2022 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2022 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadCAM aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreCAM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:30 · Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Elijah Morris and Myles Berry for a loss of 21 yards to the Camp 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 9:43: Caleb Dowden 31 yd FG GOOD — CAM win probability +0.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: CAM has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:01: Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 61 yds for a TD, (Caleb Dowden KICK) — CAM win probability +0.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: CAM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:10: C.J. Johnson 21 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Owen Daffer Kick) — ECU win probability +2.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:47: H. Ahlers pass,to J. Johnson for 28 yds for a TD, (O. Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +3.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:36: H. Ahlers run for 2 yds for a TD, (O. Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 0 of 6CAM made the numbers' call on 10 of 16
- Q1 14:54CAM 4th & 6 at ECU 26, tiedClose callWent for it · 2.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.8%−<0.139% to convertField goal2.8%64% to makePunt2.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 9:43CAM 4th & 7 at ECU 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.6%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call3.7%84% to makePunt3.2%−0.4average punt
- Q1 9:35ECU 4th & 6 at CAM 24, down 3Close callWent for it · 96.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.2%−<0.139% to convertField goal96.2%68% to makePunt95.8%−0.4average punt
- Q1 4:00ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 43, down 3Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snapGo for it94.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:00CAM 4th & 7 at CAM 44, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snapGo for it5.1%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.1%average punt
- Q1 0:10CAM 4th & 7 at CAM 44, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.4%average punt
- Q2 12:35CAM 4th & 7 at CAM 13, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.8%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.0%average punt
- Q2 11:08CAM 4th & 7 at CAM 13, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snapGo for it6.1%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.3%average punt
- Q2 11:08ECU 4th & 14 at CAM 37, up 4Close callPunted · 93.1% before the snapGo for it93.0%−0.119% to convertField goal93.1%40% to makePuntTheir call93.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 7:49ECU 4th & 14 at CAM 37, up 4Close callPunted · 92.2% before the snapGo for it92.2%−0.219% to convertField goal92.3%40% to makePuntTheir call92.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 3:37CAM 4th & 8 at ECU 17, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.5% before the snapGo for it9.2%−0.232% to convertField goalTheir call9.4%80% to makePunt7.8%−1.6average punt
- Q2 0:15CAM 4th & 2 at CAM 29, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.5%−0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q2 0:08CAM 4th & 2 at CAM 29, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snapGo for it5.5%−0.257% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%average punt
- Q3 11:47ECU 4th & 8 at CAM 28, up 11Close callWent for it · 93.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.5%−0.134% to convertField goal93.7%60% to makePunt92.1%−1.6average punt
- Q3 7:36CAM 4th & 7 at ECU 27, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%−0.136% to convertField goal0.9%62% to makePunt0.2%−0.8average punt
- Q3 5:26CAM 4th & 7 at ECU 27, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%−<0.136% to convertField goal0.9%62% to makePunt0.2%−0.7average punt
- Q4 12:30CAM 4th & 12 at ECU 36, down 32Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.124% to convertField goal0.1%42% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 11:11CAM 4th & 2 at CAM 33, down 39Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 9:07CAM 4th & 2 at CAM 33, down 39Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:31ECU 4th & 8 at CAM 30, up 39Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.134% to convertField goal99.9%56% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 5:31CAM 4th & 15 at CAM 35, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 2:24CAM 4th & 15 at CAM 35, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CAM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 6:17ECU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.9%97% to makeGo for two95.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:01CAM Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.0%97% to makeGo for two5.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:40ECU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.9%97% to makeGo for two93.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:10ECU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%97% to makeGo for two93.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:47ECU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:36ECU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:52ECU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:11ECU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCAMDrive 1FG12 plays · 65 yds · 5:113% → 4%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
97.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 12 yds to the Camp 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
97.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Julian Hill for 19 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+9
97.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Julian Hill for 9 yds to the ECaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
97.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ezeriah Anderson for 7 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 8
-1
97.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Julian Hill for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2TD7 plays · 37 yds · 4:3496% → 96%
CAMDrive 3TD5 plays · 71 yds · 1:104% → 5%
Q1 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+11
95.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Austin Hite for 11 yds to the Camp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+4
95.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Bryant Barr for 4 yds to the Camp 39Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+61
94.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 61 yds for a TD, (Caleb Dowden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:0195% → 95%
Q1 5:01
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+8
94.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 8 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+8
94.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 8 yds to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 2
OWN 43
-60
94.7%
