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NAVY

Navy 23 at East Carolina 20

ECU
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTQ2FGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of GameFG-4.5ECU 76.3%D.Davies 37 yard field goal attempt isgood, Center-B.Rhodes, Holder-K.GraveDe Peralta.AWAY 3 - HOME 3 · Q2 0:13
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:13 · D.Davies 37 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-B.Rhodes, Holder-K.Grave De Peralta.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTQ2Play 76Pregame prior+24.2Home team on offense−2.3Score differential−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Blowout margin+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 13:24: H.Ahlers pass complete to NAV 14. Catch made by R.Jones at NAV 14. Gain of 14 yards. R.Jones for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — ECU win probability +17.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:07: T.Lavatai pass complete to NAV 35. Catch made by V.Terrell at NAV 35. Gain of 65 yards. V.Terrell for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — NAVY win probability +24.5 pts (now 38%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:20: A.Hall rushed to ECU End Zone for 7 yards. A.Hall for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — NAVY win probability +31.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:12: H.Ahlers pass complete to ECU 33. Catch made by I.Winstead at ECU 33. Gain of 67 yards. I.Winstead for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — ECU win probability +27.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: O.Daffer 26 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-C.Garfield, Holder-L.Larsen. — ECU win probability +25.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NAVY made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:13ECU 4th & 11 at ECU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:56NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:15NAVY 4th & 1 at ECU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    16.2%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:00ECU 4th & 3 at NAVY 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    82.8%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:52ECU 4th & 3 at NAVY 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.8%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    80.4%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:18NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:27ECU 4th & 9 at NAVY 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:12ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:13NAVY 4th & 11 at ECU 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−2.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−4.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:55NAVY 4th & 2 at NAVY 38, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:55ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:33NAVY 4th & 6 at ECU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−2.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:54NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.9%−5.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:24NAVY 4th & 7 at NAVY 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  15. Q2 0:00NAVY 4th & 7 at ECU 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−6.1
    average punt
  16. Q2 0:00ECU 4th & 5 at NAVY 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−6.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q4 13:24ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 12:07NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:20NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:12ECU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:4791% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
90.9%
H.Ahlers pass complete to ECU 25. Catch made by R.Jones at ECU 25. Gain of 11 yards. Tackled by C.Ramos at ECU 36.Similar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
90.7%
K.Mitchell rushed to ECU 38 for 2 yards. Tackled by J.Woodson-Brooks at ECU 38.Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-3
90.6%
K.Mitchell rushed to ECU 35 for -3 yards. Tackled by N.Straw at ECU 35.Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
90.4%
H.Ahlers steps back to pass. H.Ahlers pass incomplete intended for K.Mitchell.Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 11
OWN 35
+39
90.3%
L.Larsen punts 39 yards to NAV 26, Center-C.Garfield. Downed by ECU.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2DOWNS
12 plays · 73 yds · 5:4710% → 12%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
90.3%
