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CIN

Cincinnati 31 at Tulsa 21

TLSA
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.1TLSA 22.3%Ryan Coe 39 yd FG GOODAWAY 24 - HOME 14 · Q2 0:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Ryan Coe 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 99Pregame prior−13.1Home team on offense−11.7Score differential−5.2Garbage-time factor−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:27: Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 61 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK) — CIN win probability +5.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:49: Corey Kiner run for 19 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK) — CIN win probability +5.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:20: Deneric Prince run for 8 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +10.8 pts (now 32%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:09: Deneric Prince run for 2 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK) — TLSA win probability +12.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q3 8:37: Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK) — CIN win probability +9.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10CIN made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00CIN 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:10CIN 4th & 17 at CIN 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:06CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:37TLSA 4th & 15 at TLSA 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:42TLSA 4th & 22 at TLSA 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−2.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:42TLSA 4th & 22 at TLSA 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−2.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:37CIN 4th & 16 at TLSA 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−4.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:41TLSA 4th & 15 at TLSA 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:49CIN 4th & 1 at TLSA 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−1.6
    77% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−5.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:42TLSA 4th & 9 at CIN 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    20.6%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:57CIN 4th & 12 at CIN 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00CIN 4th & 5 at TLSA 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−5.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:37CIN 4th & 2 at TLSA 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    63.9%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−12.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:21CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:46TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:15CIN 4th & 19 at CIN 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%−4.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:34TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:37TLSA 4th & 1 at CIN 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−4.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−9.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:37TLSA 4th & 1 at CIN 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−4.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−9.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:58CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−1.0
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:58TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 38, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:23CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:55TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:27CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:49CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:20TLSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:09TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:37CIN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 19 yds · 3:5074% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.8%
Charles McClelland run for no gain to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
25.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 16 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
25.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 5 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+1
25.8%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the Cincy 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
25.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Charles McClelland for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
50
+1
25.8%
Ben Bryant run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-9
25.8%
Ben Bryant sacked by Jon-Michael Terry for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 42
0
25.8%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 42
+2
25.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 2 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 17
OWN 44
0
27.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2INT TD
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:4728% → 26%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
27.6%
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 12
OWN 13
0
27.6%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 12
OWN 13
-18
26.4%
Deshawn Pace 18 Yd Interception Return (Ryan Coe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3TD
15 plays · 79 yds · 5:2327% → 32%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
26.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 18 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
26.8%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+15
27.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 15 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
27.1%
Deneric Prince run for 8 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 2
OPP 34
0
27.2%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+3
27.0%
Steven Anderson run for 3 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
27.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 4 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 6
OPP 27
-1
27.2%
Davis Brin sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+9
27.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 9 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
27.2%
Deneric Prince run for 6 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+3
27.3%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+5
27.1%
Deneric Prince run for 5 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
27.3%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the Cincy 2Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
31.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4970% → 68%
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.5%
Charles McClelland run for 7 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
30.0%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
30.3%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
31.6%
Mason Fletcher punt for 45 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for no gain to the Tulsa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:2932% → 32%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
31.5%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
31.5%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Isaiah EppsSimilar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+13
31.0%
Davis Brin pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 13 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
32.6%
Deneric Prince run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
32.7%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-8
32.2%
Davis Brin sacked by Jabari Taylor for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 0:37
4TH & 15
OWN 27
+12
32.0%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 46 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 12 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
1 play · 61 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
