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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:33 · Joe Doyle punt for 58 yds , Amad Anderson Jr. returns for 10 yds to the Temp 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 1:36: Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — MEM win probability +12.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 1:31: Quincy Patterson run for 2 yds to the Temp 19 — TEM win probability +5.6 pts (now 23%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- FG · Q4 11:27: Chris Howard 30 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +7.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 8:37: Seth Henigan pass incomplete — MEM win probability +6.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:00: Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK) — MEM win probability +6.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 11TEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 13
- Q1 13:33MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snapGo for it88.0%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.1%average punt
- Q1 12:15TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 39, tiedClose callPunted · 12.2% before the snapGo for it12.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 9:33MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 47, tiedClose callPunted · 87.0% before the snapGo for it87.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:23TEM 4th & 4 at MEM 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.1%40% to convertField goal14.0%−0.193% to makePunt13.4%−0.7average punt
- Q1 2:52MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 40, tiedClose callPunted · 84.4% before the snapGo for it84.5%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 0:39TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 29, tiedClose callPunted · 16.2% before the snapGo for it16.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.1%−0.5average punt
- Q1 0:39TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 29, tiedClose callPunted · 16.2% before the snapGo for it16.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.1%−0.5average punt
- Q2 13:27MEM 4th & 15 at MEM 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snapGo for it81.9%−0.716% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.6%average punt
- Q2 11:56TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 37, tiedClose callPunted · 18.0% before the snapGo for it18.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.9%−0.3average punt
- Q2 9:20MEM 4th & 7 at TEM 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call81.6%37% to convertField goal81.3%−0.428% to makePunt81.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 7:55TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snapGo for it20.0%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.7%average punt
- Q2 4:32MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snapGo for it78.1%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.5%average punt
- Q2 0:35TEM 4th & 6 at MEM 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.6% before the snapGo for it26.0%−0.740% to convertField goalTheir call26.7%58% to makePunt23.1%−3.7average punt
- Q2 0:00MEM 4th & 7 at TEM 39, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.7%37% to convertField goal71.7%−0.936% to makePunt72.4%−0.3average punt
- Q3 12:56TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 31, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snapGo for it29.9%−0.848% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.8%average punt
- Q3 10:56MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 38, down 3Close callPunted · 67.6% before the snapGo for it68.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.7%−0.3average punt
- Q3 10:08TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 21, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snapGo for it29.5%−2.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.0%average punt
- Q3 10:08MEM 4th & 2 at TEM 40, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call69.2%57% to convertField goal66.3%−2.934% to makePunt66.8%−2.5average punt
- Q3 7:38MEM 4th & 1 at TEM 12, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.2%71% to convertField goal64.3%−2.886% to makePunt54.9%−12.2average punt
- Q3 5:46TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 20, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 35.7% before the snapGo for it36.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.1%−1.5average punt
- Q4 14:53TEM 4th & 3 at TEM 24, down 4Close callPunted · 21.9% before the snapGo for it22.5%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 11:27MEM 4th & 7 at TEM 12, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.0% before the snapGo for it76.2%−0.933% to convertField goalTheir call77.0%86% to makePunt65.0%−12.0average punt
- Q4 8:37TEM 4th & 2 at MEM 40, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call16.0%57% to convertField goal13.1%−2.934% to makePunt12.2%−3.8average punt
- Q4 0:57TEM 4th & 7 at MEM 18, down 21Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−0.335% to convertField goal0.9%79% to makePunt0.4%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
- Q3 1:36MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.3%97% to makeGo for two77.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 7:00MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call94.7%−0.297% to makeGo for two95.0%45% to convert
- Q4 4:15MEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMEMDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2389% → 89%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
88.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 5 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 24
-3
88.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 21Similar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 8
OWN 21
+10
88.5%
Joe Doyle punt for 58 yds , Amad Anderson Jr. returns for 10 yds to the Temp 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1812% → 12%
MEMDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 30 yds · 2:4288% → 87%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
88.2%
Seth Henigan sacked by Jordan Magee for a loss of 8 yards to the Memph 9Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 18
OWN 9
+13
88.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 13 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
88.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Joseph Scates for 14 yds to the Memph 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
87.4%
Joe Doyle punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Amad Anderson Jr. at the Temp 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4DOWNS6 plays · 86 yds · 2:1013% → 14%
MEMDrive 5PUNT10 plays · 36 yds · 4:3187% → 85%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
86.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 7 yds to the Memph 11Similar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
86.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 6 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