M.Haywood rushed to NAV 26 for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Wood at NAV 26.Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
90.2%
D.Fofana rushed to NAV 33 for 7 yards. Tackled by T.Wilk at NAV 33.Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+2
89.9%
D.Fofana rushed to NAV 35 for 2 yards. Tackled by X.Smith; E.Morris at NAV 35.Similar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+3
89.8%
A.Hall rushed to NAV 38 for 3 yards. Tackled by J.Lewis at NAV 38.Similar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
89.4%
M.Haywood rushed to ECU 45 for 17 yards. Pushed out of bounds by T.Wilk at ECU 45.Similar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
89.1%
D.Fofana rushed to ECU 38 for 7 yards. Tackled by J.Wood; I.Hickman at ECU 38. PENALTY on ECU-M.Berry, Offensive Facemask, 15 yards, accepted.Similar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
88.9%
D.Fofana rushed to ECU 10 for 13 yards. Tackled by J.Powell at ECU 10. PENALTY on ECU-J.Wood, Offensive Facemask, 5 yards, accepted.Similar
Q1 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
88.8%
D.Fofana rushed to ECU 4 for 1 yards. Tackled by X.Smith; J.Lewis at ECU 4.Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
88.6%
D.Fofana rushed to ECU 2 for 2 yards. Tackled by G.Stringer at ECU 2.Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
88.5%
T.Lavatai rushed to ECU 1 for 1 yards. Tackled by X.Smith; I.Hickman at ECU 1.Similar
Q1 7:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.3%
T.Lavatai rushed to ECU 1 for 0 yards. Tackled by E.Morris; J.Lewis at ECU 1.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3FG
15 plays · 96 yds · 6:1889% → 87%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+9
88.5%
H.Ahlers pass complete to ECU 1. Catch made by J.Johnson at ECU 1. Gain of 9 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Marshall at ECU 10.Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 1
OWN 10
+5
88.5%
R.Harris rushed to ECU 15 for 5 yards. Tackled by J.Woodson-Brooks; E.Gibbons at ECU 15.Similar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
88.3%
H.Ahlers steps back to pass. H.Ahlers pass incomplete intended for C.Johnson.Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+41
88.3%
R.Harris rushed to NAV 44 for 41 yards. Pushed out of bounds by R.Lane at NAV 44.Similar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
88.6%
R.Harris rushed to NAV 42 for 2 yards. Tackled by J.Woodson-Brooks at NAV 42.Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+3
88.4%
K.Mitchell rushed to NAV 39 for 3 yards. Tackled by M.Williams at NAV 39.Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+2
88.2%
H.Ahlers scrambles to NAV 37 for 2 yards. Tackled by J.Busic at NAV 37.Similar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+16
87.7%
H.Ahlers pass complete to NAV 37. Catch made by C.Johnson at NAV 37. Gain of 16 yards. Pushed out of bounds by NAV at NAV 21.Similar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
88.0%
R.Harris rushed to NAV 21 for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Woodson-Brooks at NAV 21.Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+8
87.8%
H.Ahlers pass complete to NAV 21. Catch made by R.Jones at NAV 21. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by E.Gibbons; N.Straw at NAV 13.Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+6
87.6%
H.Ahlers pass complete to NAV 13. Catch made by I.Winstead at NAV 13. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by E.Gibbons at NAV 7.Similar
Q1 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
87.6%
H.Ahlers pass complete to NAV 7. Catch made by I.Winstead at NAV 7. Gain of 4 yards. Tackled by J.Woodson-Brooks at NAV 3.Similar
Q1 1:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
87.5%
R.Harris rushed to NAV 3 for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Reed; E.Gibbons at NAV 3.Similar
Q1 0:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
87.1%
H.Ahlers steps back to pass. H.Ahlers pass incomplete intended for I.Winstead.Similar
Q1 0:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
87.1%
O.Daffer 19 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-A.Harper, Holder-L.Larsen.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:3013% → 13%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
87.0%
M.Haywood rushed to NAV 30 for 5 yards. Tackled by S.Dourseau at NAV 30.Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-7
86.6%
V.Terrell rushed to NAV 23 for -7 yards. Tackled by S.Dourseau at NAV 23.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+3
87.1%
D.Fofana rushed to NAV 26 for 3 yards. Tackled by C.Stephens at NAV 26.Similar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+41
87.1%