26.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 61 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:1828% → 27%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.9%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-7
28.0%
Davis Brin sacked by Deshawn Pace for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-7
27.3%
Davis Brin sacked by Ivan Pace Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 13 Davis Brin fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Jeremy Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
27.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
27.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8MISSED FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:0573% → 72%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+52
27.4%
Corey Kiner run for 52 yds to the Tulsa 20 Corey Kiner fumbled, recovered by Cincy for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
26.3%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Tyler ScottSimilar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+7
26.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 7 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+4
26.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 4 yds to the Tulsa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
26.3%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
26.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 2 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
26.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bryant,Ben pass complete short left to Whyle,Josh for 6 yards to the TLS00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 10:45 PENALTY CIN Holding (Tunstall,James) 10 yards from TLS06 to TLS16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
27.1%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q2 10:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+34
28.2%
Ryan Coe 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5629% → 27%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
28.5%
Steven Anderson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
28.5%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-8
27.8%
Davis Brin sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 15
OWN 15
+31
27.2%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 44 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 31 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:5274% → 80%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
26.2%
Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+1
26.2%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+4
26.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 4 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+19
20.1%
Corey Kiner run for 19 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:0720% → 20%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
20.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ethan Hall for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
20.1%
Deneric Prince run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
20.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Ethan Hall for 6 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
21.0%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
20.6%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Deneric PrinceSimilar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+16
20.3%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 16 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
21.5%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the Cincy 45Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
21.5%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
21.2%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 3:42
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
20.1%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ryan Montgomery at the Cincy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:4580% → 81%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+13
19.8%
Corey Kiner run for 13 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
19.6%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
19.5%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Corey KinerSimilar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 7
OWN 24
-5
19.9%
PENALTY CIN False Start 5 yards from CIN24 to CIN19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 12
OWN 19
0
20.2%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Josh WhyleSimilar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 12
OWN 19
+2
19.1%
Mason Fletcher punt for 44 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 2 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 0:3720% → 32%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+31
19.6%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 31 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
20.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 22 yds to the Cincy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
31.5%
Deneric Prince run for 8 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 1:2074% → 78%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.0%
Charles McClelland run for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
25.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tre Tucker for 18 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
24.3%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Charles McClelland for 10 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
23.6%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Tre TuckerSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+16
23.9%
Ben Bryant run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
22.0%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Josh WhyleSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
22.3%
Ben Bryant run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
22.4%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+39
22.3%
Ryan Coe 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5124% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.7%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Ethan HallSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.6%
Deneric Prince run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+41
22.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 41 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
26.8%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+5
26.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brin,Davis pass complete short left to Santana,JuanCarlos for 5 yards to the CIN24 (Harris,Justin) PENALTY CIN Offside 5 yards from CIN29 to CIN24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+18
26.8%
Steven Anderson run for 11 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (Ivan Pace Jr.) to the Cincy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
26.8%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the Cincy 5Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
26.8%
Braylon Braxton run for 3 yds to the Cincy 2Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.4%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:3264% → 77%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
36.4%
PENALTY TLS UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting TLS UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting CIN UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+60
35.0%
Charles McClelland run for 60 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
31.4%
Corey Kiner run for no gain to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
31.4%
Ben Bryant run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
32.6%
Charles McClelland run for no gain to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
23.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17INT
10 plays · 36 yds · 2:3523% → 24%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.6%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.4%
Bill Jackson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
22.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brin,Davis pass incomplete short right to Epps,Isaiah PENALTY CIN Roughing The Passer (Phillips,Eric) 15 yards from TLS29 to TLS44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
24.0%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-10
23.7%