Luke Larsen punt for a loss of 23 yards , Josh McNeely returns for a loss of 60 yards to the Camp 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 24 yds · 3:505% → 7%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
94.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jai Williams for 10 yds to the Camp 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+2
94.6%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Bryant Barr for 2 yds to the Camp 44Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
94.6%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Bryant Barr for no gain to the Camp 44Similar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
94.7%
Corey Petersen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 16Similar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
93.5%
Corey Petersen punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6TD6 plays · 84 yds · 2:3093% → 94%
CAMDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:276% → 6%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
93.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Chaney Fitzgerald for a loss of 1 yard to the Camp 9Similar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
94.2%
Corey Petersen punt for 38 yds , Malik Fleming returns for no gain to the ECaro 49Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
93.9%
Corey Petersen punt for 38 yds , Malik Fleming returns for no gain to the ECaro 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 3:1994% → 92%
Q2 11:08
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+16
93.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 16 yds to the Camp 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
93.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for a loss of 3 yards to the Camp 36Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-4
93.7%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Gabe Holmes and Ethan Rennels for a loss of 4 yards to the Camp 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 9MISSED FG11 plays · 63 yds · 4:127% → 9%
Q2 7:49
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+22
92.7%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to NaQuari Rogers for 22 yds to the Camp 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
92.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 7 yds to the Camp 46Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+26
92.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ezeriah Anderson for 26 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10TD7 plays · 80 yds · 2:2791% → 95%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
91.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Ryan Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 16Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+25
91.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 25 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
91.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 14 yds to the Camp 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 0:566% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13TD9 plays · 70 yds · 3:0594% → 97%
CAMDrive 14INT8 plays · 70 yds · 1:554% → 4%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+27
96.3%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ezeriah Anderson for 27 yds to the Camp 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+13
96.2%
Hajj-Malik Williams run for 13 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
95.8%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Austin Hite for 15 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+11
95.5%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Jalen Kelsey for 11 yds to the ECaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15TD8 plays · 78 yds · 2:1198% → 99%
CAMDrive 16DOWNS8 plays · 53 yds · 2:101% → 1%
Q3 7:36
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+29
99.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Julian Hill for 29 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+5
99.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to NaQuari Rogers for 5 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+5
99.1%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to NaQuari Rogers for 5 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD7 plays · 78 yds · 3:34100% → 100%
Q3 5:26
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+17
99.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 17 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
99.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 5 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q3 5:26
3RD & 2
50
+33
99.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 33 yds to the Camp 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 18DOWNS12 plays · 18 yds · 4:220% → 0%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
99.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Austin Hite for 19 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+7
99.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Ezeriah Anderson for 7 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q4 12:30
4TH & 12
OPP 36
-21
99.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Elijah Morris and Myles Berry for a loss of 21 yards to the Camp 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19TD3 plays · 43 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:040% → 0%
Q4 11:11
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+11
100.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to Julian Hill for 11 yds to the Camp 33Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Hajj-Malik Williams pass complete to NaQuari Rogers for no gain to the Camp 33Similar
Q4 11:11
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Corey Petersen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 9:07
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Corey Petersen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21DOWNS8 plays · 37 yds · 3:36100% → 100%
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
99.9%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Aaron Jarman for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
99.9%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Kerry King for 12 yds to the Camp 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
99.9%
Mason Garcia pass complete to Marlon Gunn for 2 yds to the Camp 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CAMDrive 22PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 3:070% → 0%
Q4 5:31
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-8
100.0%
Hajj-Malik Williams sacked by Elijah Robinson for a loss of 8 yards to the Camp 35Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Corey Petersen punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Corey Petersen punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Malik Fleming at the ECaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23END OF GAME7 plays · 53 yds · 2:24100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:47
H. Ahlers pass,to J. Johnson for 28 yds for a TD, (O. Daffer KICK)
+3.3
TD · Q2 1:10
C.J. Johnson 21 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Owen Daffer Kick)
+2.7
TD · Q3 7:36
H. Ahlers run for 2 yds for a TD, (O. Daffer KICK)
+1.7