R.Riethman punts 41 yards to ECU 33, Center-E.Nguyen. M.Fleming returned punt from the ECU 33. Tackled by R.Lane at ECU 37.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4287% → 86%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
86.6%
H.Ahlers rushed to ECU 46 for 9 yards. Tackled by C.Ramos at ECU 46.Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+5
86.9%
H.Ahlers pass complete to ECU 46. Catch made by I.Winstead at ECU 46. Gain of 5 yards. Tackled by M.Williams; E.Gibbons at NAV 49.Similar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
86.8%
H.Ahlers steps back to pass. H.Ahlers pass incomplete intended for J.Johnson.Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
86.7%
K.Mitchell rushed to NAV 48 for 1 yards. Tackled by N.Straw; C.Ramos at NAV 48.Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
86.2%
H.Ahlers steps back to pass. H.Ahlers pass incomplete intended for J.Johnson.Similar
Q2 12:27
4TH & 9
OPP 48
+39
85.5%
L.Larsen punts 39 yards to NAV 9, Center-C.Garfield. Fair catch by A.Hassan.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6FUMBLE
13 plays · 49 yds · 7:0114% → 18%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
86.1%
A.Hall rushed to NAV 9 for 0 yards. Tackled by M.Berry at NAV 9.Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+1
85.9%
T.Lavatai rushed to NAV 10 for 1 yards. Tackled by X.Smith at NAV 10.Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+11
85.9%
T.Lavatai pass complete to NAV 10. Catch made by M.Walker at NAV 10. Gain of 11 yards. M.Walker ran out of bounds.Similar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
85.2%
M.Haywood rushed to NAV 21 for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Wood; C.Bates at NAV 21.Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
84.9%
T.Lavatai steps back to pass. T.Lavatai sacked at NAV 14 for yards (E.Morris) PENALTY on ECU-E.Morris, Defensive Targeting, 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
84.3%
M.Haywood rushed to NAV 39 for 3 yards. Tackled by C.Bates; G.Stringer at NAV 39.Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+1
83.6%
T.Lavatai rushed to NAV 40 for 1 yards. Tackled by C.Bates; J.Lewis at NAV 40.Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+6
83.8%
A.Hall rushed to NAV 46 for 6 yards. Tackled by J.Lewis at NAV 46.Similar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
83.0%
A.Hall rushed to ECU 49 for 5 yards. Tackled by J.Wilson; J.Lewis at ECU 49.Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+5
82.5%
A.Hall rushed to ECU 44 for 5 yards. Tackled by J.Wilson at ECU 44.Similar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
82.2%
D.Fofana rushed to ECU 43 for 1 yards. Tackled by X.Smith; I.Hickman at ECU 43.Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+1
81.8%
D.Fofana rushed to ECU 42 for 1 yards. D.Fofana FUMBLES, forced by X.Smith. Fumble RECOVERED by ECU-J.Powell at ECU 42. Tackled by NAV at ECU 42.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0485% → 83%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
84.6%
R.Harris rushed to ECU 45 for 3 yards. Tackled by T.Fletcher; J.Marshall at ECU 45.Similar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-10
84.6%
H.Ahlers steps back to pass. H.Ahlers sacked at ECU 35 for -10 yards (NAV) PENALTY on ECU-H.Ahlers, Intentional Grounding, 0 yards, accepted.Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 17
OWN 35
+9
82.6%
H.Ahlers pass complete to ECU 35. Catch made by R.Harris at ECU 35. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by J.Marshall; J.Busic at ECU 44.Similar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 8
OWN 44
+36
82.7%
L.Larsen punts 36 yards to NAV 20, Center-C.Garfield. Fair catch by A.Hassan.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 3:4617% → 24%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
83.0%
T.Lavatai pass complete to NAV 20. Catch made by J.Umbarger at NAV 20. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by J.Powers at NAV 28.Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
82.1%
A.Hall rushed to NAV 29 for 1 yards. Tackled by M.Edwards; M.Berry at NAV 29.Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+7
82.4%
A.Hall rushed to NAV 36 for 7 yards. Tackled by C.Bates; J.Wilson at NAV 36.Similar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
81.7%
A.Hall rushed to NAV 38 for 2 yards. Tackled by J.Wilson at NAV 38.Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+31
81.1%
T.Lavatai pass complete to NAV 38. Catch made by V.Terrell at NAV 38. Gain of 31 yards. Tackled by S.Dourseau at ECU 31.Similar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
78.8%
A.Hall rushed to ECU 25 for 6 yards. Tackled by J.Powell; J.Wilson at ECU 25.Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+5
78.4%