Davis Brin sacked by Dontay Corleone for a loss of 10 yards to the Tulsa 34 Davis Brin fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Dillon Wade , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 20
OWN 34
+15
21.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brin,Davis pass incomplete short middle to Stokes,Keylon PENALTY CIN Targeting (Threats,Bryon) 15 yards from TLS34 to TLS49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
24.5%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 9 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+3
25.1%
Bill Jackson run for 3 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
23.6%
Davis Brin pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:4178% → 80%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
21.6%
Charles McClelland run for no gain to the Cincy 20Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
21.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Tyler Scott for 12 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
21.0%
Charles McClelland run for 1 yd to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
21.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 4 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
20.9%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Josh WhyleSimilar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
20.5%
Mason Fletcher punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 3:3521% → 18%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
20.5%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
20.4%
Davis Brin pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 6 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
19.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brin,Davis pass incomplete short right to Epps,Isaiah PENALTY CIN Holding offsetting TLS Holding offsetting CIN Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+7
19.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 7 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
21.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brin,Davis pass incomplete short left to Santana,JuanCarlos PENALTY TLS Holding (Muskrat,Jaden) 10 yards from TLS31 to TLS21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+2
20.3%
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 18
OWN 23
-7
20.2%
Davis Brin sacked by Justin Wodtly for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 25
OWN 16
+15
18.0%
Deneric Prince run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
17.7%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:3180% → 83%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
19.9%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Nick MardnerSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
20.2%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+16
20.7%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Leonard Taylor for 16 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-8
18.1%
Ben Bryant sacked by Anthony Goodlow for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 18
OWN 31
-8
20.2%
Ben Bryant sacked by Joseph Anderson for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 23Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 26
OWN 23
+7
17.7%
Charles McClelland run for 7 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 19
OWN 30
0
16.7%
Mason Fletcher punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 3:4117% → 13%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
17.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brin,Davis pass incomplete short middle to Stokes,Keylon PENALTY TLS Holding (Baah,Chester) 10 yards from TLS25 to TLS15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+5
16.7%
Davis Brin pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 5 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
16.6%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+15
15.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brin,Davis pass incomplete short middle to Jones,Malachai broken up by Carroll,Kalen PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (Carroll,Kalen) 15 yards from TLS20 to TLS35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
17.6%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Malachai JonesSimilar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-7
17.4%
Davis Brin sacked by Jabari Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 17
OWN 28
+22
15.9%
Davis Brin pass complete to Malachai Jones for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
50
+4
19.3%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-6
20.0%
Davis Brin sacked by Wilson Huber for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
17.3%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
12.6%
Lachlan Wilson punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4687% → 90%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
12.7%
Charles McClelland run for 3 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 7
OWN 10
0
12.3%
Ben Bryant pass incomplete to Charles McClellandSimilar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 7
OWN 10
0
10.4%
Ben Bryant pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23DOWNS
12 plays · 20 yds · 4:1118% → 8%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-10
18.2%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 13
OPP 24
+12
17.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Prince,Deneric rush left for 0 yards to the CIN24 (Dingle,Jacob) PENALTY CIN Personal Foul (Pace Jr.,Ivan) 12 yards from CIN24 to CIN12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
18.2%
Deneric Prince run for no gain to the Cincy 12Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+2
18.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+8
16.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Brin,Davis pass incomplete short left to Santana,JuanCarlos PENALTY CIN Pass Interference (Harris,Justin) 8 yards from CIN10 to CIN02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
17.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, Personal Foul (JQ Hardaway) to the Cincy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.8%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the Cincy 2Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
18.2%
Braylon Braxton run for 2 yds to the Cincy 4Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
10.2%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 3 yds to the Cincy 1Similar
Q4 2:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.6%
Braylon Braxton pass incomplete to Ethan HallSimilar
Q4 2:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.6%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to Ethan HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:3994% → 96%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
5.6%
PENALTY TLS Offside 5 yards from CIN01 to CIN06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 5
OWN 6
+5
5.6%
Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
5.3%
Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+3
5.4%
Corey Kiner run for 3 yds to the Cincy 16Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+1
5.5%
Corey Kiner run for 1 yd to the Cincy 17Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
3.8%
Mason Fletcher punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:585% → 5%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
4.8%
Davis Brin pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 7 yds to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
5.1%
Davis Brin pass incomplete to JuanCarlos SantanaSimilar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 3
OWN 46
-8
5.0%
Braylon Braxton sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 11
OWN 38
-3
4.2%
Braylon Braxton pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (JuanCarlos Santana) to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
4.6%
Braylon Braxton sacked by Jowon Briggs for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:09
Deneric Prince run for 2 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)
+12.6
TD · Q2 1:20
Deneric Prince run for 8 yds for a TD, (Zack Long KICK)
+10.8
TD · Q3 8:37
Ben Bryant pass complete to Josh Whyle for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Coe KICK)
-9.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com