52.5%
Camar Wheaton run for 7 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
51.6%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
51.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+6
52.5%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 49 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 6 yds to the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:3651% → 63%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
51.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
51.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 5 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
51.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+29
52.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 29 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
54.6%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
54.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for no gain to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+25
53.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 25 yds to the SMU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
54.8%
Isaiah Bowser pass complete to Trilion Coles for no gain to the SMU 3Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
54.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 2:2543% → 47%
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
57.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 20 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+25
55.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 25 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
53.3%
Tre Siggers run for 11 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
52.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+8
53.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 8 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+6
54.0%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
52.9%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 7Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
52.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
54.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
52.8%
Collin Rogers 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:0354% → 51%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
54.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
54.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 8 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
55.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
54.8%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 36Similar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
53.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
51.3%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 43 yds, downed at the SMU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13INT
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:2148% → 53%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
52.5%
Velton Gardner run for 5 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+2
51.4%
Velton Gardner run for 2 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+5
51.8%
QB Keeper MORDECAI, Tanner rush to the left for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU22 (ADAMS, Brandon). PENALTY UCF Offsides enforced 5 yards from the SMU28 to the SMU33 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
51.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Beau Corrales for 13 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
49.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
49.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ben Redding for 9 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
46.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:3953% → 69%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
53.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+17
53.7%
Isaiah Bowser run for 17 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+51
56.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 51 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
58.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2736% → 35%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
64.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 8 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
62.0%
Tanner Mordecai run for no gain to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
63.7%
Velton Gardner run for 1 yd to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 11:47
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-1
65.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Nolan Matthews-Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 2:1569% → 67%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-5
68.6%
Ryan O'Keefe run for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+1
66.4%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 14
OPP 37
-2
65.4%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Isaiah Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 16
OPP 39
0
66.6%
Andrew Osteen punt for 36 yds, downed at the SMU 3Similar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+15
67.4%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass up the middle incomplete intended for RICE, Rashee thrown to the SMU45. PENALTY UCF Pass Interference on BROWN, Davonte enforced 15 yards to the SMU18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
66.7%
SIGGERS, Tre rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the SMU21 (CELISCAR, Josh;JOHNSON, Jamaal). PENALTY SMU Holding on HICKMAN, Branson enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the SMU18 to the SMU9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:1533% → 32%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 19
OWN 9
+5
67.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ben Redding for 5 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 14
OWN 14
+7
67.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Dylan Goffney for 7 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+15
68.1%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the left incomplete intended for CORRALES, Beau thrown to the SMU39. PENALTY UCF Pass Interference on THORNTON, Corey enforced 15 yards to the SMU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
65.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 18 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
62.8%
MORDECAI, Tanner scrambles to the right for no gain to the UCF46 (CELISCAR, Josh). PENALTY SMU Holding on SIGGERS, Tre enforced 10 yards from the UCF46 to the SMU44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 20
OWN 44
-2
65.8%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 22
OWN 42
+6
66.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to RJ Maryland for 6 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 16
OWN 48
0
66.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:17
4TH & 16
OWN 48
0
68.5%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Xavier Townsend at the UCF 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 3:1069% → 86%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
68.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 11 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
68.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 19 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
71.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+6
71.4%
RJ Harvey run for 6 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
72.0%
RJ Harvey run for 16 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
72.9%
QB Keeper PLUMLEE, John Rhys rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the SMU28 (REID, Shanon). PENALTY Before the snap, UCF Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the SMU29 to the SMU34. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+8
72.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 8 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+26
85.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 26 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK), (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:1716% → 17%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ben Redding for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
82.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 13 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
82.1%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the left incomplete intended for UPSHAW, Austin thrown to the UCF35. PENALTY UCF Pass Interference on ADAMS, Brandon enforced 15 yards to the UCF42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
80.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ben Redding for 16 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
79.5%
Tanner Mordecai run for 4 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+3
79.5%
Velton Gardner run for 3 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 3
OPP 19
0
80.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:50
4TH & 3
OPP 19
0
82.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:2886% → 87%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
85.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+33
87.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 33 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
88.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kemore Gamble for 5 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
88.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 36
-3
87.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 39
-5
86.6%
UCF Penalty, False Start (John Rhys Plumlee) to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 13:22
4TH & 13
OPP 44
0
86.7%
Andrew Osteen punt for 40 yds, downed at the SMU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21SF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:4114% → 9%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
86.1%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 8
OWN 6
-6
90.6%
Tanner Mordecai sacked for a loss of 6 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22TD
2 plays · 63 yds · 0:4393% → 99%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
93.1%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+58
98.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 58 yds for a TD, (John Rhys Plumlee pass to Kobe Hudson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:102% → 1%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tre Siggers for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
98.4%
UCF Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Divaad Wilson) to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
98.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
98.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
98.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 6
OPP 29
0
98.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 5:1499% → 100%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
98.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 6 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+3
99.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
99.1%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 5 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+10
99.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 10 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.1%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+30
99.1%
RJ Harvey run for 30 yds to the SMU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
99.1%
RJ Harvey run for 7 yds to the SMU 3Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Preston Stone run for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
99.9%
Preston Stone run for 1 yd to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.9%
Preston Stone pass complete to Beau Corrales for 7 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-15
99.9%
STONE, Preston pass to the left complete for 4 yards to GOFFNEY, Dylan caught at the SMU46 and advanced to the SMU46 (YATES, Walter;HENDERSON, Demari). PENALTY SMU Chop Block on MCDANIEL, TJ enforced 15 yards from the SMU42 to the SMU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 18
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 18
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 44 yds , Xavier Townsend returns for 2 yds to the UCF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-11
99.9%
run for a loss of 11 yards to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 21
OWN 20
+2
99.9%
Thomas Castellanos run for 2 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 19
OWN 22
+8
99.9%
Thomas Castellanos pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 8 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 1:280% → 1%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
99.9%
Preston Stone pass complete to Camar Wheaton for 17 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Preston Stone pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
99.9%
Preston Stone pass complete to Camar Wheaton for 7 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+29
99.9%
Preston Stone pass complete to Nolan Matthews-Harris for 29 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
100.0%
Preston Stone pass complete to Teddy Knox for 8 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
99.9%
Camar Wheaton run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 2Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.4%
Preston Stone run for 2 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:07
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 26 yds for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK), (Colton Boomer KICK)
+13.5
TD · Q3 13:14
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)
+10.2
TD · Q2 5:49
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd for a TD, (Colton Boomer KICK)
+8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com