M.Haywood rushed to ECU 20 for 5 yards. Tackled by J.Lewis at ECU 20.Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
78.5%
T.Lavatai steps back to pass. T.Lavatai pass incomplete intended for M.Haywood.Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-1
79.4%
A.Hall rushed to ECU 21 for -1 yards. Tackled by S.Ware; I.Hickman at ECU 21.Similar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 11
OPP 21
0
76.3%
D.Davies 37 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-B.Rhodes, Holder-K.Grave De Peralta.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
79.8%
H.Ahlers kneels at the ECU 37.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5824% → 24%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
76.3%
A.Hall rushed to NAV 31 for 1 yards. Tackled by S.Ware; X.Smith at NAV 31.Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+3
76.0%
T.Lavatai rushed to NAV 34 for 3 yards. Tackled by T.Wilk at NAV 34.Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+4
75.8%
T.Lavatai rushed to NAV 38 for 4 yards. Tackled by J.Powell at NAV 38.Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+48
75.8%
K.Grave De Peralta punts 48 yards to ECU 14, Center-E.Nguyen. Fair catch by M.Fleming.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:5278% → 76%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
77.7%
H.Ahlers pass complete to ECU 14. Catch made by C.Johnson at ECU 14. Gain of 13 yards. Pushed out of bounds by R.Lane at ECU 27.Similar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
77.8%
K.Mitchell rushed to ECU 29 for 2 yards. Tackled by N.Straw at ECU 29.Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+11
77.2%
H.Ahlers rushed to ECU 40 for 11 yards. Tackled by J.Marshall; R.Lane at ECU 40.Similar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
78.3%
R.Harris rushed to ECU 40 for 0 yards. Tackled by C.Ramos at ECU 40.Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
77.3%
H.Ahlers steps back to pass. H.Ahlers pass incomplete intended for R.Harris.Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+5
76.3%
H.Ahlers pass complete to ECU 40. Catch made by I.Winstead at ECU 40. Gain of 5 yards. Tackled by E.Larry at ECU 45.Similar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+36
75.9%
L.Larsen punts 36 yards to NAV 19, Center-C.Garfield. A.Hassan returned punt from the NAV 19. Tackled by M.Edwards at NAV 24.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12DOWNS
14 plays · 46 yds · 7:1226% → 33%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
73.6%
M.Haywood rushed to NAV 30 for 6 yards. Pushed out of bounds by S.Dourseau at NAV 30.Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 4
OWN 30
-1
72.1%
D.Fofana rushed to NAV 29 for -1 yards. Tackled by J.Powers at NAV 29.Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+5
73.3%
T.Lavatai rushed to NAV 34 for 5 yards. Tackled by C.Bates at NAV 34.Similar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
71.9%
A.Hall rushed to NAV 37 for 3 yards. Tackled by J.Lewis at NAV 37.Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
70.6%
A.Hall rushed to NAV 37 for 0 yards. Tackled by S.Dourseau at NAV 37.Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+18
71.4%
T.Lavatai pass complete to NAV 37. Catch made by V.Terrell at NAV 37. Gain of 18 yards. Tackled by M.Berry at ECU 45.Similar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
67.7%
T.Lavatai rushed to ECU 40 for 5 yards. Tackled by G.Stringer; M.Berry at ECU 40.Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+4
66.8%
T.Lavatai rushed to ECU 36 for 4 yards. Tackled by J.Shuford at ECU 36.Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
66.6%
A.Hall rushed to ECU 34 for 2 yards. Tackled by C.Bates at ECU 34.Similar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
64.6%
A.Hall rushed to ECU 34 for 0 yards. Tackled by C.Bates; S.Mims at ECU 34.Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
63.9%
A.Hall rushed to ECU 33 for 1 yards. Tackled by C.Bates; M.Berry at ECU 33.Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+3
64.9%
T.Lavatai rushed to ECU 30 for 3 yards. Tackled by J.Lewis at ECU 30.Similar
Q3 2:33
4TH & 6
OPP 30
0
66.6%
T.Lavatai rushed to ECU 30 for 0 yards. Tackled by C.Bates; C.Stephens at ECU 30.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 4:0471% → 90%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
71.3%
R.Harris rushed to ECU 30 for 0 yards. Tackled by T.Fletcher; N.Straw at ECU 30.Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
70.4%
H.Ahlers steps back to pass. H.Ahlers pass incomplete intended for C.Johnson.Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
68.6%
PENALTY on ECU-I.Winstead, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+18
68.4%