86.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 3 yds to the Memph 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1315% → 16%
Q1 2:52
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
85.1%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 6 yds to the Temp 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 6 yds · 1:3384% → 83%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+6
83.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sutton Smith for 6 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-5
83.7%
Seth Henigan sacked by Tra Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 22Similar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 15
OWN 22
+6
82.7%
Joe Doyle punt for 55 yds , Amad Anderson Jr. returns for 6 yds to the Temp 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3117% → 18%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9DOWNS10 plays · 35 yds · 2:3683% → 82%
Q2 11:56
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+14
82.5%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the right incomplete intended for IVORY, Javon thrown to the MEM40. PENALTY TEM Pass Interference on CLARK, Elijah enforced at the spot of the foul for 14 yards to the MEM40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
83.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brandon Thomas for 6 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
84.1%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the right incomplete intended for SCATES, Joe broken up by CLARK, Elijah at the TEM33. PENALTY MEM Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on POUNDERS, Makylan enforced 5 yards from the TEM46 to the MEM49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2520% → 20%
Q2 9:20
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-1
79.9%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Edward Saydee for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 3:2381% → 79%
Q2 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+12
81.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Asa Martin for 12 yds to the Memph 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
81.3%
Seth Henigan sacked by Jalen Ware for a loss of 10 yards to the Memph 16Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 20
OWN 16
+8
81.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 8 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+14
80.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Roc Taylor for 14 yds to the Memph 38 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, Offsides (Jalen McMurray) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
79.1%
Joe Doyle punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Amad Anderson Jr. at the Temp 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12FG12 plays · 54 yds · 3:5723% → 29%
MEMDrive 13DOWNS7 plays · 26 yds · 0:2272% → 74%
TEMDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0429% → 29%
MEMDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0071% → 68%
Q3 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-1
70.5%
Seth Henigan sacked by Darian Varner for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4832% → 30%
MEMDrive 17DOWNS8 plays · 36 yds · 2:3072% → 68%
TEMDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5236% → 35%
Q3 7:38
3RD & 7
OWN 15
-5
65.6%
WARNER, E.J. pass up the middle complete for 15 yards to BARBON, Jose caught at the TEM19 and advanced to the TEM30 (JOHNSON, Quindell;ROSS, Davion). PENALTY TEM Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BARBON, Jose enforced 5 yards from the TEM15 to the TEM10 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 12
OWN 10
+10
65.6%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Darvon Hubbard for 10 yds to the Temp 20Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 2
OWN 20
+31
64.7%
Mackenzie Morgan punt for 46 yds TEMPLE Penalty, Kick Catch Interference on BAINES, Zae enforced (Zae Baines) to the Temp 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD11 plays · 45 yds · 4:1069% → 82%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
68.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Gabriel Rogers for 5 yds to the Temp 40Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+9
68.7%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Javon Ivory for 9 yds to the Temp 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+6
68.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Koby Drake for 6 yds to the Temp 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+12
68.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Eddie Lewis for 12 yds to the Temp 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
69.9%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the left incomplete intended for HASSELL, John broken up by MAGEE, Jordan at the TEM0. PENALTY TEM Pass Interference on MAGEE, Jordan enforced 3 yards to the TEM2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3823% → 22%
MEMDrive 21FG9 plays · 55 yds · 3:2679% → 88%
TEMDrive 22DOWNS7 plays · 39 yds · 2:4615% → 17%
Q4 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
85.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 19 yds to the Temp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+9
83.3%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Kobe Wilson for 9 yds to the Memph 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+5
82.7%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 5 yds to the Memph 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23TD7 plays · 60 yds · 1:3790% → 97%
Q4 8:37
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+15
89.1%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the right incomplete intended for ROGERS, Gabriel thrown to the TEM32; QB hurried by KAMARA, Balansama. PENALTY TEM Pass Interference on RUIZ, Cameron enforced 15 yards to the TEM45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 24INT3 plays · 2 yds · 1:205% → 5%
MEMDrive 25TD4 plays · 18 yds · 1:2197% → 99%
Q4 5:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
97.2%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the left incomplete intended for PRIESKORN, Caden broken up by CLARK, Elijah at the TEM4. PENALTY TEM Holding on WOODBURY, D.J. enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the TEM4 to the TEM2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 26INT5 plays · 32 yds · 1:081% → 1%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
99.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 8 yds to the Temp 23Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+16
99.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 16 yds to the Temp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
99.4%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Jose Barbon for 8 yds to the Temp 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 27FUMBLE4 plays · -6 yds · 1:0299% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:36
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Howard KICK)
+12.5
FG · Q4 11:27
Chris Howard 30 yd FG GOOD
+7.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:37
Seth Henigan pass incomplete
+6.9