H.Ahlers pass complete to ECU 25. Catch made by J.Johnson at ECU 25. Gain of 18 yards. Tackled by NAV at ECU 43.Similar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
73.0%
H.Ahlers pass complete to ECU 43. Catch made by I.Winstead at ECU 43. Gain of 14 yards. Tackled by J.Woodson-Brooks at NAV 43.Similar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
73.9%
R.Harris rushed to NAV 19 for 24 yards. Tackled by E.Gibbons at NAV 19.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
74.5%
R.Harris rushed to NAV 19 for 0 yards. Tackled by C.Ramos; D.Berniard at NAV 19.Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
74.3%
PENALTY on ECU-S.Calhoun, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+10
72.3%
H.Ahlers rushed to NAV 14 for 10 yards. Tackled by C.Cromwell at NAV 14.Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+14
89.8%
H.Ahlers pass complete to NAV 14. Catch made by R.Jones at NAV 14. Gain of 14 yards. R.Jones for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1114% → 38%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.7%
T.Lavatai steps back to pass. T.Lavatai pass incomplete intended for M.Haywood.Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
85.8%
A.Hall rushed to NAV 25 for 0 yards. Tackled by J.Wood; I.Hickman at NAV 25.Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
86.6%
T.Lavatai pass complete to NAV 25. Catch made by J.Umbarger at NAV 25. Gain of 10 yards. Tackled by M.Fleming at NAV 35.Similar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
62.1%
T.Lavatai pass complete to NAV 35. Catch made by V.Terrell at NAV 35. Gain of 65 yards. V.Terrell for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.1%
R.Harris rushed to ECU 25 for 0 yards. R.Harris FUMBLES, forced by N.Barber. Fumble RECOVERED by NAV-E.Gibbons at ECU 25. Tackled by ECU at ECU 25.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:3044% → 77%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
56.0%
A.Hall rushed to ECU 20 for 5 yards. Tackled by T.Wilk; S.Ware at ECU 20.Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+3
55.3%
A.Hall rushed to ECU 17 for 3 yards. Tackled by S.Ware at ECU 17.Similar
Q4 10:33
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+4
56.5%
T.Lavatai rushed to ECU 13 for 4 yards. Tackled by G.Stringer at ECU 13.Similar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
54.2%
M.Haywood rushed to ECU 7 for 6 yards. Tackled by C.Bates at ECU 7.Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
23.2%
A.Hall rushed to ECU End Zone for 7 yards. A.Hall for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:0335% → 65%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
34.6%
H.Ahlers pass complete to ECU 25. Catch made by J.Johnson at ECU 25. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by E.Larry; J.Marshall at ECU 34.Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
37.4%
R.Harris rushed to ECU 33 for -1 yards. Tackled by D.Berniard at ECU 33.Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+67
64.9%
H.Ahlers pass complete to ECU 33. Catch made by I.Winstead at ECU 33. Gain of 67 yards. I.Winstead for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 4:2940% → 46%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
59.6%
M.Haywood rushed to NAV 22 for 3 yards. Tackled by J.Wilson at NAV 22.Similar
Q4 7:17
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-3
58.0%
T.Lavatai rushed to NAV 19 for -3 yards. T.Lavatai FUMBLES. Fumble RECOVERED by NAV-T.Lavatai at NAV 19. Tackled by ECU at NAV 19.Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+9
59.9%
T.Lavatai pass complete to NAV 19. Catch made by M.Walker at NAV 19. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by ECU at NAV 28.Similar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+1
59.0%
A.Hall rushed to NAV 29 for 1 yards. Tackled by X.Smith; S.Dourseau at NAV 29.Similar
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
55.5%
M.Haywood rushed to NAV 45 for 16 yards. Pushed out of bounds by J.Wood at NAV 45.Similar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
51.0%
T.Lavatai rushed to ECU 47 for 8 yards. Tackled by J.Powell at ECU 47.Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
48.5%
M.Haywood rushed to ECU 47 for 0 yards. Tackled by M.Fleming; G.Stringer at ECU 47.Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
48.9%
A.Hall rushed to ECU 47 for 0 yards. Tackled by M.Berry; J.Powell at ECU 47.Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+5
51.1%
PENALTY on NAV-T.Lavatai, Delay of Game, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+38
54.2%
K.Grave De Peralta punts 38 yards to ECU 14, Center-E.Nguyen. Fair catch by M.Fleming.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19INT
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:4260% → 65%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
60.0%
R.Harris rushed to ECU 14 for 0 yards. Tackled by D.Berniard; T.Fletcher at ECU 14.Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-1
58.8%
H.Ahlers steps back to pass. H.Ahlers sacked at ECU 13 for -1 yards (C.Cromwell; J.Busic)Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 11
OWN 13
+14
55.5%
H.Ahlers pass complete to ECU 13. Catch made by I.Winstead at ECU 13. Gain of 14 yards. Tackled by J.Hutson at ECU 27.Similar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
59.3%
R.Harris rushed to ECU 30 for 3 yards. Tackled by N.Straw; J.Busic at ECU 30.Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
59.3%
H.Ahlers steps back to pass. H.Ahlers pass incomplete intended for I.Winstead.Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+15
56.4%
H.Ahlers pass complete to ECU 30. Catch made by R.Jones at ECU 30. Gain of 15 yards. Tackled by J.Marshall at ECU 45. PENALTY on NAV-J.Busic, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, declined.Similar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
63.2%
H.Ahlers pass complete to ECU 45. Catch made by I.Winstead at ECU 45. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by E.Gibbons at NAV 46.Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
65.1%
H.Ahlers pass INTERCEPTED at NAV 35. Intercepted by T.Fletcher at NAV 35. Tackled by ECU at NAV 35.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0068% → 87%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
67.5%
R.Harris rushed to NAV 27 for -2 yards. Tackled by C.Cromwell at NAV 27.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+7
67.2%
H.Ahlers pass complete to NAV 27. Catch made by I.Winstead at NAV 27. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by M.Williams at NAV 20.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+7
65.1%
H.Ahlers pass complete to NAV 20. Catch made by I.Winstead at NAV 20. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by R.Lane; C.Cromwell at NAV 13. PENALTY on NAV-NAV, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, declined.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
67.5%
H.Ahlers rushed to NAV 11 for 2 yards. Tackled by J.Woodson-Brooks at NAV 11.Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
67.5%
H.Ahlers steps back to pass. H.Ahlers pass incomplete intended for C.Johnson.Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+2
65.1%
H.Ahlers pass complete to NAV 11. Catch made by C.Johnson at NAV 11. Gain of 2 yards. Tackled by C.Ramos; M.Williams at NAV 9.Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+26
87.1%
O.Daffer 26 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-C.Garfield, Holder-L.Larsen.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0021% → 28%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
78.9%
D.Fofana rushed to ECU 17 for 8 yards. Tackled by T.Wilk at ECU 17.Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+2
78.9%
D.Fofana rushed to ECU 15 for 2 yards. Tackled by T.Wilk at ECU 15.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
78.9%
D.Fofana rushed to ECU 14 for 1 yards. Tackled by C.Bates; X.McIver at ECU 14.Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+1
78.9%
D.Fofana rushed to ECU 13 for 1 yards. Tackled by X.Smith; J.Lewis at ECU 13.Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+1
79.9%
M.Haywood rushed to ECU 12 for 1 yards. Tackled by I.Hickman at ECU 12.Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 12
0
71.8%
D.Davies 29 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-B.Rhodes, Holder-K.Grave De Peralta.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22MISSED FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0078% → 75%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
77.8%
H.Ahlers steps back to pass. H.Ahlers pass incomplete intended for ECU.Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
77.8%
H.Ahlers pass complete to NAV 25. Catch made by I.Winstead at NAV 25. Gain of 5 yards. Tackled by M.Williams at NAV 20.Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
76.4%
H.Ahlers steps back to pass. H.Ahlers pass incomplete intended for I.Winstead.Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 20
0
75.2%
O.Daffer 37 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-A.Harper, Holder-L.Larsen.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-75.2
TD · Q4 9:20
A.Hall rushed to ECU End Zone for 7 yards. A.Hall for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-31
TD · Q4 8:12
H.Ahlers pass complete to ECU 33. Catch made by I.Winstead at ECU 33. Gain of 67 yards. I.Winstead for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+27.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com